Market Theme 

Major assets diverged, with no single theme in charge. On the data front, JPY BoJ L Money Stock y/y printed 4.4%, below forecasts. 

The dollar index was little changed; gold rose modestly 0.69%; U.S. indices mixed (the Nasdaq 100 bounced 0.96%); in Europe the DAX showed no meaningful move, the FTSE 100 traded flat; in Asia-Pacific the Hang Seng crept lower 0.85%, the Nikkei 225 powered higher 2.01%, the ASX 200 ticked down 0.27%, the China A50 recovered 0.80%; crude nudged down 0.21%. 

Market Recap 

In the precious metals, gold (XAUUSD) ground steadily higher on Wednesday, settling at 4,399.4, marginally higher by 0.69% on the day, printing a fresh 10-day high along the way. Silver (XAGUSD) advanced 1.28% alongside it — with more beta than gold. The session lacked a single macro driver, leaving technicals in charge. On the technicals, gold is riding the upper Bollinger band; the RSI has moved into overbought territory at 71 — the advance looks stretched. Key resistance sits at the upper Bollinger band at 4,422.96: a decisive break would harden the bull case, while a rejection puts the defence of the 5-day moving average at 4,362.06 back in focus. With the market in wait-and-see mode, attention turns to USD PPI m/m: a dollar-positive print would put gold at risk of a pullback. Overall, the range persists and a decisive break will need a catalyst. 

The Nikkei 225 (J225) closed firmer on Wednesday, settling at 68,522.5, markedly higher by 2.01% on the day, printing a fresh 10-day high along the way. The session lacked a single macro driver, leaving technicals in charge. Initial resistance sits at 69000 (round-number handle), with support eyed at 66,797.30 (the 5-day moving average). Near term, the upper Bollinger band keeps getting tested, with buyers in control; watch whether the 69000 handle gives way. On the daily chart, the RSI reads 60, neutral-to-firm, with momentum intact. Overall, the upside structure is intact and sentiment leans constructive, though upside stays capped until the 69000 handle clears decisively. 

Key Levels 

XAUUSD — resistance 4,422.96 (the upper Bollinger band) / 4,435.13 (10-day high); support 4,362.06 (the 5-day moving average) / 4300 (round-number handle) 

J225 — resistance 69000 (round-number handle); support 66,797.30 (the 5-day moving average) / 65,520.50 (the 10-day moving average) 

XAGUSD — resistance 65.673 (the upper Bollinger band) / 66.473 (10-day high); support 64.372 (the 5-day moving average) / 65 (round-number handle) 

Economic Calendar Recap & Preview 

Today’s focus: USD PPI m/m at 08:30 EDT (U.S. Eastern) 

Why it matters: to confirm the U.S. inflation path and, with it, the outlook for the dollar and rates 

Market consensus: forecast 0.5%, prior -0.3% 

What to watch: The market’s focus is USD PPI m/m — firm data would favour the dollar and put gold back on the defensive, with the 5-day moving average at 4,362.06 the support to watch. For now, though, until a fresh driver lands gold is more likely to keep digesting inside its range. 

On the data front, JPY BoJ L Money Stock y/y printed 4.4% (prior 4.5%, forecast 5.1%), below forecasts; USD CPI m/m printed 0.1% (prior -0.4%, forecast 0.2%), below forecasts; USD Core CPI m/m printed 0.2% (prior 0.0%, forecast 0.2%), in line with forecasts; USD CPI y/y printed 3.4% (prior 3.5%, forecast 2.7%), above forecasts. Looking to the next 24 hours (Thu 13 Aug 2026), the high-impact calendar carries USD PPI m/m at 08:30 EDT (U.S. Eastern) (forecast 0.5%, prior -0.3%) — likely to steer the dollar, gold and U.S. equity indices near-term; USD Initial Jobless Claims at 08:30 EDT (U.S. Eastern) (forecast 213K, prior 199K); USD 30-Year Bond Auction at 13:00 EDT (U.S. Eastern) (prior 5.058%). 

Volatility alert: silver’s daily range ran to about 172% of its ATR — swings are running hot, so mind the risk. 

Tick-volume data are not provided. Volatility can pick up quickly — please mind position sizing and risk management. 

This report is dated by its publication day (China time) and recaps the previous completed trading session. 

Server time is set to GMT+3 during U.S. Daylight Saving Time and GMT+2 during U.S. Standard Time.