Market Overview

Gold and oil slip as equities rise on stronger ISM ahead of RBA 

ADFX Team

Market Recap 

XAUUSD
XAUUSD traversed a 481.66-point span in the 01:00–23:57 session, equivalent to 10.01% of the open, and registered fresh 5‑day and 10‑day lows. The market opened at 4809.55, set the day’s high at 4884.48 by 02:22, then moved lower to the session trough at 4402.82 at 08:38. It pared part of the decline into the afternoon and closed at 4658.40, a fall of 151.15 points or 3.143% from the open. The close sat slightly above the session midpoint at 4643.65 while remaining below the 4700 handle. Price action was bookended by an early push toward the upper 4800s that stopped short of 4900 and a subsequent drive to the intraday low, after which it recovered into the lower half of the range by the close. On the daily timeframe, the open at 4809.55 was above the 21‑day EMA at 4805.85 and the daily Bollinger midline at 4797.56, whereas the close finished below both references, underscoring a session that transitioned from trading around those daily baselines to ending beneath them. The intraday low established the latest multi‑day floor, while the overall session remained below the 5‑day high at 5598.98. Into the finish, the sub‑4700 settlement and a close just over the day’s midpoint framed the session as one that began with an early high, extended to a new multi‑day low by mid‑morning, and ended with a partial retracement within the day’s broad range.

US30 
US30 ended the session at 49,402.17, a gain of 619.17 points (1.269%), after a 1,094.02-point intraday span equating to 2.24% of the open. Trading began at 48,783.0 and moved lower into the morning, setting the day’s trough at 48,421.45 at 08:38, which also marked a 5‑day low. Price then advanced through the 49,000 figure and continued higher into the evening, printing the session peak at 49,515.47 at 22:06, just beyond the 49,510 handle and establishing a 5‑day high. The low briefly undercut 48,500, while the late-session high tested the 49,500 area; the market finished near the upper end of the day’s range, roughly 113 points beneath the high and well above the open. On a multi-timeframe view, the close came in above several reference levels: the D1 Bollinger midline at 49,188.43, the H4 EMA(21) at 49,010.12, and the H1 EMA(21) at 49,097.21. H4 RSI(14) stood at 62.85. The session thus featured an early downside extension from the open, followed by a steady recovery that carried into the late hours and a final push to the 49,500 handle before ending slightly below the peak. By the close, the market had traversed from a fresh 5‑day low in the morning to a fresh 5‑day high in the evening, with the settlement positioned closer to the high than the low and above the 49,000 round number. 

USOIL 
USOUSD ended the 01:00–23:59 session at 62.37, down 1.67 or 2.6% from the 64.04 open. The high was set immediately at 01:00 at 64.04, and price moved lower into mid-morning, printing the session trough at 61.46 at 11:05. The intraday span was 2.58, representing 4.03% of the opening level and about 130% of the daily ATR. By the close at 23:59, the market had retraced part of the decline, finishing nearer to the low than to the high—0.91 above the day’s floor and 1.67 beneath the early peak—leaving the settlement in the lower half of the range. Round-number levels featured on the day, with 64 tested at the open and trading centering around the 62 handle late in the session; the settlement also left the instrument below 63. The session low at 61.46 aligned with a flagged 5-day low, while the high matched the opening print and was not exceeded thereafter. On higher timeframes, daily momentum remained positive, with the D1 MACD at 1.3; on the H4 chart, the MACD signal registered 0.33. On the H1 timeframe, the 20-period simple moving average stood at 62.04, and settlement was slightly above that reference. Overall, the day’s range and close highlighted a top-to-bottom move from the open into late morning, followed by a partial rebound into the close without reclaiming the opening level. 

Economic Calendar Recap & Preview 

U.S. manufacturing momentum surprised to the upside, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI jumping to 52.6 from 47.9 and well above the 47.4 forecast, while ISM Prices Paid edged up to 59.0 from 58.5 versus a 58.4 forecast, signaling firmer activity alongside still-elevated input costs. Looking ahead, the Reserve Bank of Australia announces its interest rate decision at 06:30, with the cash rate previously at 3.6; the policy meeting and any accompanying guidance will be scrutinized for the growth–inflation balance, and the release could trigger AUD and local rates volatility. At 17:00, U.S. JOLTS Job Openings are due, with a forecast of 7.54 after 7.15 previously; a higher-than-expected print would suggest tighter labor demand, a basic signal that can support wage growth and associated inflation pressure. Into the Asia evening, New Zealand’s Employment Change quarter over quarter arrives at 23:45, with a -0.5 forecast following 0.0 previously, setting the tone for local labor conditions ahead of broader inflation and policy assessments. No major speeches are slated in the immediate run-up beyond the RBA meeting, keeping the data in focus, and together these releases offer a cross-check on how manufacturing resilience, labor demand, and Australasian employment trends are evolving across key economies. 

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