Market Themes

As of yesterday’s US market close, commodities and USD/JPY strengthened in tandem, while Gold and the Nasdaq moved slightly lower. This divergence itself is worth noting: Silver rose 0.69%, US Crude Oil surged 3.47%, and USD/JPY gained 0.49%, whereas Gold fell 0.11% and the Nasdaq dropped 0.72%. A more reasonable interpretation is that independent drivers emerged within commodities while precious metals and tech stocks failed to keep pace for now; a single day’s divergence is not yet sufficient to determine a shift in the main theme.

The France Consumer Price Index (CPI) MoM released during the day came in at 0.7%, meeting expectations.

US Crude Oil rose 3.47%; Nasdaq fell 0.72%; Silver rose 0.69%; USD/JPY rose 0.49%; Gold fell 0.11%.

Silver（XAGUSD）

Closed at 63.643 per ounce, recording a gain of 0.69%. In the European session at 08:00, it tested down to near 62.544 before finding support, surging to 63.934 in the US session at 19:00, regaining the 63 mark after losing it intraday. Intraday amplitude was 55% of its 14-day average daily volatility, ranking at the 5th percentile over the past 20 days, with price action signaling relatively narrow trading. Short-term sits below the MA5 (64.430); medium-term sits above the MA50 (62.618); long-term moving average MA100 (66.693) exerts suppression above.

Key resistance: 64.997–65.000 (key round number, 25-day EMA), 2.1% from current prices, requiring a close above to be valid; downside support: 62.320 (previous day low, 10-day low), 2.1% from current prices, with a loss on a closing basis taking precedent. The confirmation line lies at MA5 (64.430); before reclaiming it, a bounce-back is more like a correction than a trend reversal; once 62.320 (previous day low, 10-day low) is lost on a closing basis, weakness may extend toward the 58.000 (round number) level.

Key focus: 64.997–65.000 Resistance | 62.320 Support.

Energy Market

US Crude Oil (USOIL) closed at 105.503, recording a gain of 3.47%. In the European session at 12:45, it tested down to near 101.241 before finding support, surging to 106.752 in the US session at 17:15, successively breaking above the 102, 103, 104, and 105 marks intraday and holding firm above them. Intraday amplitude was approximately 131% of its 14-day average daily volatility. Short- and medium-term prices both sit above the MA5 (101.696) and MA20 (91.227); the long-term moving average MA100 (87.205) provides support underneath.

Key resistance: 108.000 (round number), 2.4% from current prices, requiring a close above to be valid; downside support: 103.000 (round number), 2.4% from current prices, with a loss on a closing basis taking precedent. 108.000 (round number) is the first substantial resistance above, and chasing long positions is not advised before a breakthrough; if 103.000 (round number) is lost on a closing basis, the next observation level sits at 97.000–97.044 (round number, 10-day SMA).

Key focus: 108.000 Resistance | 103.000 Support.

Foreign Exchange Market

USD/JPY (USDJPY) closed at 155.082, recording a gain of 0.49%. In the Asian session at 23:00, it tested down to near 154.199 before finding support, surging to 155.228 in the European session at 08:00, breaking above the 155 mark intraday and holding firm above it, reclaiming the MA10 (154.987), though still remaining below the MA20 (157.147), with short-term structure seeing some repair.

Key resistance: 156.275 (previous week high), 0.8% from current prices, requiring a close above to be valid; downside support: 154.000 (round number), 0.7% from current prices, with a loss on a closing basis taking precedent. Before reclaiming the MA20 (157.147), bounces are still treated as pressure relief; if 154.000 (round number) is further lost on a closing basis, the next observation level sits at 152.874–153.000 (round number, 10-day low).

Key focus: 156.275 Resistance | 154.000 Support.

Other Asset Performance

NAS100 (Nasdaq)

The Nasdaq (NAS100) fell 209.5 points to close at 29,002.6, recording a drop of 0.72%. Key resistance: 29,186.7–29,214.8 (day high, Fib 61.8%), 0.7% from current prices; downside support: 28,764.7 (100-day EMA), 0.8% from current prices. Key focus: 29,186.7–29,214.8 Resistance | 28,764.7 Support.

XAUUSD (Gold)

Closed at 4,292.78 per ounce, recording a drop of 0.11%. Key resistance: 4,350.00–4,352.51 (round number, 200-day EMA, 75-day EMA), 1.3% from current prices; downside support: 4,200.00 (round number), 2.2% from current prices. Key focus: 4,350.00–4,352.51 Resistance | 4,200.00 Support.

Overview of Key Levels

Instrument	Resistance R1	Resistance R2	Resistance R3	Support S1	Support S2	Support S3
XAUUSD	4350.00–4352.51 Round number, 200-day EMA, 75-day EMA	4439.05–4442.95 25-day SMA, previous week high	4696.81–4700.00 Round number, 20-day high	4200.00 Round number	4019.08 Last month low	3942.97 60-day low
XAGUSD	64.997–65.000 Key round number, 25-day EMA	68.315 10-day high, previous week high	71.154 20-day high, 60-day high	62.320 Previous day low, 10-day low	58.000 Round number	54.766 60-day low
USDJPY	156.275 Previous week high	157.000–157.147 Round number, 20-day SMA	160.193 Last month high	154.000 Round number	152.874–153.000 Round number, 10-day low	148.000 Round number
NAS100	29186.7–29214.8 Day high, Fib 61.8%	29755.8–29768.3 10-day high, 20-day high	30265.7 Last month high	28764.7 100-day EMA	28206.3 Last month low	27500.0 Key round number
USOIL	108.000 Round number	113.000 Round number	119.000 Round number	103.000 Round number	97.000–97.044 Round number, 10-day SMA	91.089 Previous week low

Resistance and support are each arranged from nearest to farthest: R1/S1 are the nearest, R3/S3 are the farthest.

Week-to-date, USD/JPY is up 1.20%, Silver is up 0.24%, Gold is down 0.38%, and Nasdaq is down 1.21%.

Gold’s trading range for the week is 4,253.61 – 4,355.33, with price action’s daily close situated near the midpoint of the range.

From a medium-term structural view, Gold currently sits above its 20-week moving average (4,333.30, approximately five months) and remains above its 100-week moving average (approximately two years), with the medium-term trend not yet damaged.

Looking ahead today, market focus turns first to the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY—the core inflation reading that dictates rate path expectations.