Market Theme
Gold led the decline among major assets. U.S. Housing Starts came in at -12.4% MoM. Although the previous reading was revised up to 19.7%, the latest figure was well below expectations, setting the tone for weaker risk sentiment overnight.
Gold fell 1.84%, the Nasdaq declined 1.71%, the S&P 500 lost 0.68%, U.S. crude oil rose 0.39%, while GBP/USD slipped 0.08%.
On August 18, gold (XAUUSD) closed lower, falling 1.84% to 4,334.33. During the early Asian session, it briefly rallied to 4,436.17 before buying momentum faded. Prices then retreated to 4,329.13 late in the New York session, forming a classic rally-and-reversal pattern. The 4,350 level was broken during the day, while the intraday range reached approximately 112% of the 14-day Average Daily Range (ADR), indicating a notable increase in volatility.
In the short term, gold closed below the 10-day MA (4,346.68), opening above it and finishing below it. In the medium term, it remained above the 20-day MA (4,207.42), while the 100-day MA (4,383.82) continues to act as overhead resistance. Immediate resistance is at 4,436.17 (session high), with key resistance at 4,342.63–4,346.68 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement, 10-day SMA). Initial support is seen at 4,329.13–4,330.81 (session low, 200-day EMA).
From a technical perspective, short-term selling pressure is clearly evident, and any rebound is likely to remain capped until lost ground is recovered. Since August 17, we had maintained a bullish view on gold. Today’s evidence, however, has shifted to the opposite side—we now lean bearish.
The Nasdaq (NAS100) also weakened overnight, falling 1.71% to close at 29,487.8, down 512.2 points. The index climbed to 30,050.0 at 00:45 during the Asian session before reversing lower, then declined to 29,445.8 at 15:00 during the U.S. session, losing the 29,500 level intraday. Immediate resistance is at 30,050.0 (session high), with key resistance at 29,500.0–29,514.6 (psychological level, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement). Support is located at 29,436.9–29,445.8 (session low, 75-day SMA). Technically, short-term selling pressure remains evident, and rallies are likely to face resistance until losses are recovered.
The S&P 500 (SP500) also weakened on the day, falling 0.68% to close at 7,700.9, down 52.5 points. It reached 7,758.6 at 00:15 during the Asian session before turning lower, then retreated to 7,698.6 at 19:45 during the U.S. session. The 7,700 level was briefly broken before being reclaimed. Immediate resistance is at 7,758.6 (session high), with key resistance at 7,721.3 (10-day EMA). Support is located at 7,698.6–7,700.4 (psychological level, session low). From a technical perspective, we continue to view the current pullback as a consolidation within the medium-term uptrend. As long as the medium-term moving averages remain intact, buying on dips remains our preferred strategy.
U.S. crude oil (USOIL) closed at 85.138, gaining 0.39%. Key resistance is at 85.738 (session high, 10-day high), while support is located at 82.814–82.848 (20-day SMA, 75-day EMA).
GBP/USD closed at 1.35318, slipping 0.08%. Immediate resistance is at 1.35534 (session high), with key resistance at 1.35500–1.35534 (psychological level, session high). Support is found at 1.35172–1.35213 (session low, 5-day SMA).
Key Levels
XAUUSD — Resistance: 4,342.63–4,346.68 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement, 10-day SMA) / 4,449.72–4,453.41 (psychological level, 10-day high); Support: 4,329.13–4,330.81 (session low, 200-day EMA) / 4,276.37–4,278.52 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 75-day SMA)
GBPUSD — Resistance: 1.35500–1.35534 (psychological level, session high) / 1.35706 (previous day’s high, 10-day high); Support: 1.35172–1.35213 (session low, 5-day SMA) / 1.34995–1.35010 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement, 10-day SMA)
NAS100 — Resistance: 29,500.0–29,514.6 (psychological level, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement) / 29,623.8 (10-day EMA); Support: 29,436.9–29,445.8 (session low, 75-day SMA) / 29,387.2–29,401.6 (55-day SMA, 21-day EMA)
USOIL — Resistance: 85.738 (session high, 10-day high) / 86.000 (psychological level); Support: 82.814–82.848 (20-day SMA, 75-day EMA) / 82.589–82.642 (25-day SMA, 10-day EMA)
SP500 — Resistance: 7,721.3 (10-day EMA) / 7,752.0–7,758.6 (session high, 10-day SMA); Support: 7,698.6–7,700.4 (psychological level, session low) / 7,655.9–7,660.9 (21-day EMA, 20-day EMA)
So far this week, U.S. crude oil has gained 3.32%, GBP/USD is up 0.05%, gold has fallen 0.81%, and the Nasdaq has declined 2.24%.
Gold has traded within a weekly range of 4,327.19–4,436.17, with the current close positioned near the lower end of that range.
From a medium-term perspective, gold is now trading below its 20-week moving average (4,389.58, approximately five months) while remaining above its 100-week moving average (approximately two years), suggesting the medium-term structure has come under pressure.
Economic Data Review & Outlook
Overnight Data
- U.S. Housing Starts (MoM) came in at -12.4%, below expectations (previous reading revised to 19.7%).
- New Zealand PPI Input Index (QoQ) came in at 2.9%, above expectations.
- U.S. Pending Home Sales (MoM) came in at -2.3%, below expectations (previous reading revised to -4.8%).
- U.S. Industrial Production (YoY) came in at 1.1%, above expectations.
Today’s Focus
Markets will first focus on a speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde.
ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks ★★★
Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY ★★★
Forecast: 3.2% | Previous: 3.2%
ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks ★★★
Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) MoM ★★
Forecast: 2.8% | Previous: 2.8%
If President Lagarde’s remarks deviate significantly from market expectations, they are likely to impact the euro first and may then spill over to other major currencies through changes in interest rate expectations.
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