Market Themes

A sharp drop in US Crude Oil was the most prominent change of the day, while US equities and Gold closed higher and USD/JPY moved lower, forming a directional divergence. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) MoM came in at 0.4%, higher than expected; following this data release, various instruments failed to forge a unified direction: 3 out of 5 instruments closed higher, with only USD/JPY and US Crude Oil moving lower against the grain, while the US Dollar Index strengthened by 0.01% over the same period, a magnitude insufficient to confirm a single overarching narrative across the board.

In the absence of a cross-asset common driver, each instrument is better suited for independent interpretation.

US Crude Oil fell 3.68%; Dow Jones rose 0.92%; Nasdaq rose 0.85%; Gold rose 0.73%; USD/JPY fell 0.60%.

USOIL (US Crude Oil)

On September 11, US Crude Oil (USOIL) closed lower, settling at 100.175, down sharply by 3.68%. In the Asian session at 23:45, it spiked to 104.585 before softening, pulling back to 98.624 in the US session at 13:30, with the intraday high untested thereafter. The 100 mark was lost and regained intraday, while the 101 mark was surrendered during the day. Intraday range reached 144% of its 14-day average daily volatility, ranking at the 95th percentile over the past 20 days.

Short- and medium-term prices both sit above the MA5 (97.672) and MA20 (89.351); the long-term moving average MA100 (87.055) provides support underneath. Key resistance sits at 104.585 (day high, 10-day high), 4.4% from current prices, requiring a close above to be valid; downside support lies at 98.000 (round number), 2.2% from current prices, with a loss on a closing basis taking precedent. Key focus: 104.585 Resistance | 98.000 Support.

NAS100 (Nasdaq)

Major US equity indices strengthened in tandem overnight, with the Nasdaq (NAS100) rising 247.5 points to close at 29,399.1, up slightly by 0.85%. In the Asian session at 04:00, it tested down to near 29,043.3 before stabilizing, touching 29,504.8 in the US session at 13:00, with the early-session low untested thereafter. An attempt was made to test the 29,500 mark intraday but failed to hold above. Short-term closed above MA10 (29,382.6) (opening below and closing above it intraday); medium-term closed below MA20 (29,400.8); long-term moving average MA100 (29,286.9) provides support underneath.

Key resistance sits at 29,674.1 (previous week high), 0.9% from current prices, requiring a close above to be valid; downside support lies at 28,975.8–29,000.0 (round number, lower Bollinger Band), 1.4% from current prices, with a loss on a closing basis taking precedent. The confirmation line lies at MA20 (29,400.8); before reclaiming it, a bounce-back is more like a correction than a trend reversal. If 28,975.8–29,000.0 (round number, lower Bollinger Band) is lost, weakness may extend toward the 28,889.8–28,903.6 zone (20-day low, 10-day low).

Key focus: 29,674.1 Resistance | 28,975.8–29,000.0 Support.

USDJPY (USD/JPY)

The foreign exchange market weakened on the same day, with USD/JPY (USDJPY) closing at 153.488, down slightly by 0.60%. In the Asian session at 23:30, it spiked to 154.606 before softening, pulling back to 153.231 in the US session at 13:00. The 154 mark was surrendered during the day. Key resistance sits at 155.000 (key round number), 1.0% from current prices, requiring a close above to be valid; downside support lies at 152.000 (round number), 1.0% from current prices, with a loss on a closing basis taking precedent.

The confirmation line lies at MA5 (153.947); before reclaiming it, a bounce-back is more like a correction than a trend reversal. If 152.000 (round number) is lost, weakness may extend toward the 151.000 (round number) level. Key focus: 155.000 Resistance | 152.000 Support.

Other Asset Performance

DJ30 (Dow Jones)

The Dow Jones (DJ30) rose 479.1 points to close at 52,592.0, up slightly by 0.92%. Key resistance sits at 52,969.5–53,011.3 (round number, 55-day SMA, 50-day SMA), 0.8% from current prices; downside support lies at 51,997.0–52,000.0 (round number, previous day low), 1.1% from current prices. Key focus: 52,969.5–53,011.3 Resistance | 51,997.0–52,000.0 Support.

XAUUSD (Gold)

Gold (XAUUSD) rose 31.5 points to close at 4,348.49 per ounce, up slightly by 0.73%. Key resistance sits at 4,445.72–4,450.00 (round number, 25-day SMA), 2.3% from current prices; downside support lies at 4,282.51 (10-day low, 20-day low), 1.5% from current prices. Key focus: 4,445.72–4,450.00 Resistance | 4,282.51 Support.

Overview of Key Levels

Instrument	Resistance R1	Resistance R2	Resistance R3	Support S1	Support S2	Support S3
XAUUSD	4445.72–4450.00 Round number, 25-day SMA	4510.77 10-day high, previous week high	4696.81–4700.00 Round number, 20-day high	4282.51 10-day low, 20-day low	4100.00 Round number	3942.97 60-day low
USDJPY	155.000 Key round number	156.000–156.034 Round number, 10-day SMA	157.919–158.000 Round number, 25-day SMA, 200-day EMA	152.000 Round number	151.000 Round number	147.000 Round number
NAS100	29674.1 Previous week high	30265.7 20-day high, last month high	30722.3 60-day high	28975.8–29000.0 Round number, lower Bollinger Band	28889.8–28903.6 20-day low, 10-day low	28206.3 Last month low
USOIL	104.585 Day high, 10-day high	108.000 Round number	113.000 Round number	98.000 Round number	89.000–89.020 Round number, 21-day SMA	84.501 10-day low, previous week low
DJ30	52969.5–53011.3 Round number, 55-day SMA, 50-day SMA	53791.0–53834.0 10-day high, 20-day high	54795.0 60-day high, last month high	51997.0–52000.0 Round number, previous day low	51399.5 60-day low	50500.0 Round number

Resistance and support are each arranged from nearest to farthest: R1/S1 are the nearest, R3/S3 are the farthest.

Reviewing last week’s market performance, US Crude Oil rose 12.03%, Nasdaq fell 1.64%, USD/JPY fell 1.81%, and Gold fell 2.22%.

Gold’s trading range for the week was 4,291.39 – 4,442.95, with price action’s daily close situated near the midpoint of the range.

From a medium-term structural view, Gold currently sits above its 20-week moving average (4,333.30, approximately five months) and remains above its 100-week moving average (approximately two years), with the medium-term trend not yet damaged.

Looking ahead today, market focus turns first to European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s speech.