On Friday (August 14), U.S. retail sales came in well below expectations, allowing gold to extend its gains. Silver, the euro, and U.S. crude oil also moved higher, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average came under pressure. A weaker U.S. dollar provided additional support for commodities. Today, market attention turns to Japan’s quarterly GDP growth, followed by Japan’s GDP Price Index (YoY) and annualized GDP growth rate.

The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.30%. U.S. crude oil gained 1.42% (2.8% intraday range), gold rose 0.62% (2.0% range), silver advanced 0.45% (3.4% range), the euro climbed 0.36% (0.5% range), while the Dow Jones fell 0.32% (0.5% range).

Elsewhere, the S&P 500 declined 0.30%, the Nasdaq slipped 0.22%, Germany’s DAX edged up 0.18%, the FTSE 100 fell 0.40%, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.24%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 1.09%, Australia’s ASX 200 declined 0.80%, and the China A50 fell 0.49%.

Precious Metals

Gold (XAUUSD) closed at 4,376.04 on Friday, gaining 0.62% for the day. During the Asian session, it found support around 4,310.92 at 05:00, before climbing to an intraday high of 4,396.98 during the U.S. session at 16:30. The 4,350 level was briefly lost but successfully reclaimed intraday.

Silver (XAGUSD) also moved higher, gaining 0.45%. Both precious metals showed similar price action and comparable volatility.

The day’s trading range was equivalent to 89% of the 14-day average daily range, ranking at the 55th percentile over the past 20 trading days.

• Short-term: Closed below the 5-day MA (4,377.91)
• Medium-term: Closed above the 20-day MA (4,174.22)
• Long-term: Longer-term moving averages continue to act as resistance

Key resistance is at 4,450.00 (psychological level and previous day’s high of 4,449.72). Support is seen at 4,300.00 (psychological level and the day’s low).

The daily RSI stands at 64, indicating relatively strong momentum. There is still approximately 73.68 points of upside before reaching the recent 5-day high of 4,449.72, which was tested yesterday.

A decisive break above 4,450.00 could open the door to further gains. Conversely, a decline below 4,300.00 would require a reassessment of the current bullish structure.

Key Levels: 4,450.00 Resistance | 4,300.00 Support

Euro

The euro (EURUSD) closed at 1.15685 on Friday, up 0.36% for the day, while posting a fresh 20-day high. It stabilized around 1.15253 during the Asian session at 00:00, before reaching 1.15849 during the U.S. session at 17:15.

The day’s range equaled 110% of the 14-day average daily range, ranking at the 75th percentile over the past 20 trading days.

• Short-term: Closed above the 5-day MA (1.15410) after opening below it
• Medium-term: Closed above the 20-day MA (1.14815)
• Long-term: Longer-term moving averages continue to provide support

Resistance is at 1.15849 (daily high and 10-day high), while support is located at 1.15500 (psychological level and daily low).

The daily RSI is 62, indicating positive momentum. The recent 5-day low at 1.15113 offers only limited downside buffer after being tested yesterday.

A confirmed break above 1.15849 could lead to a move toward higher levels.

Key Levels: 1.15849 Resistance | 1.15500 Support

Dow Jones

The DJ30 closed at 53,720.9 on Friday, down 0.32%. After trading near the highs, the index reversed lower and finished close to the day’s low, suggesting selling pressure remained into the close.

It reached 53,937.9 during the Asian session at 05:15, before falling to 53,682.4 during the U.S. session at 19:45.

The day’s range represented 40% of the 14-day average daily range, ranking at the 5th percentile over the past 20 sessions.

• Short-term: Closed below the 5-day MA (53,848.1) after opening above it
• Medium-term: Closed above the 20-day MA (53,042.1)
• Long-term: Longer-term moving averages continue to provide support

Resistance is at 54,000.0 (psychological level and previous day’s high of 54,086), while support is at 53,664.6 (previous day’s low of 53,654 and today’s low).

The daily RSI stands at 58, indicating neutral momentum. The MACD histogram continues to narrow, suggesting weakening short-term momentum. The recent 5-day low of 53,654.0 remains approximately 66.9 points below current levels and was tested yesterday.

Failure to reclaim 54,000.0 could leave the index trading in a mildly bearish consolidation.

Key Levels: 54,000.0 Resistance | 53,664.6 Support

U.S. Crude Oil

USOIL closed at 82.408 on Friday, up 1.42%. It found support around 80.753 during the Asian session at 05:00, before reaching 83.033 during the European session at 10:00. The 81.00 level was briefly lost but regained during the session.

The day’s range equaled 55% of the 14-day average daily range, ranking at the 10th percentile over the past 20 sessions.

• Short-term: Closed below the 5-day MA (82.438)
• Medium-term: Closed below the 20-day MA (82.710)
• Long-term: Longer-term moving averages continue to provide support

Resistance is at 84.000 (psychological level and 10-day high), while support is at 79.000 (psychological level and previous day’s low of 80.149).

The daily RSI is 52, indicating neutral momentum. A bullish MACD crossover has appeared. The recent 5-day high at 84.700 remains 2.292 points above current prices and has not been tested for two consecutive sessions.

A decisive break above 84.000 could extend the current rebound.

Key Levels: 84.000 Resistance | 79.000 Support

Key Price Levels

XAUUSD

• Resistance: 4,400.00 (psychological level, daily high) / 4,450.00 (psychological level, previous day’s high of 4,449.72)
• Support: 4,350.00 (psychological level, previous day’s low of 4,343.71) / 4,300.00 (psychological level, daily low)

XAGUSD

• Resistance: 65.000 (5-day SMA, 250-day EMA) / 66.000 (psychological level, previous day’s high of 66.297)
• Support: 64.000 (psychological level, previous day’s low of 64.21) / 63.000 (psychological level, daily low)

EURUSD

• Resistance: 1.15849 (daily high, 10-day high) / 1.16000 (psychological level)
• Support: 1.15670 (100-day SMA, 250-day EMA) / 1.15500 (psychological level, daily low)

DJ30

• Resistance: 54,000.0 (psychological level, previous day’s high of 54,086) / 54,795.0 (10-day high, 20-day high)
• Support: 53,664.6 (previous day’s low of 53,654 and daily low) / 53,500.0 (psychological level, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement)

USOIL

• Resistance: 84.000 (psychological level, 10-day high) / 89.000 (psychological level, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement)
• Support: 79.000 (psychological level, previous day’s low of 80.149) / 78.000 (psychological level, 250-day EMA)

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So far this week, silver has gained 1.81%, gold has risen 0.80%, the euro is up 0.10%, while the Dow Jones has declined 0.61%.

Gold has traded within a weekly range of 4,310.92–4,449.72, with the current close positioned near the middle of that range.

From a medium-term perspective, gold is currently trading below the 20-week moving average (4,389.58, approximately five months) while remaining above the 100-week moving average (approximately two years), suggesting that the medium-term structure is facing some pressure.

Economic Data Review & Outlook

Overnight Data

• U.S. Retail Sales (MoM): -0.6%, below expectations
• U.S. Core Retail Sales (MoM): -0.3%, below expectations
• France CPI (MoM): 0.6%, in line with expectations
• Eurozone GDP (QoQ): 0.4%, in line with expectations (previous reading revised but remains 0.4%)

Today’s Focus

Markets will first turn their attention to Japan’s Quarterly GDP Growth.

Why it matters: It is a broad measure of economic momentum and plays an important role in the medium-term pricing of the Japanese yen.

• Japan GDP QoQ ★★★: Forecast 0.1% | Previous 0.5%
• Japan GDP Price Index (YoY) ★★: Forecast 3.2% | Previous 3.2%
• Japan Annualized GDP ★★: Forecast 0.5% | Previous 1.8%
• Japan Net Exports Contribution to GDP (QoQ) ★★: Forecast 0.4% | Previous 0.3%

A significant deviation in Japan’s quarterly GDP from expectations could first impact the Japanese yen, before feeding through to other major currencies via shifts in interest rate expectations.

Disclaimer: the above is general market information and a review of published data only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell. CFDs and other leveraged products carry a high level of risk and can result in losses exceeding your initial deposit.
Past performance is not indicative of future results; please assess your own circumstances carefully.