市場概況

Dollar firms as gold retreats and yen weakens ahead of Fed remarks 

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Market Recap 

XAUUSD 
XAUUSD finished the 26 Mar session at 4381.02, down 130.87 or 2.90% from the open. Price opened at 4511.89 and quickly extended higher to 4544.44 at 04:03, marking the day’s peak in the 4540 handle, before reversing and progressively trading lower through the US afternoon to set the low at 4351.15 at 23:06. The session spanned 193.29, equivalent to 4.28% of the open, and covered multiple round-number handles, including a test above 4540 early and a break below 4400 late. By the close, the market sat 29.9 above the trough and 163.4 beneath the session high, placing settlement near the lower end of the intraday range. The sequence featured an early high followed by a persistent descent into the final hours, with no revisit of the morning top after 04:03. On higher timeframes, H4 momentum gauges were subdued, with MACD at -52.73 and RSI(14) at 45.63, while the broader backdrop kept spot above the 10-day low at 4098.87. The day’s structure leaves a clear band of intraday reference levels: the 4540 area as the initial upside inflection, the 4400 handle as an intraday break point on the way down, and 4351.15 as the current downside marker. Overall, realized volatility was elevated versus the prior day’s close in absolute terms, with a wide range and a close closer to the session low than the high. 

AUDUSD 
AUDUSD covered a range of 0.00815, equivalent to 1.17% of the open, with the high posted early and the low late. The session opened at 0.69447 and advanced to 0.69563 at 07:51 before reversing lower; price later slipped under the 0.6900 handle and marked the day’s low at 0.68748 at 23:09. It settled at 0.68851, down 0.00596 or 0.858% on the day, closing near the bottom of the session’s range. The sequence of extremes was high before low, with the early uptick stalling just above 0.6950 and the late slide extending through 0.6900. The finish left the pair near the 0.6900 round figure and not far from the intraday trough. On the higher-timeframe backdrop, the close remained below the daily 21‑EMA at 0.70109, and the session registered fresh 5‑day and 10‑day lows. For further context, price stayed well under the recent 10‑day high at 0.71227. Intraday structure showed resistance emerging around the mid‑0.69s after the morning peak, followed by a steady grind lower into the New York afternoon and a new low set in the final hour. By the close, the instrument had retraced the entire early advance and more, with the settlement anchored in the lower end of the day’s distribution and below the opening level, while the session’s progression emphasized the failure to sustain trade above 0.6950 and the late‑day test of levels below 0.6900. 

USDJPY 
USDJPY set a five-day high late in the session at 159.84 at 23:08 and finished at 159.62, up 0.19 or 0.12% on the day. The pair opened at 159.43, marked the session low at 159.28 by 09:56, and then advanced into the New York afternoon to the late high, leaving a 0.56 range that equated to 0.35% of the opening level. The close fell in the upper half of the day’s range and remained below the 160.00 figure, ending 0.38 beneath that round level. Intraday flow showed an early dip from the open toward 159.30, followed by a steady recovery that carried into the final hour when the day’s peak printed, before a modest pullback into the bell. From a shorter-term technical lens, the close at 159.62 sat 0.06 above the H1 21‑EMA, which was at 159.57, keeping price marginally above that moving average reference into the session end. On the H4 timeframe, RSI was 66.6 and MACD registered at 0.2, indicating momentum conditions consistent with the recent upswing that culminated in the fresh five-session high. Round-number context centered on the 160.00 handle, which was not traded, while the low held above 159.20. By the close, USDJPY had preserved gains versus the open, with the late-session high setting the day’s extreme and the settlement consolidating a little below the round figure after a contained 56‑pip session. 

Economic Calendar Recap & Preview 

A light docket still delivered notable signals: Japan’s underlying inflation quickened, with the BoJ’s trimmed mean core CPI rising to 2.2 percent year over year (prior 1.7, forecast 1.6) and the weighted median advancing to 1.7 percent year over year (prior 0.8, forecast 1.0), underscoring broader price pressures, while in the United States initial jobless claims edged up to 210,000 (prior 205,000) but remained lower than the 216,000 forecast. The next 24 hours are quieter, centered on communication rather than data: at 02:00 server time, Fed Governor Jefferson speaks, and markets will listen for any characterization of inflation progress, labor-market balance, and the policy reaction function. As a basic guide, if policymakers emphasize persistent inflation or tight labor conditions, rate-cut expectations typically soften. No other major releases are scheduled in this window, but headline-sensitive remarks can spur brief volatility in rates and the dollar around the speech. 

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