Market Themes

On September 28, precious metals led the day’s losses during the Asian session, with concentrated selling pressure persisting throughout the day and weakness continuing into the US session. Gold and Silver simultaneously recorded their largest single-day declines in recent times, surrendering multiple round-number marks in succession; the price behavior closely resembled profit-taking and a pullback in risk premiums following previous high levels. US equities weakened on the same day, led lower by the Nasdaq, which closed below its daily MA5. WTI Crude Oil closed higher independently, out of sync with the drop in precious metals.

Gold closed at 4,114.34, down 3.98%; Silver closed at 60.634, down 5.72%; Nasdaq closed at 30,307.3, down 1.19%; WTI Crude Oil closed at 96.172, up 0.36%; EUR/USD closed at 1.137, down 0.19%.

Gold（XAUUSD）

Gold (XAUUSD) closed at 4,114.34 on the day, down 170.75 points or 3.98% from the previous close of 4,285.09, marking its largest single-day drop in recent times. The Asian session drove the bulk of the day’s losses as gold prices moved steadily lower from the day’s high of 4,280.66; weakness persisted through the European session and probed further downward in the US session, hitting an intraday low of 4,110.83 at 14:45 before recovering slightly off lows in late trading to close near the low end of the range. Intraday, it surrendered three round-number marks—4,250, 4,200, and 4,150—in succession without any effective recovery after losing them, indicating that selling pressure was not confined to a single session.

Structurally, gold opened at 4,279.69 and closed at 4,114.34 on the day, settling below the daily MA5 (4,263.98) and MA20 (4,334.22), as short-term moving averages turned into overhead resistance. Previously, gold prices repeatedly surged within a high-level range without breaking the prior week’s high; the concentrated release of accumulated profit-taking during the Asian session was the primary mechanism behind the day’s pullback, while the continued weakness in the US session echoed the synchronized pressure on interest-rate-sensitive assets. Looking ahead, market focus rests on whether price can reclaim the MA5 (4,263.98) confirmation line; before reclaiming it, a bounce-back is more likely a correction than a trend reversal. If the intraday low of 4,110.83 is further lost, weakness may extend toward the 60-day low at 3,959.60.

XAGUSD

Silver (XAGUSD) closed at 60.634 on the day, down 3.676 or 5.72% from the previous close of 64.31, a decline significantly larger than that of gold. In the Asian session, silver spiked to 64.084 before likewise turning weak, touching an intraday low of 60.603 in the US session at 20:30 and closing near the low end in late trading. Intraday, it surrendered four round-number marks—64, 63, 62, and 61—in succession, matching gold’s rhythm of decline but with a steeper slope.

Silver’s larger decline relative to gold stems from its inherently higher volatility, which amplifies downside magnitude during concentrated profit-taking; its industrial properties make it more sensitive to changes in growth and risk appetite, a channel that may further magnify losses in the current environment, though specific contributions still require more evidence. Both gold and silver dropped, but silver exhibited greater elasticity; if gold loses 4,110.83 and silver loses 60.603, weakness may continue in tandem. Looking ahead, market focus rests on whether price can return above the MA5 (64.062); if the intraday low of 60.603 continues to be lost, the next observation level lies at the 59.000 round-number mark.

NAS100

The Nasdaq (NAS100) closed at 30,307.3 on the day, down 364.6 points or 1.19% from the previous close of 30,671.9. In the Asian session at 00:15, it spiked to 30,663.6 before softening, touching an intraday low of 30,122.3 in the US session at 14:45, and recovering slightly in late trading. Intraday, it surrendered the 30,500 round-number mark and closed below the daily MA5 (30,545.8). Looking ahead, market focus rests on the holding of the 30,000 key round-number mark; failing to reclaim the MA5 (30,545.8) keeps any rally in corrective territory, and if interest rate expectations are revised upward further, high-valuation growth stocks will face greater pressure.

美原油（WTI / USOIL）

US Crude Oil (WTI / Symbol: USOIL) closed at 96.172 on the day, up 0.347 or 0.36% from the previous close of 95.825, marking its second consecutive session of gains. In the European session at 11:00, it spiked to 99.402 before pulling back, touching an intraday low of 94.156 in the US session at 17:00, then recovering off lows in late trading to reclaim both the 95 and 96 round-number marks and settle above 96. Crude oil closed higher independently on the day, out of sync with the drop in precious metals.

Looking ahead, market focus rests on whether price can hold firm above 96 to test the 97 round-number mark; if 95 is lost, pullback risks will rise.

EURUSD

EUR/USD (EURUSD) closed at 1.137 on the day, down 0.00215 or 0.19% from the previous close of 1.13915. In the Asian session at 03:15, it spiked to 1.13907 before pulling back, touching an intraday low of 1.13526 in the US session at 14:45, and recovering slightly off lows in late trading. Overall, it maintained its recent narrow range, remaining within the intraday fluctuation bounds of 1.13526 to 1.13907. Looking ahead, market focus rests on support at the recent low of 1.13526 and resistance at the intraday high of 1.13907.

Outlook Focus

For Gold, focus on whether price can reclaim the MA5 (4,263.98) confirmation line; losing 4,110.83 may extend weakness toward the 60-day low at 3,959.60. For Silver, focus on whether price can return above the MA5 (64.062); losing 60.603 sets the next observation level at the 59.000 round-number mark. For the Nasdaq, focus on the holding of the 30,000 key round-number mark; failing to reclaim the MA5 (30,545.8) leaves bounces as corrective. For WTI Crude Oil, focus on whether price can hold firm above 96 to test the 97 round-number mark; losing 95 increases pullback risks. For the Euro, focus on support at the recent low of 1.13526 and resistance at the intraday high of 1.13907.

Overview of Key Levels

Instrument	Direction	Near R1 / S1	Medium R2 / S2	Far R3 / S3
XAUUSD	Resistance	4200.00 Round number	4296.86–4300.00 Round number, 100-day SMA, 250-day EMA	4383.34 Previous week high
XAUUSD	Support	4019.08 Last month low	3959.60 60-day low	3650.00 Round number
XAGUSD	Resistance	62.000 Round number	67.540 10-day high, previous week high	71.154 60-day high, last month high
XAGUSD	Support	59.000 Round number	54.766 60-day low	48.000 Round number
EURUSD	Resistance	1.13986–1.14000 Round number, 5-day EMA	1.14897–1.14952 20-day EMA, 21-day EMA, previous week high	1.17077–1.17110 60-day high, Upper Bollinger Band
EURUSD	Support	1.13377 Lower Bollinger Band	1.12500 Key round number	1.10500 Round number
NAS100	Resistance	30844.5–30871.1 10-day high, 20-day high, Upper Bollinger Band	31500.0 Round number	32000.0 Round number
NAS100	Support	30000.0 Key round number	29641.4–29648.3 25-day SMA, previous week low	28206.3 Last month low
USOIL	Resistance	101.000–101.038 Round number, previous week high	106.752 10-day high, 20-day high	112.000 Round number
USOIL	Support	92.425 10-day low, previous week low	86.518 20-day low	74.423 Last month low

Resistance and support are each arranged from nearest to farthest: R1/S1 are the nearest, R3/S3 are the farthest.