On Monday (August 17), gold extended its gains. Silver, the euro, and U.S. crude oil also traded stronger, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average underperformed. On the fundamental front, expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes continued to ease.
The U.S. Dollar Index slipped 0.07%. U.S. crude oil surged 2.91% (4.1% intraday range), silver climbed 1.68% (3.0% range), gold edged up 0.91% (1.4% range), the euro rose 0.10% (0.4% range), while the Dow Jones eased 0.47% (0.7% range). Meanwhile, the S&P 500 edged down 0.44%, the Nasdaq fell 0.21%, Germany’s DAX declined 0.50%, the UK’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.27%, the Hang Seng Index added 0.42%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 0.75%, Australia’s ASX 200 fell 0.49%, and China’s A50 advanced 1.41%.
Precious Metals
Gold (XAUUSD) settled at 4,415.76 on Monday, posting a modest daily gain of 0.91%. Silver (XAGUSD) also advanced, rising 1.68%. Silver showed noticeably greater volatility than gold today, reflecting its higher-beta characteristics.
From a technical perspective, gold closed firmly above its 5-day SMA (4,383.19). Key resistance is seen at 4450.00 (round-number level, 10-day high), while support is located at 4385.56 (5-day SMA, 100-day SMA). The MACD histogram continued to narrow, suggesting slowing short-term momentum. Daily RSI stands at 66, indicating bullish momentum remains intact.
A decisive break above 4450.00 could extend the short-term uptrend. Conversely, a move below 4385.56 would require a reassessment of the current bullish structure.
Key Levels: Resistance 4450.00 | Support 4385.56
Euro
The euro (EURUSD) closed at 1.15797 on Monday, gaining 0.10% on the day. EUR/USD edged higher and reached its highest level in 20 trading days during the session. The pair has now posted gains for three consecutive trading days.
However, the pair retreated into the close, finishing around the lower third (33%) of the day’s range, suggesting late-session momentum weakened. Price remains above the 5-day SMA (1.15484) and has recorded three straight higher closes. Resistance is seen at 1.16136 (session high, 10-day high), while support lies at 1.15717 (100-day SMA, 200-day EMA). Daily RSI is 63, reflecting positive momentum.
A confirmed break above 1.16136 could open further upside potential.
Key Levels: Resistance 1.16136 | Support 1.15717
Dow Jones
The Dow Jones (DJ30) closed at 53,468.9 on Monday, slipping 0.47%. The index remained in consolidation near recent highs.
It finished close to the session low, indicating selling pressure persisted into the close. Price continues to trade below the 5-day SMA (53,744.5). Resistance is located at 53,698.2 (10-day EMA, 5-day EMA), while support is seen at 53,279.3 (10-day low, 21-day EMA). Daily RSI stands at 54, indicating neutral momentum, while the MACD has formed a bearish crossover.
Unless price regains 53,698.2, the short-term bearish structure may remain in place.
Key Levels: Resistance 53,698.2 | Support 53,279.3
U.S. Crude Oil
U.S. crude oil (USOIL) settled at 84.806 on Monday, surging 2.91%. The contract reached a 10-day high during the session and closed near the day’s high, indicating buyers remained firmly in control.
Price also held above the 5-day SMA (82.917). Resistance is located at 86.000 (round-number level, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement), while support is found at 84.000 (round-number level, 50.0% Fibonacci retracement). Daily RSI stands at 56, suggesting neutral momentum.
A confirmed break above 86.000 could open further upside.
Key Levels: Resistance 86.000 | Support 84.000
Key Price Levels
XAUUSD — Resistance: 4450.00 (round-number level, 10-day high) / 4500.00 (upper Bollinger Band, major psychological level); Support: 4385.56 (5-day SMA, 100-day SMA) / 4374.99 (session low, 5-day EMA)
XAGUSD — Resistance: 66.573 (session high, 10-day high) / 67.000 (round-number level, upper Bollinger Band); Support: 65.174 (75-day EMA, major psychological level) / 64.869 (session low, 5-day SMA)
EURUSD — Resistance: 1.15849 (previous day’s high) / 1.16136 (session high, 10-day high); Support: 1.15717 (100-day SMA, 200-day EMA) / 1.15632 (session low, 250-day EMA)
DJ30 — Resistance: 53,500.0 (round-number level, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement) / 53,698.2 (10-day EMA, 5-day EMA); Support: 53,279.3 (10-day low, 21-day EMA) / 53,148.9 (50.0% Fibonacci retracement, 20-day SMA)
USOIL — Resistance: 85.000 (session high, 10-day high) / 86.000 (round-number level, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement); Support: 84.000 (round-number level, 50.0% Fibonacci retracement) / 83.000 (round-number level, 20-day SMA)
So far this week, silver has gained 1.87%, gold is up 1.06%, the euro has risen 0.12%, while the Dow Jones has declined 0.42%.
Gold has traded within a weekly range of 4,367.22–4,428.81, with the current close positioned in the upper part of that range.
From a medium-term perspective, gold is trading above its 20-week moving average (4,389.58, approximately five months) and remains above its 100-week moving average (approximately two years), suggesting the medium-term uptrend remains intact.
Economic Data Review & Outlook
Overnight Data
- Japan’s Quarterly GDP came in at 0.3%, above expectations.
- Japan’s Annualized GDP was 1.1%, also above expectations (previous reading revised to 1.9%).
- Japan’s GDP Price Index (YoY) came in at 2.6%, below expectations.
- Japan’s Net Exports Contribution to GDP (QoQ) was 0.5%, exceeding expectations.
Today’s Focus
UK Labour Productivity (Quarterly) ★★
Previous: 0.9%
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