Market Themes

On September 18, dollar-denominated assets broadly strengthened. USDJPY broke above 156 and briefly tested 158, while the Nasdaq reclaimed 29,500 and approached its previous high, with the interest-rate environment supporting both the U.S. dollar and risk assets. Gold rebounded after dipping during the Asian session and closed higher above 4,350, but remained below the 20-day MA, leaving the rebound unconfirmed. WTI crude oil fell for a third consecutive session, briefly losing and reclaiming 100 while failing to hold 101, keeping the short-term move in a pullback phase.

USDJPY rose 0.58% to 156.858, the Nasdaq gained 0.83% to 29,694.60, spot gold rose 0.84% to 4,378.30, WTI crude oil fell 1.20% to 100.012, and GBPUSD gained 0.26% to 1.33931.

USDJPY

USDJPY closed at 156.858, up 0.58% from the previous close, marking its first daily gain in recent sessions. After dipping to 155.864 during the Asian session, the pair stabilized and climbed to 158.047 during the European session. It broke and held above 156, while attempts to move above 157 and 158 failed. The daily range reached 142% of its 14-day average daily range, ranking at the 90th percentile over the past 20 days, indicating significantly higher volatility.

If the dollar-rate environment remains firm, the 156 area will be a key short-term level to watch. The intraday low of 155.864 fell below this level, suggesting that firm support was not established during the session. Attention will turn to whether the close can hold above 156. The 158 area remains a key resistance zone, while the pair still closed below the daily 20-day MA at 156.79, meaning the medium-term moving average has yet to be reclaimed. A break below 155.218–155.328, the previous day’s low and last month’s low, would bring 152.874–153.000, the round-number level and 10-day low, into focus.

NAS100

The Nasdaq closed at 29,694.60, up 0.83% from the previous close, marking its second consecutive daily gain. After dipping to 29,381.6 at 01:15 during the Asian session, the index stabilized and climbed to 29,728.1 at 20:00 during the U.S. session. It broke and held above the 29,500 level, approaching the 10-day high of 29,755.8. With the dollar firm and interest rates not exerting significant pressure, the index maintained an upward bias.

Upside potential remains limited until the previous high of 29,755.8 is confirmed by a daily close. The 29,500 level serves as short-term support.

Spot Gold (XAUUSD)

Spot gold closed at 4,378.30, up 0.84% from the previous close, marking its second consecutive daily gain. After dipping to 4,334.29 at 03:15 during the Asian session, gold stabilized and climbed to 4,399.57 at 07:45 during the European session. It broke and held above the 4,350 level. The daily range was equivalent to 62% of the 14-day average daily range, ranking at the 10th percentile over the past 20 days.

Gold recovered above 4,350, but the close remained below the daily 20-day MA at 4,421.41, leaving the rebound unconfirmed. A close above 4,442.95, the 10-day high and previous week’s high, is required before treating the move as a confirmed breakout. A close below 4,291.39, the previous week’s low, would signal weakness, with 4,235.06, the 10-day and 20-day low, as the next level to watch.

WTI Crude Oil (USOIL)

WTI crude oil closed at 100.012, down 1.20% from the previous close, marking its third consecutive daily decline. After dipping to 99.387 at 07:30 during the European session, oil stabilized and climbed to 102.572 at 14:15 during the U.S. session. It briefly lost and reclaimed the 100 level, failed to hold 101, and did not sustain gains above 102. After three consecutive daily declines, the 100 level has been regained but 101 remains lost, keeping the short-term move in a pullback phase.

Below 104.585, the previous week’s high, upside momentum should be approached cautiously. A break below 97.000, the round-number level, would bring 91.000–91.089, the round-number level and 10-day low, into focus.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD closed at 1.33931, up 0.26% from the previous close. After dipping to 1.33349 at 12:15 during the European session, the pair stabilized and climbed to 1.33976 at 20:15 during the U.S. session. It closed near the intraday high but remained below the MA5, leaving the rebound unconfirmed as a reversal. The daily MA5 at 1.34215, MA10 at 1.34770, and MA20 at 1.35175 remain above price. A move back above the MA5 is needed before treating the move as a trend reversal.

Market Outlook

For USDJPY, watch support around 156 and resistance at 158; a daily close above the 20-day MA at 156.79 would indicate a recovery of the medium-term moving average. For the Nasdaq, upside potential remains limited until the previous high of 29,755.8 is confirmed by a daily close, with 29,500 as short-term support. For gold, 4,442.95 must be reclaimed on a daily closing basis to confirm a valid breakout, while a close below 4,291.39 would signal weakness. For WTI crude oil, 104.585 remains the key resistance level, while a break below 97.000 would bring 91.000–91.089 into focus. For GBPUSD, a move back above the MA5 at 1.34215 is needed before treating the move as a trend reversal.

Key Levels

Instrument	Direction	Near R1 / S1	Mid R2 / S2	Far R3 / S3
XAUUSD	Resistance	4442.95 10-day high, previous week’s high	4600.00 Round-number level	4696.81–4700.00 Round-number level, 20-day high
XAUUSD	Support	4288.34–4291.39 50-day SMA, previous week’s low	4235.06 10-day low, 20-day low	3942.97 60-day low
GBPUSD	Resistance	1.34500–1.34575 Round-number level, Fibonacci 61.8%, 200-day SMA	1.34952–1.35000 Major round-number level, Fibonacci 50.0%	1.36750 60-day high, previous month’s high
GBPUSD	Support	1.33349–1.33356 Previous day’s low, intraday low	1.32500 Major round-number level	1.31900 60-day low
NAS100	Resistance	30000.0 Major round-number level	30378.0 60-day high	31000.0 Round-number level
NAS100	Support	29374.3–29392.5 Intraday low, Fibonacci 38.2%, 25-day SMA, 5-day EMA	29043.3 Previous week’s low	28206.3 Previous month’s low
USOIL	Resistance	104.585 Previous week’s high	106.752 10-day high, 20-day high	114.000 Round-number level
USOIL	Support	94.910–95.000 Major round-number level, 21-day EMA	91.000–91.089 Round-number level, 10-day low	80.127 20-day low
USDJPY	Resistance	158.000–158.114 Round-number level, intraday high, 50-day EMA	160.193 Previous month’s high	163.978–164.000 Round-number level, 60-day high
USDJPY	Support	155.218–155.328 Previous day’s low, previous month’s low	152.874–153.000 Round-number level, 10-day low	152.000–152.085 Round-number level, lower Bollinger Band

Resistance and support levels are arranged from nearest to farthest: R1/S1 are the nearest levels, while R3/S3 are the farthest.