Market Themes
Safe-haven sentiment and commodity bulls jointly dominated the tape yesterday: Gold (XAUUSD) rose 1.07%, the Dow Jones closed down 0.60%, the S&P 500 fell 0.39%, and US Crude Oil (USOIL) surged 2.53% against the trend. A single-day pattern of gold rising and equities falling is not yet sufficient to confirm that risk appetite has officially turned; it should be understood more as defensive position adjustments ahead of tonight’s European Central Bank interest rate decision. Notably, oil’s independent strength did not lead gold into a further upward charge, as the underlying logics of the two belong to different chains.
USOIL
US Crude Oil (USOIL) closed at 96.842, recording a gain of 2.53%. In the Asian session at 05:30, it probed down to near 91.767 before stabilizing and recovering, touching 97.092 in the US session at 20:00, with intraday range reaching 157% of its 14-day average daily volatility, ranking at the 95th percentile over the past 20 days. The 94 mark was tested and regained, after which it broke above the 96 mark and held firm above it. Prices sit above the MA5 (93.562) and MA20 (87.325), maintaining a short-term bullish structure; the MA100 (86.909) sits below.
Key focus: Resistance at 99.000 (round number) is 2.2% from current prices, requiring a valid breakout on a closing basis to confirm upside continuation; if the 93.000–93.088 zone (round number, Fib 23.6%) is lost, the short-term upward momentum rhythm will be disrupted.
XAUUSD
Precious metals markets strengthened in tandem overnight, with Gold (XAUUSD) rising 1.07% to close at 4,400.25. In the Asian session at 00:15, it tested down to 4,341.15 before stabilizing, reaching 4,434.04 in the US session at 13:30, closing in the upper-middle region of its daily range. The 4,350 level was tested and regained, after which it broke above the 4,400 mark and held firm above it. Prices remain below the MA5 (4,412.94) and MA20 (4,465.64), leaving the medium-term bearish alignment unchanged, but the MA100 (4,342.57) provides support underneath.
Key focus: Resistance at 4,510.77 (previous week high) is 2.5% from current prices, requiring a close above to open up upside space; if 4,282.51 (10-day low, 20-day low) is lost, this round of rebound will be declared over.
DJ30
Major US equity indices weakened on the same day, with the Dow Jones (DJ30) falling 319.0 points to close at 52,467.9, down 0.60%. In the Asian session at 04:45, it spiked to 52,865.9 before turning weak, pulling back to 52,340.0 in the US session at 15:15, closing near the lower edge of its daily range. The 52,500 level was lost intraday, with the 5-day low simultaneously refreshed. Key focus: Resistance at 52,959.1–53,007.0 (round number, Fib 61.8%, 55-day SMA) is 1.0% from current prices, requiring a close above to be valid; downside support at 52,000.0 (round number) is 0.9% from current prices, and if lost, room for further decline will open up.
Other Asset Performance
USDJPY
USD/JPY (USDJPY) closed at 153.527, down slightly by 0.28%, marking its third consecutive day of decline. In the Asian session at 06:15, it probed down to 152.929 before reclaiming the 153 mark, touching 153.99 in the US session at 22:00, closing in the upper-middle region of its daily range. Key focus: Resistance at 154.936–155.000 (key round number, 5-day EMA) is 1.0% from current prices; downside support at 152.000 (round number) is 1.0% from current prices, and if lost, the downward trend will be further confirmed.
Overview of Key Levels
| Instrument | Resistance R1 | Resistance R2 | Resistance R3 | Support S1 | Support S2 | Support S3 |
| XAUUSD | 4510.77 Previous week high | 4599.04–4600.00 Round number, Fib 23.6% | 4696.81–4700.00 Round number, 20-day high | 4282.51 10-day low, 20-day low | 4150.00 Round number | 3942.97 60-day low |
| USDJPY | 154.936–155.000 Key round number, 5-day EMA | 156.000 Round number | 157.996–158.000 Round number, 25-day EMA | 152.000 Round number | 151.000 Round number | 148.000 Round number |
| DJ30 | 52959.1–53007.0 Round number, Fib 61.8%, 55-day SMA | 53500.0 Round number | 54795.0 60-day high, last month high | 52000.0 Round number | 51399.5 60-day low | 50500.0 Round number |
| USOIL | 99.000 Round number | 103.000 Round number | 108.000 Round number | 93.000–93.088 Round number, Fib 23.6% | 92.000–92.020 Round number, previous day low | 84.501 Previous week low |
| SP500 | 7693.6–7700.3 Round number, day high, 5-day SMA | 7764.6 Previous week high | 7824.5 20-day high, 60-day high | 7613.5–7618.4 10-day low, 20-day low, 50-day SMA, 50-day EMA, Lower Bollinger Band | 7521.8 Last month low | 7400.0 Round number |
Looking ahead today, market focus turns first to the European Central Bank interest rate decision, at which point Euro volatility may indirectly sway the US Dollar Index, thereby influencing the short-term direction of Gold and USD/JPY.