Market Themes

On August 28, up until the US market close, the market narrative was completely opposite to the previous trading day—August 27 saw commodities bulls exerting force, whereas overnight switched to dollar strengthening suppressing the entire field: the US Dollar Index rose 0.56%, Gold fell 3.18%, the Euro fell 0.61%, and the British Pound fell 0.44%, with non-US currencies and broad commodities retreating almost across the board. On the first day of this narrative shift, we tend to observe for another day before confirming its continuity, rather than rushing to set a direction. The French Consumer Price Index (CPI) MoM released intraday recorded 0.7%, higher than expected, though Eurozone inflation stickiness will take time to ferment into support for the Euro.

Gold fell 3.18%; Euro fell 0.61%; British Pound fell 0.44%; Nasdaq fell 0.35%; US Crude Oil fell 0.10%.

On August 28, Gold (XAUUSD) closed down, dropping 146.5 pips to close at 4,454.45 per ounce, plunging 3.18%. In the US session at 14:00, it surged to 4,631.52 before turning weak, and in the US session at 18:30, it pulled back to 4,445.44, with the intraday high untested thereafter. The 4,450 mark was lost and then regained intraday, while the 4,500 mark was lost during the day. The full-day amplitude was equivalent to 192% of its 14-day average daily volatility, ranking at the 90th percentile of the past 20 days. Short term, it closed below MA10 (4,527.88) (opening above it intraday and closing below); medium term, it closed above MA20 (4,389.90); the long-term moving average MA100 (4,375.92) provides support below. Key resistance sits at 4,550.00 (round number); downside support lies at 4,348.60–4,350.00 (round number, 200-day EMA). Selling pressure came direct and prices gave up many positions; until taking them back, any rebound easily turns into relief.

The foreign exchange market weakened in tandem overnight, with the Euro (EURUSD) closing at 1.15815, down slightly by 0.61%. In the US session at 14:00, it surged to 1.16588 before turning weak, and in the US session at 17:45, it pulled back to 1.15772, with the intraday high untested thereafter. The 1.16000 mark was lost during the day. Key resistance sits at 1.16500–1.16540 (round number, 5-day EMA); downside support lies at 1.15448–1.15500 (round number, 55-day EMA). Our assessment is that weakness remains unchanged — short-term moving averages act as the watershed, and without reclaiming them, there is no talk of a reversal.

The three major US stock indices weakened on the same day, with Nasdaq (NAS100) falling 105.0 points, closing at 29,474.5, down slightly by 0.35%. Key resistance sits at 29,768.3–29,779.7 (day high, Fib 23.6%); downside support lies at 29,136.8–29,157.1 (25-day SMA, 55-day EMA). Short term has weakened, but the medium-term line has not been lost yet — now it depends on whether buying support holds below.

US Crude Oil (USOIL) closed at 83.886, down slightly by 0.10%. Immediate resistance sits at 84.205 (day high); key resistance at 86.000 (round number); downside support at 81.511 (previous week low).

British Pound (GBPUSD) closed at 1.35320, down slightly by 0.44%. Immediate resistance sits at 1.35979 (day high); key resistance at 1.35874–1.35948 (10-day SMA, 10-day EMA); downside support at 1.34980–1.35000 (major round number, 25-day SMA).

Key Levels

• XAUUSD —— Resistance: 4,550.00 (round number) / 4,696.81–4,700.00 (round number, 10-day high) / 4,750.00 (major round number); Support: 4,348.60–4,350.00 (round number, 200-day EMA) / 4,324.60–4,326.77 (10-day low, 25-day SMA) / 4,019.04–4,019.08 (20-day low, lower Bollinger Band)
• EURUSD —— Resistance: 1.16500–1.16540 (round number, 5-day EMA) / 1.17097–1.17110 (10-day high, 20-day high); Support: 1.15448–1.15500 (round number, 55-day EMA) / 1.14998–1.15000 (major round number, 20-day low) / 1.13500–1.13528 (round number, last month low)
• NAS100 —— Resistance: 29,768.3–29,779.7 (day high, Fib 23.6%) / 30,312.4–30,332.7 (upper Bollinger Band, last month high) / 30,722.3 (60-day high); Support: 29,136.8–29,157.1 (25-day SMA, 55-day EMA) / 28,500.0 (round number) / 28,206.3 (20-day low)
• USOIL —— Resistance: 86.000 (round number) / 88.321 (10-day high, 20-day high) / 93.919–94.000 (round number, last month high); Support: 81.511 (previous week low) / 79.939–80.000 (major round number, 200-day EMA) / 74.423 (20-day low)
• GBPUSD —— Resistance: 1.35874–1.35948 (10-day SMA, 10-day EMA) / 1.35979–1.36054 (round number, previous day high) / 1.36726–1.36750 (10-day high, 20-day high); Support: 1.34980–1.35000 (major round number, 25-day SMA) / 1.34169–1.34214 (20-day low, 200-day EMA) / 1.31394 (60-day low)

So far this week, Nasdaq is up 0.53%, Euro is down 0.82%, Gold is down 3.26%, and US Crude Oil is down 3.91%. Gold’s trading range this week is 4,445.44–4,696.81, with the current close located in the lower area of the range. From a medium-term structural view, Gold is currently above its 20-week moving average (4,386.19, approximately five months) and remains above its 100-week moving average (approximately two years); the medium-term trend remains intact.

Disclaimer: The above content represents general market information and data review only and does not constitute any investment advice, recommendation, or offer to buy or sell. CFDs and other leveraged products carry high risk and may lead to losses exceeding your initial investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results; please evaluate carefully according to your own circumstances.