Market Themes
The US Dollar Index strengthened. In terms of focus, the market is awaiting the RBA interest rate decision, the outcome of which will directly set the tone for the Australian Dollar and risk assets; before the results are released, the market may remain primarily in wait-and-see mode.
The US Dollar Index edged up by 0.17%, gold closed 0.40% higher, and US stock indices generally traded lower (Nasdaq fell slightly by 0.43%). In Europe, the German DAX edged down 0.16%, and the UK FTSE 100 fell 0.41%. In the Asia-Pacific region, the Hang Seng Index rose slightly by 0.60%, the Nikkei 225 rose 0.68%, the ASX 200 fell slightly by 0.58%, China’s A50 closed 0.50% lower, and crude oil surged 4.39%.
Market Review
In precious metals, gold (XAUUSD) extended its gains on Monday, closing at 4,360.2, up 0.40% for the day. Silver (XAGUSD) simultaneously surged 2.24%, hitting a new 10-day high. Notably, even with the overall strength of the US dollar, gold still closed higher against the trend, demonstrating resilience in buying interest. Technically, gold is currently trading near the upper Bollinger Band, with the RSI at 67, indicating a neutral-to-strong bias with remaining upward momentum. Key resistance is located at the 4,400 psychological level; a valid breakout would further strengthen bullish confidence. If resisted, attention should be paid to the support at the upper Bollinger Band of 4,349.93 after the breakout. In the next trading session, watch for the RBA interest rate decision for directional guidance on the AUD. Overall, buying support remains, and the retracement appears more like a consolidation on the way up; however, until the 4,400 psychological level is effectively breached, the upside remains capped.
US Crude Oil (USOIL) extended its gains on Monday, closing at 82.052, surging 4.39% during the day. Notably, even with the overall strength of the US dollar, US crude oil still closed higher against the trend, demonstrating resilience in buying interest. Brent crude oil rose strongly by 3.64% at the same time, with oil prices in both regions moving in the same direction. Initial resistance above is seen at 83.030 (20-day moving average), while support below should be noted at 80.197 (10-day moving average). In the short term, bullish momentum dominates, and the correction has not yet damaged the upward structure; focus on whether it can effectively break above the 20-day moving average of 83.030. The daily RSI is at 56, neutral-to-strong, with remaining upward momentum. Overall, the trend itself remains upward, with disagreements focused more on the pace rather than the direction; however, until the 20-day moving average of 83.030 is effectively breached, the upside remains capped.
Key Levels
XAUUSD —— Resistance: 4,400 (Psychological Level) / 4,371.84 (10-day high); Support: 4,349.93 (Upper Bollinger Band after breakout) / 4,307.84 (5-day moving average)
USOIL —— Resistance: 83.030 (20-day moving average) / 85 (Psychological Level); Support: 80.197 (10-day moving average) / 78.023 (5-day moving average)
XAGUSD —— Resistance: 65.276 (Intraday high); Support: 64.225 (Upper Bollinger Band after breakout) / 63.125 (5-day moving average)
Economic Data Review and Outlook
Today’s Focus: 14:30 (Australian Eastern Standard Time, AEST) · RBA Interest Rate Decision
Why it matters: The outcome will directly set the tone for the Australian Dollar and risk assets.
Market Expectation: Previous 4.35%
Tonight’s Focus: The most direct impact of this data will be on the AUD, with volatility likely to increase significantly around the announcement; the direction will still need to be determined after the results are released.
Latest data shows: Japan’s Current Account n.s.a. was recorded at -92.3B (Previous: 3968.3B, Forecast: 2290.8B), lower than expected; Japan’s Adjusted Current Account was recorded at 1396.9B (Previous: 3064.5B, Forecast: 3421.0B), lower than expected. Looking ahead to the next 24 hours (Tuesday, August 11), high-impact events include: 14:30 (Australian Eastern Standard Time, AEST) · RBA Interest Rate Decision (Previous: 4.35%) — which may dominate the short-term direction of the AUD; 10:00 (Eastern Daylight Time, EDT) US · Existing Home Sales (Forecast: 4.00M, Previous: 4.09M).
Tick-volume data are not provided. Volatility can pick up quickly — please mind position sizing and risk management. This report is dated by its publication day (China time) and recaps the previous completed trading session. Server time is set to GMT+3 during U.S. Daylight Saving Time and GMT+2 during U.S. Standard Time.