{"id":5333,"date":"2025-05-02T15:27:00","date_gmt":"2025-05-02T05:27:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ad-fx.com\/?post_type=market-overview&#038;p=5333"},"modified":"2025-10-30T16:38:38","modified_gmt":"2025-10-30T05:38:38","slug":"us-economic-data-mixed-market-turns-focus-to-non-farm-payroll","status":"publish","type":"market-overview","link":"https:\/\/www.adfxzh.com\/market-overview\/us-economic-data-mixed-market-turns-focus-to-non-farm-payroll\/","title":{"rendered":"US Economic Data Mixed, Market Turns Focus to Non-Farm Payroll"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>U.S. economic data released Wednesday painted a mixed picture, with growing concerns over economic momentum. The Q1 2025 Preliminary GDP came in at -0.3%, sharply down from +2.4% in Q4 2024 and well below market expectations\u2014fueling fears of a potential recession.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"767\" height=\"358\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ad-fx.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-16.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5335\" style=\"width:650px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.adfxzh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-16.png 767w, https:\/\/www.adfxzh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-16-300x140.png 300w, https:\/\/www.adfxzh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-16-150x70.png 150w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 767px) 100vw, 767px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><sub>US GDP Growth Rate; Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis<\/sub><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>On the inflation front, the March PCE Price Index showed further easing. Headline inflation dropped to 2.3% YoY (from 2.7%), and Core PCE\u2014the Fed\u2019s preferred inflation gauge\u2014slipped to 2.6%, reflecting softening price pressures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite slowing growth, investor sentiment has remained resilient over the past two weeks. U.S. and global equity markets continued to advance, largely buoyed by renewed optimism over U.S.-China trade relations. A Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesperson confirmed that U.S. officials had reached out multiple times to restart tariff negotiations\u2014lifting hopes of de-escalation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Markets Eye Key Labor Data Ahead<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>While short-term optimism has been supported by potential trade talks, market fundamentals now hinge on the health of the U.S. labor market, especially after the April reciprocal tariff rollout.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The April ADP Non-Farm Employment Change\u2014often seen as a precursor to Friday\u2019s official NFP report\u2014showed a weaker-than-expected gain of 62K jobs, down from 147K in March, signaling potential softness in the labor market.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"549\" height=\"353\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ad-fx.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-17.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5336\" style=\"width:650px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.adfxzh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-17.png 549w, https:\/\/www.adfxzh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-17-300x193.png 300w, https:\/\/www.adfxzh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-17-150x96.png 150w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 549px) 100vw, 549px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><sub>ADP US Employment Change; source: ADP Inc<\/sub><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>As markets await Friday\u2019s Non-Farm Payroll data, a weaker print could heighten recession fears, weighing on both U.S. equities and the dollar. Conversely, a stronger reading may ease concerns and help sustain the recent momentum in the stock market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Technical Outlook: Dollar Index, SPX500<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"text-decoration:underline\">SPX500: Decisive zone on 5800 &#8211; 5540<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"525\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ad-fx.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-18-1024x525.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5338\" style=\"width:650px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.adfxzh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-18-1024x525.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.adfxzh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-18-300x154.png 300w, https:\/\/www.adfxzh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-18-150x77.png 150w, https:\/\/www.adfxzh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-18-768x394.png 768w, https:\/\/www.adfxzh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-18-1536x788.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.adfxzh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-18.png 1600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><sub>SPX500.cash, Daily<\/sub><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>The SPX500 extended its rally this week, breaking above the key 5540 resistance and signaling a strong recovery. The 5540\u20135800 zone now serves as a pivotal range.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Holding above 5540 keeps the bullish momentum intact and opens the path toward 5800, while a drop back below 5540 could indicate a resumption of the broader downtrend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Today\u2019s Non-Farm Payroll data may provide clearer direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"text-decoration:underline\">DXY: Struggling Around the 100 Mark<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The US Dollar saw a modest rebound this week, but the DXY remains confined within the 99.00\u2013100.50 range, keeping the near-term outlook cautious. A failure to break above 100.50 would maintain the downside bias.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"522\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ad-fx.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-19-1024x522.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5340\" style=\"width:650px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.adfxzh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-19-1024x522.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.adfxzh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-19-300x153.png 300w, https:\/\/www.adfxzh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-19-150x77.png 150w, https:\/\/www.adfxzh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-19-768x392.png 768w, https:\/\/www.adfxzh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-19-1536x783.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.adfxzh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-19.png 1600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><sub>DXY.cash, H4<\/sub><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>A weak NFP print could trigger renewed dollar selling, while a stronger-than-expected reading may ease recession concerns, push back rate cut expectations, and support a broader recovery in the dollar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>U.S. economic data released Wednesday painted a mixed picture, with growing concerns over economic momentum. The Q1 2025 Preliminary GDP came in at -0.3%, sharply down from +2.4% in Q4 2024 and well below market expectations\u2014fueling fears of a potential recession. On the inflation front, the March PCE Price Index showed further easing. Headline inflation [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-5333","market-overview","type-market-overview","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>US Economic Data Mixed, Market Turns Focus to Non-Farm Payroll - ADFX<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.adfxzh.com\/fr\/market-overview\/us-economic-data-mixed-market-turns-focus-to-non-farm-payroll\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"US Economic Data Mixed, Market Turns Focus to Non-Farm Payroll\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"U.S. economic data released Wednesday painted a mixed picture, with growing concerns over economic momentum. 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