Market Themes

US Crude Oil closed higher for the second consecutive day, breaking above the 94 mark intraday before stabilizing, becoming the only major instrument to close higher today; the remaining four instruments closed lower across the board, with Gold leading the decline. Japan’s quarterly GDP came in at 0.4%, higher than expected, but the data did not exert a clear traction on the foreign exchange market. The US Dollar Index weakened by 0.01% over the same period, a limited magnitude that is insufficient to confirm a single overarching narrative across the board—this column prefers to observe for another day rather than applying the same attribution mechanically to all asset classes.

US Crude Oil rose 1.69%; Gold fell 1.19%; the Dow Jones fell 0.62%; the S&P 500 fell 0.40%; USD/JPY fell 0.25%.

On September 8, Gold (XAUUSD) closed down 52.6 points, settling at 4,353.62 per ounce, a decline of 1.19%. In the Asian session at 04:00, it spiked to 4,442.95 before weakening, pulling back to 4,345.76 in the US session at 20:45, and stabilizing slightly into the close. The 4,400 mark was surrendered during the day, while the 4,350 level was lost intraday but reclaimed before the close. Full-day range was approximately 90% of its 14-day average daily volatility, remaining within recent 20-day normal bounds. The short-term MA5 (4,410.73) opened above price and closed above it, shifting from above to below intraday; the medium-term structure remains above the MA50 (4,253.99); the long-term MA100 (4,345.96) basically coincides with the closing price, leaving direction to be confirmed by its retention or loss. Key focus: Resistance at 4,447.88–4,450.00 (round number, 10-day SMA), roughly 2.2% from current prices, requiring a close above for a valid breakout; Support at 4,282.51 (10-day low, 20-day low), roughly 1.6% from current prices, with a loss on a closing basis needed for confirmation. Before reclaiming the MA5 (4,410.73), bounces should still be treated as pressure relief; if 4,282.51 is further lost, the next observation level sits at 4,100.00 (round number).

The energy market strengthened in tandem overnight, with US Crude Oil (USOIL) closing at 94.456, up 1.69%. In the European session at 08:30, it pushed up to 94.919 before turning weaker, pulling back to 92.020 in the US session at 17:00, before rallying back toward the high into the close, displaying a pattern of advancing first, pulling back, yet still closing near high levels. Intraday, it broke above both the 93 and 94 handles successively and held firm above them, closing near the upper boundary of its daily range. Short-to-medium-term moving averages MA5 (92.391) and MA20 (86.617) both provide support below, with the long-term MA100 (86.860) also situated underneath. Key focus: Resistance at 97.000 (round number), roughly 2.7% from current prices, requiring a close above for a valid breakout; Support at 92.000–92.020 (round number, day low), roughly 2.6% from current prices, with a loss on a closing basis needed for confirmation. Upside expansion requires standing firm above 97.000 first; if 92.000–92.020 is lost, the next observation level sits at 88.984–89.000 (round number, 10-day SMA).

Major US equity indices weakened in tandem, with the S&P 500 (SP500) dropping 30.8 points to close at 7,679.1, down 0.40%. In the Asian session at 04:45, it spiked to 7,726.9 before softening, pulling back to 7,673.8 in the US session at 19:45, closing near the lower edge of its intraday range. The 7,700 level was lost intraday. The short-term MA5 (7,697.5) opened above price and closed above it, shifting from above to below intraday. Key focus: Resistance at 7,726.9–7,729.4 (previous day high, day high), roughly 0.7% from current prices, requiring a close above for a valid breakout; Support at 7,616.7 (10-day low, 20-day low), roughly 0.8% from current prices, with a loss on a closing basis needed for confirmation. Before reclaiming the MA5 (7,697.5), bounces should still be treated as pressure relief; if 7,616.7 is further lost, the next observation level sits at 7,521.8 (last month low).

Other Asset Performance

The Dow Jones (DJ30) fell 329.6 points to close at 52,786.9, down 0.62%. The intraday high occurred at 00:00, after which it trended lower with volatility, touching an intraday low of 52,757.0 at 14:15, closing near the lower edge of the range. Key focus: Resistance at 53,190.9–53,221.7 (day high, Fib 61.8%), roughly 0.8% from current prices; Support at 52,464.1–52,500.0 (key round number, 75-day SMA), roughly 0.5% from current prices.

USD/JPY (USDJPY) closed at 153.962, down 0.25%. Intraday action moved inverse to stock indices, probing down to 152.874 at 02:15 before gradually recovering, reaching 154.414 at 11:00, closing in the upper-middle portion of its daily range. The 153 mark was lost and regained after testing, while the 154 mark was lost during the day. Short-, medium-, and long-term moving averages MA5 (155.805), MA20 (158.467), and MA200 (158.483) are all positioned above price in a bearish alignment. Key focus: Resistance at 154.876–155.000 (key round number, lower Bollinger Band), roughly 0.7% from current prices; Support at 152.874–153.000 (round number, day low), roughly 0.6% from current prices.

Key Levels

• XAUUSD —— Resistance: 4,447.88–4,450.00 (round number, 10-day SMA) / 4,510.77 (previous week high) / 4,696.81–4,700.00 (round number, 20-day high); Support: 4,282.51 (10-day low, 20-day low) / 4,100.00 (round number) / 3,942.97 (60-day low)
• USDJPY —— Resistance: 154.876–155.000 (key round number, lower Bollinger Band) / 156.914–157.000 (round number, 10-day EMA) / 158.000–158.101 (round number, 20-day EMA, 200-day EMA, 21-day EMA); Support: 152.874–153.000 (round number, day low) / 151.000 (round number) / 148.000 (round number)
• DJ30 —— Resistance: 53,190.9–53,221.7 (day high, Fib 61.8%) / 53,756.0–53,791.0 (Fib 23.6%, previous week high) / 54,795.0 (60-day high, last month high); Support: 52,464.1–52,500.0 (key round number, 75-day SMA) / 52,000.0 (round number) / 51,399.5 (60-day low)
• USOIL —— Resistance: 97.000 (round number) / 101.000 (round number) / 105.000 (key round number); Support: 92.000–92.020 (round number, day low) / 88.984–89.000 (round number, 10-day SMA) / 84.501–84.579 (75-day EMA, previous week low)
• SP500 —— Resistance: 7,726.9–7,729.4 (previous day high, day high) / 7,824.5 (20-day high, 60-day high) / 7,900.0 (round number); Support: 7,616.7 (10-day low, 20-day low) / 7,521.8 (last month low) / 7,500.0–7,501.5 (key round number, 100-day SMA)

Week-to-date, US Crude Oil is up 3.37%, the Dow Jones is down 0.89%, USD/JPY is down 1.85%, and Gold is down 1.90%. Gold’s trading range for the week is 4,341.15–4,442.95, with the daily close situated in the lower region of that range. From a medium-term structural view, Gold is currently sitting below its 20-week moving average (4,351.29, roughly five months) while remaining above its 100-week moving average (roughly two years), indicating that its medium-term structure is under some pressure.

Looking ahead today, market focus turns first to European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s speech.