Market Themes
On Monday (August 31), during the Asian session, overall market trading sentiment was cautious: Gold, the Hang Seng Index, and USD/JPY weakened in tandem, with only the Nikkei 225 rising against the trend. On the news front, US inflation data provided support for the US dollar, remaining the focus of attention for the gold market.
We believe that Gold (XAU/USD), currently trading at 4,425.01, is down slightly by 0.66% intraday. The price broke below 4,448.30 (9-hour SMA, 9-hour EMA), a short-term bull-bear dividing line, weakening the technical structure and giving bears the upper hand for now. The primary support zone below points toward 4,400.00 (round number, day low), and whether this level can hold will determine the scope for further intraday downside. We tend to view that if gold prices can stabilize around 4,400.00, short-term price action may maintain range-bound consolidation; once this mark is lost, deeper pullback pressure will be faced below.
Meanwhile, the Nikkei 225 (J225), currently trading at 66,161.5, is up slightly by 0.52% intraday. The index is trading near the upper boundary of its intraday range, with bulls in control. Upward momentum was confirmed after breaking above 66,091.8 (pivot PP, 55-hour EMA), with the next hurdle above looking to 66,175.5 (day high, 55-hour SMA); a successful stance above it is expected to open up new upside space. We anticipate that the Nikkei will remain relatively strong during the Asian session, though attention should be paid to short-term volatility brought by high-level profit-taking.
In contrast, the Hang Seng Index (HK50), currently trading at 25,413.5, is down slightly by 0.36% intraday. As the price pulled back below 25,446.5 (day high, 9-hour EMA), the short-term structure weakened accordingly, with support below focusing on 25,400.0 (round number). It is worth noting that the decline in the Hang Seng Index is relatively limited, indicating that buying support still exists at lower levels. We judge that if the Hang Seng Index can hold the 25,400.0 mark, it may maintain range-bound oscillation intraday; conversely, if it breaks below this support, it may drop further to seek lower support.
USD/JPY, currently trading at 159.784, is down slightly by 0.19% intraday. The exchange rate came under short-term pressure after breaking below 159.855 (pivot PP, 20-hour EMA), with the next support looking to 159.517 (pivot S1, lower Bollinger Band). Although the US dollar as a whole is supported by inflation data, yen crosses performance remains relatively firm, which may limit downside room for the exchange rate. We tend to believe that USD/JPY will receive certain support near 159.517; if this level is lost, further downside space may open up.
Today’s Focus
Today’s economic calendar is relatively quiet, and the market is expected to be dominated by range-bound oscillations. For Gold, focus on the range boundaries between 4,400.00 (round number, day low) and 4,448.30 (9-hour SMA, 9-hour EMA). If gold prices hold firm at the lower boundary, the consolidation pattern will be maintained; once lost, it may trigger a further decline.
This article is an intraday snapshot. The prices mentioned are the latest prices at the time of publication, not closing prices; daily-level figures are noted as « previous day. »
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