Market Themes

On October 1, the US Dollar and interest rate environment were generally strong. The Euro closed lower for a fourth consecutive trading session, surrendering the 1.1300 level. Gold and silver recovered from their Asian session lows, but neither reclaimed their respective MA5, making the bounce closer to a pressure relief than a reversal. Meanwhile, US crude oil probed lower before being driven up over 2.5% by supply-side risk premiums, closing back above 95 and diverging from the weakness in precious metals.

The Euro closed down at 1.12428; gold closed up at 4,177.13 but failed to reclaim its MA5; silver closed up at 60.979; the Nasdaq closed up at 30,542.7; US crude oil closed up at 95.224.

EURUSD 

The Euro (EURUSD) closed lower for a fourth consecutive trading session, closing at 1.12428, down approximately 0.76% from the previous close of 1.13288. It spiked to 1.13363 at 01:15 in the Asian session before turning weak, pulling back to 1.12146 at 17:15 in the US session; the 1.1300 round-number mark was surrendered intraday, with the close remaining below that level. The strong US Dollar and interest rate environment served as the main suppression: elevated US Treasury yields mean a decline in the relative attractiveness of Eurozone assets, with capital preferring to remain on the US Dollar side.

From the daily structure, the Euro remains below the MA5 (1.13347) and MA20 (1.14780), with both short- and medium-term moving averages exerting overhead resistance. The MA5 serves as the watershed for this move—without reclaiming it, a reversal is out of the question. The 1.1200 round-number mark below is about 0.4% away from current prices, subject to confirmation on a closing basis; if that level is lost, 1.1100 is the next position to watch. Going forward, observe whether the Euro can reclaim 1.1300 and subsequently test the MA5 to confirm a bottoming out.

Spot Gold（XAUUSD） 

Spot Gold (XAUUSD) closed up at 4,177.13, rising approximately 0.43% from the previous close of 4,159.29. It probed down to 4,139.23 at 00:45 in the Asian session before stabilizing, testing up to 4,192.88 at 05:30; the early-session low was not retested thereafter, and the 4,150 round-number mark was lost and regained intraday. Although the price closed higher, it has yet to reclaim the MA5 (4,183.23); against the backdrop of a strong interest rate environment, the bounce is still viewed as pressure relief rather than confirmation of a reversal.

The daily MA5 (4,183.23) is key to judging whether the bounce can upgrade: rate hikes increase policy rates, which raises real interest rates when inflation expectations remain unchanged, thereby increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold—a mechanism that suppresses precious metals in the current environment. Support below at 4,110.83 (10-day low, 20-day low) is about 1.6% away from current prices, subject to confirmation on a closing basis; if further lost, the next observation level lies at 3,959.60 (60-day low).

XAGUSD 

Spot Silver (XAGUSD) closed up at 60.979, rising approximately 0.81% from the previous close of 60.488. It probed down to a low of 59.947 at 00:15 in the Asian session before recovering, reclaiming the 60.0 round-number mark; however, after spiking to 61.421 at 05:30, it failed to hold above 61.0, showing weaker bounce strength than gold. Silver simultaneously faces the dual impact of a strong interest rate environment and uncertain industrial demand expectations, constraining its recovery. Going forward, observe whether 61.0 can be held on a closing basis, with the 60.0 mark below serving as short-term support reference.

NAS100 

Nasdaq (NAS100) closed up at 30,542.7, rising approximately 0.15% from the previous close of 30,498.2, marking its third consecutive session of gains. It spiked to 30,922.4 at 06:00 in the Asian session before turning weak, pulling back to 30,301.9 at 15:00 in the US session; intraday, it broke above 30,500 and held firm, but the relatively low closing level shows overhead pressure remains. The strong interest rate environment exerts valuation suppression on high-valuation growth stocks, and the Nasdaq surrendered part of its gains after making a stage high, reflecting profit-taking pressure following earlier advances.

Going forward, observe whether 30,500 can hold, with 30,844.5 (previous week high, last month high) above serving as the next resistance reference. 

US Crude Oil (WTI / Symbol: USOIL) 

US Crude Oil (WTI / Symbol: USOIL) closed up at 95.224, rising approximately 2.51% from the previous close of 92.888, marking its second consecutive session of gains. It probed down to a low of 91.153 at 05:15 in the Asian session before recovering, testing up to 96.038 at 17:45 in the US session, successively reclaiming the 92, 93, 94, and 95 round-number marks and holding firm above them. Supply-side risk premiums were the primary driver: potential geopolitical disruptions to supply and transportation prompted the market to price higher risk premiums into crude oil, diverging from the weakness in precious metals.

From the daily structure, US crude oil has returned above the MA5 (94.3604), but remains below the MA10 (95.6301) and MA20 (97.35), with medium-term moving averages still exerting suppression. Going forward, observe whether 95 can hold and the room above 96.038; if supply-side headlines fade, watch for the possibility of filling back toward the previous close near 92.888.

Outlook Focus 

Focus on whether the Euro can reclaim 1.1300 and the MA5 (1.13347) to confirm a bottoming out, and whether gold can stand above the MA5 (4,183.23) to confirm an upgraded bounce; for US crude oil, observe whether 95 can hold and the room above 96.038, and if supply-side headlines fade, watch for the possibility of filling back toward the previous close near 92.888. 

Overview of Key Levels 

Instrument	Direction	Near R1 / S1	Medium R2 / S2	Far R3 / S3
XAUUSD	Resistance	4250.00 Key round number	4383.34 Previous week high	4510.77 Last month high
XAUUSD	Support	4110.83 10-day low, 20-day low	3959.60 60-day low	3750.00 Key round number
XAGUSD	Resistance	63.000 Round number	64.941–65.000 Key round number, 250-day EMA	68.291–68.315 20-day high, Upper Bollinger Band
XAGUSD	Support	59.000 Round number	56.000 Round number	54.766 60-day low
EURUSD	Resistance	1.13000 Round number	1.13500 Round number	1.14899–1.14952 10-day high, 75-day SMA
EURUSD	Support	1.12000 Round number	1.11000 Round number	1.09500 Round number
NAS100	Resistance	30844.5 Previous week high, last month high	31500.0 Round number	32000.0 Round number
NAS100	Support	30000.0–30019.5 Key round number, 21-day EMA	29648.3–29649.0 50-day EMA, previous week low	28771.1 20-day low, last month low
USOIL	Resistance	101.000–101.038 Key round number, 21-day EMA	106.752 20-day high, 60-day high	110.000 Key round number
USOIL	Support	92.425 Previous week low	86.518 Last month low	73.000 Round number

Resistance and support are each arranged from nearest to farthest: R1/S1 are the nearest, R3/S3 are the farthest.