Market Themes

From a cross-asset structure perspective, a weakening US dollar became the common driver: the US Dollar Index fell 0.88%, Gold rose 4.37%, EUR rose 0.88%, and GBP rose 0.54%. The US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change came in at 4.405M, below expectations.

Gold rose 4.37%; EUR rose 0.88%; GBP rose 0.54%; Dow Jones rose 0.25%; US Crude Oil fell 0.21%.

On August 19, Gold (XAUUSD) closed higher, up 189.5 pips, closing at 4,523.82, surging 4.37%. In the Asian session at 01:00, it dipped to around 4,324.60 before stabilizing, and in the US session at 20:45, it touched 4,523.92. During intraday trading, it broke above the 4,350 mark and stabilized above it. The full-day amplitude was equivalent to 193% of its 14-day average daily volatility, ranking at the 95th percentile over the past 20 days. In the short-to-medium term, it stays above both MA5 (4,399.77) and MA20 (4,227.15) (opening below them intraday and closing above); the long-term moving average MA200 (4,552.93) forms overhead resistance. Key resistance sits at 4,595.24 (60-day high); downside support lies at 4,399.31–4,400.00 (round number, Fib 23.6%). From a technical perspective, short-term upside momentum has strengthened significantly; if it can further break through key resistance above, medium-to-short-term upside space is expected to open up further.

Overnight, it also strengthened in tandem: Euro (EURUSD) closed at 1.16763, up slightly by 0.88%. In the Asian session at 01:15, it dipped to around 1.15696 before stabilizing, and in the US session at 19:30, it touched 1.16787. During intraday trading, it broke above the 1.16000 mark and stabilized above it. Reclaiming MA5 (1.15853) and MA20 (1.15119), its short-term structure repaired. Key resistance sits at 1.18000 (round number); downside support lies at 1.16500 (round number). From a technical perspective, the upward momentum continued; if it effectively breaks above the previous high, medium-to-short-term upside space will open up further.

Strengthening on the same day, British Pound (GBPUSD) closed at 1.36052, up slightly by 0.54%. In the Asian session at 01:15, it dipped to around 1.35227 before stabilizing, and in the US session at 14:30, it touched 1.36298. During intraday trading, it broke above the 1.36000 mark and stabilized above it. Reclaiming MA5 (1.35396) and MA20 (1.34514), its short-term structure repaired. Key resistance sits at 1.36500 (round number); downside support lies at 1.35493–1.35500 (round number, 5-day EMA). From a technical perspective, the upward momentum continued; if it effectively breaks above the previous high, medium-to-short-term upside space will open up further.

US Crude Oil (USOIL) closed at 84.955, down slightly by 0.21%. Immediate resistance sits at 86.490 (day high); key resistance at 87.000 (round number); downside support lies at 83.000–83.019 (round number, 10-day EMA).

Dow Jones (DJ30) rose 136.0 points, closing at 53,496.9, up slightly by 0.25%. Immediate resistance sits at 53,739.0 (day high); key resistance at 54,000.0–54,018.1 (round number, Fib 23.6%); downside support lies at 53,000.0–53,037.2 (round number, 25-day SMA).

Key Levels

• XAUUSD —— Resistance: 4,595.24 (60-day high) / 4,750.00 (major round number) / 4,850.00 (round number); Support: 4,399.31–4,400.00 (round number, Fib 23.6%) / 4,310.92 (previous week low) / 4,197.62–4,200.00 (round number, Fib 61.8%)
• EURUSD —— Resistance: 1.18000 (round number) / 1.18500 (round number); Support: 1.16500 (round number) / 1.15471–1.15542 (round number, Fib 38.2%) / 1.13500–1.13546 (round number, 20-day low)
• DJ30 —— Resistance: 54,000.0–54,018.1 (round number, Fib 23.6%) / 54,795.0 (20-day high, 60-day high) / 54,957.4–55,000.0 (major round number, Upper Bollinger Band); Support: 53,000.0–53,037.2 (round number, 25-day SMA) / 52,500.0–52,540.5 (major round number, 50-day EMA) / 51,500.0–51,508.5 (round number, 20-day low)
• USOIL —— Resistance: 87.000 (round number) / 93.919–94.000 (round number, 20-day high) / 98.729 (60-day high); Support: 83.000–83.019 (round number, 10-day EMA) / 77.897 (previous week low) / 67.409 (60-day low, last month low)
• GBPUSD —— Resistance: 1.36500 (round number) / 1.37500 (major round number) / 1.38000 (round number); Support: 1.35493–1.35500 (round number, 5-day EMA) / 1.34736–1.34779 (21-day EMA, 20-day EMA) / 1.32182 (last month low)

So far this week, Gold is up 3.17%, US Crude Oil is up 3.15%, EUR is up 0.90%, and Dow Jones is down 0.36%.

Gold’s trading range this week is 4,324.60 – 4,527.24, with the current close located in the upper area of the range.

From a medium-term structural view, Gold is currently above its 20-week moving average (4,389.58, approximately five months) and remains above its 100-week moving average (approximately two years); the medium-term trend remains intact.

Economic Data Review & Outlook

Overnight Data

US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change recorded 4.405M, below expectations; Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY recorded 2.9%, below expectations; Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) MoM recorded 0.2%, below expectations; Eurozone Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI) YoY recorded 2.5%, matching expectations.

Today’s Focus

Today, the market first focuses on US Initial Jobless Claims.

Why it matters: A high-frequency thermometer of the labor market, impacting short-term USD pricing.

• US Initial Jobless Claims ★★★: Forecast 206K ｜ Prior 209K
• US Initial Jobless Claims (4-Week Average) ★: Forecast 201.648K ｜ Prior 199.000K
• Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index ★★★: Forecast 13.7 ｜ Prior 41.4

If US Initial Jobless Claims significantly deviate from expectations, it will directly impact market pricing of the Fed’s policy path; USD and Gold are expected to bear the brunt, while major non-USD currencies will also struggle to stay immune.

Disclaimer: The above content is provided for general market information and data review purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. CFDs and other leveraged products carry a high level of risk and may result in losses exceeding your initial investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please carefully assess your own financial circumstances before making any investment decisions.