Market Themes

On October 6, long-end US Treasury yields pulled back from multi-decade highs set on Monday, accompanied by a weakening US Dollar, forming a common backdrop across most asset classes on the day. However, sensitivities varied among assets: gold proved most directly responsive to real interest rates and the US Dollar; the S&P 500 was driven further by AI mega-caps continuing their push amid bond market weakness; the Euro gained lift as the French budget progressed and OATs stabilized; while the British Pound primarily tracked the US Dollar side. Crude oil’s advance stemmed from an independent mechanism—attacks in the direction of Hormuz elevated Middle East transport risks, driving WTI to bounce off European session lows.

Daily closes: Gold 4,163.94; S&P 500 closed up for a fourth consecutive session to a record high of 7,832.0; WTI closed at 91.446; Euro closed at 1.12589; British Pound closed at 1.32744.

Spot Gold (XAUUSD)

Spot Gold (XAUUSD) closed at 4,163.94 on October 6, up 22.60 points or 0.55% from the previous close of 4,141.34, marking a second consecutive session of gains. In the Asian session at 02:30, it probed down to 4,103.86 before stabilizing, testing up to 4,184.38 at 19:00 in the US session, probing lower before recovering across the entire day to close near the upper portion of the daily range, breaking above and closing over the 4,150 round-number mark intraday.

Drivers came from both interest rates and the US Dollar: long-end yields pulling back from high levels and a weaker US Dollar lowered the opportunity cost of holding gold, fitting intraday price action more closely than safe-haven narratives. However, the close remained below the daily MA20 (4,263.17), leaving the medium-term structure unchanged, with the bounce remaining closer to a corrective move than a trend reversal. Above, the confirmation line lies at the MA20, with the nature of the bounce unchanged prior to reclaiming it; below, 4,110.83 serves as the previous week low and last month low, subject to confirmation on a closing basis.

Spot Gold (XAUUSD) · 4-Hour

US Crude Oil (WTI / Symbol: USOIL)

US Crude Oil (WTI / Symbol: USOIL) closed at 91.446 on October 6, up 0.475 points or 0.52% from the previous close of 90.971. In the European session at 12:15, it probed down to 88.387, testing up to 91.562 at 20:30 in the US session, probing lower before recovering. Intraday, the 90 mark was lost and regained, breaking above and closing over the 91 round-number mark.

Intraday clues for the bounce stemmed from attack incidents in the direction of Hormuz: rising Middle East transport risks offset bearish pressure from improving Middle East export flows. Inventory reports showed crude drawdowns exceeding expectations, providing support for oil prices, though the headline was published after the US session close, leaving its impact on intraday price action subject to further confirmation. The close remained below the daily MA5 (92.785), leaving the bounce pending confirmation and better viewed as a corrective move prior to reclaiming the MA5. Below, 86.518 serves as last month low, subject to confirmation on a closing basis.

WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) · 4-Hour

S&P 500 Index (SP500)

The S&P 500 (SP500) closed at 7,832.0 on October 6, up 50.3 points or 0.65% from the previous close of 7,781.7, marking its fourth consecutive session of gains and setting a new record high. In the Asian session at 00:00, it stabilized after probing to 7,781.5, testing up to 7,849.8 at 15:15 in the US session, breaking above and closing over the 7,800 round-number mark intraday.

This record was achieved against the backdrop of elevated US Treasury yields and bond market weakness, as AI mega-caps continued to absorb capital, increasing the index’s reliance on a handful of tech stocks for its upward move. Short- and medium-term moving averages remain above the MA5 (7,737.4) and MA20 (7,690.1), maintaining a bullish structure; above, the 7,900 round-number mark serves as the next observation point, with 7,781.5 below acting as the day low.

S&P 500 (SP500) · 4-Hour

EURUSD

The Euro against the US Dollar (EURUSD) closed at 1.12589 on October 6, up 0.0037 or 0.33% from the previous close of 1.12219, erasing all of Monday’s losses. In the Asian session at 06:15, it stabilized after probing down to 1.12024, recovering to 1.12762 at 12:00 in the European session.

The boost came from French bonds stabilizing and French-German spreads narrowing as the French budget progressed, alongside broad-based US Dollar weakness, rather than improvements in Eurozone economic data itself. The close remained below the daily MA20 (1.14217), leaving the medium-term weak structure unchanged, with the bounce remaining closer to a corrective move prior to standing above the MA20.

Euro (EURUSD) · 4-Hour

GBPUSD

The British Pound against the US Dollar (GBPUSD) closed at 1.32744 on October 6, up 0.0048 or 0.41% from the previous close of 1.32196. In the Asian session at 06:15, it probed down to 1.32005, testing up to 1.32849 at 15:45 in the US US session. The advance primarily stemmed from US Dollar weakness and pulling-back yields rather than UK domestic data; the close was above the daily MA5 (1.32382), but remained below the MA20 (1.33387).

British Pound (GBPUSD) · Daily

Outlook Focus

Going forward, monitor whether the October 7 FOMC meeting minutes confirm the pullback trend in long-end yields: if yields continue to move lower, the recovery in Gold and the S&P 500 can extend. For WTI, a close above the daily MA5 (92.785) is required to confirm a bounce; otherwise, it remains a corrective move. The Euro requires standing above the daily MA20 (1.14217) to alter its medium-term weak structure.

Overview of Key Levels

Instrument	Direction	Near R1 / S1	Medium R2 / S2	Far R3 / S3
XAUUSD	Resistance	4248.20–4251.87 Key round number, 20-day EMA, 21-day EMA	4280.66 Previous week high	4510.77 Last month high
XAUUSD	Support	4110.83 Previous week low, last month low	3959.60 60-day low	3800.00 Round number
GBPUSD	Resistance	1.33500 Round number	1.33922–1.34003 Round number, 50-day EMA, 250-day EMA	1.35673–1.35690 20-day high, Upper Bollinger Band
GBPUSD	Support	1.32000–1.32016 Round number, day low, last month low	1.31801–1.31893 Previous day low, 10-day low	1.29000 Round number
SP500	Resistance	7900.0 Round number	8000.0 Key round number	8100.0 Round number
SP500	Support	7619.0–7622.5 10-day low, 75-day SMA	7511.9 20-day low, last month low	—
USOIL	Resistance	94.000 Round number	99.402 Previous week high	106.752 20-day high, 60-day high
USOIL	Support	86.518 Last month low	81.944–82.000 Round number, 250-day EMA	74.423 60-day low
EURUSD	Resistance	1.13000 Round number	1.13897–1.13950 20-day EMA, 21-day EMA	1.14500–1.14502 Round number, 10-day high
EURUSD	Support	1.12146 Previous week low	1.11606 Previous day low, 10-day low	1.09500 Round number

Resistance and support are each arranged from nearest to farthest: R1/S1 are the nearest, R3/S3 are the farthest.