Ikhtisar Pasar

Gold firms while yen stays weak as focus shifts to Japan GDP and Canada inflation 

Tim ADFX

Market Recap 

XAUUSD 
XAUUSD finished the 18 May session at 4566.19, up 35.11 or 0.775% from the open at 4531.08. Price action spanned 103.74, equivalent to 2.29% of the open, ranging from a low of 4480.47 at 03:45 to a high of 4584.21 at 16:55. The intraday sequence was low before high, with the trough setting new 5‑day and 10‑day lows and forming near the 4480 handle, while the subsequent advance carried the market above 4580 into the late afternoon. By the close, XAUUSD sat 18.0 below the session high and 85.7 above the low, placing settlement in the upper section of the day’s distribution; it also ended 3.81 below the nearest $10 increment on the tape. Relative to recent context, the day’s high remained below the 5‑day high at 4726.75, while the fresh multi‑day low highlighted the early‑session downside extension. On the higher timeframe, daily RSI(14) printed 51.95, offering a mid‑range momentum reading without an explicit tilt from this single metric. Intraday structure featured an early test of the 4480 round level, a recovery into the 16:55 peak at 4584.21, and consolidation into the 23:57 session end. Overall, the market traversed a two‑handle span exceeding one hundred points and closed nearer the top than the bottom of the day’s range, with key reference points marked by the 4480 low, the 4584.21 high, and a settlement just shy of the next $10 mark. 

USDJPY 
USDJPY set a late-session peak at 159.07 at 22:00, establishing new 5‑day and 10‑day highs before settling at 158.78. The day began at 158.58 and slipped to the session low of 158.50 at 00:11, after which price gradually worked higher, pressing through the 159.00 figure into the evening high and then easing into the close. The pair added 0.21 on the day, a rise of 0.13%, with an intraday range of 0.57, equal to 0.36% of the opening level. The close sat near the center of the day’s range, leaving the early low and the late high broadly balanced within the session profile. Round-number levels featured throughout: the half‑figure at 158.50 defined the downside early on, while the 159.00 handle was traded ahead of the 22:00 high; there was no shift of 10‑handle on the day. From a higher‑timeframe perspective, the 21‑period EMA on H1 was at 158.83, and the finish at 158.78 was marginally below that gauge, while remaining above the H4 21‑EMA at 158.49. Intraday highs stood above both moving averages, and the session low was just above the H4 EMA reference. Overall, the period featured an early dip, a steady bid into a new multi‑day high late in the session, and a close that neither challenged the extremes nor diverged materially from nearby hourly and four‑hour moving averages. 

Economic Calendar Recap & Preview 

No major economic data was released. Focus now turns to Japan at 02:50 server time, where GDP quarter over quarter is projected at 0.4 percent after 0.3 previously, while GDP year over year is expected to accelerate to 2.0 percent from 1.3; the GDP price index year over year is seen at 3.5 percent, a touch above 3.4 prior. Later, Canada’s inflation update at 15:30 will draw attention: core CPI year over year is expected to ease to 2.2 percent, after 2.5 previously. If core inflation prints above forecast, expectations for a slower pace of policy easing may firm. Volatility could be elevated around the Canadian release, particularly in front-end rates and CAD crosses. 

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