Market Overview

Gold firms while oil extends gains on mixed growth and inflation cues 

ADFX Team

Market Recap 

XAUUSD 
XAUUSD finished the session at 5280.18, up 94.91 points or 1.83% from the 5185.27 open, after a 114.09-point range that represented 2.2% of the opening level and 92% of the D1 ATR. Price established the day’s low at 5166.97 at 03:08, stayed above the 5160 handle, and then pushed to the high of 5281.06 at 23:53, with the close ending within 0.9 of that peak. The settlement sat at the top of the session’s range and just beneath the 5300 round number, while the high marked new 5-day and 10-day highs set in the final minutes of trade. From a short-term technical perspective, the market opened slightly below the H4 21-EMA at 5188.12 and the H1 20-SMA at 5210.21, and it closed above both references, leaving the last print more than 90 points above the H1 average and around 92 points above the H4 average. The intraday profile was defined by a low formed early and a high printed late, placing the closing level at the upper extreme of the distribution. Notable round-number context included the defense of the 5160s on the downside and the late-session approach toward the 5300 handle on the upside. With the session posting fresh 5D and 10D highs and finishing near the peak, the day concluded with price action concentrated in the upper end of the established range. 

USOIL 
USOIL closed at 67.41, up 1.99 or 3.04% from the prior session, after trading between 64.95 and 67.92. The session ran from 01:00 to 23:59 server time, opening at 65.43 and quickly probing below 65.00 with the session low at 03:09, then advancing through 66.00 and 67.00 to print the high at 16:00 near 68.00. The intraday range spanned 2.97, equivalent to 4.53% of the opening price. From the open, price slipped 0.48 to the low, then rallied 2.97 from low to high, before settling 0.51 off the peak and 2.46 above the trough, placing the close in the upper portion of the day’s range. The 16:00 peak at 67.92 set fresh 5‑ and 10‑day highs, while the earlier sub‑65.00 dip was not revisited. Into the final hours, trading held above 67.00 and the high sat 0.08 below the round 68.00 level. On the higher time frames, spot remains above the 21‑day EMA at 64.61 and the 50‑day SMA at 61.54, and also above the daily Bollinger midline at 64.63. Daily RSI(14) printed 61.51, above the 50 marker. Overall, the day featured an early low followed by an afternoon high and a finish near the top of the range, with notable interaction around round numbers 65.00, 66.00, and 67.00, and a session high just shy of 68.00, reinforcing the multi‑day highs registered during the move. 

Economic Calendar Recap & Preview 

A mixed set of releases featured a sharp Canadian growth miss alongside steady U.S. producer prices and firm Tokyo inflation. Canada’s GDP annualized quarter over quarter contracted 0.6 percent, well below the 0.5 percent forecast and down from 2.6 percent previously, underscoring a notable loss of momentum into year-end. In the United States, PPI rose 0.5 percent month over month, matching both the prior 0.5 percent and the 0.5 percent consensus, keeping upstream price pressures stable. From Japan, Tokyo CPI excluding food and energy increased 2.5 percent year over year, in line with the 2.5 percent forecast and a touch above 2.4 percent prior, while retail sales jumped 4.1 percent month over month, signaling a solid start to the year for consumer activity. Looking ahead, there are no scheduled economic releases over the next 24 hours in server time. With no data prints due, the calendar offers little to shift near-term narratives; any notable market moves may instead stem from positions adjusting to the latest growth and inflation signals rather than fresh headlines. 

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