Market Theme

On September 23, the US dollar strengthened broadly, while the euro and pound both posted their third consecutive daily declines, falling below 1.1400 and 1.3300 respectively. Spot gold retreated after rising earlier in the session, falling 1.58% to close at 4,289.38, while the Nasdaq 100 also pulled back from its intraday high. WTI crude oil was the only instrument to show a distinct move of its own: after dipping to 92.425 during the Asian session, it climbed to 96.764 late in the US session, reclaiming the four psychological levels from 93 to 96 and closing 2.83% higher at 96.384.

A stronger US dollar raises the opportunity cost of holding gold. If inflation expectations do not rise simultaneously, the real-rate environment can weigh on non-yielding assets, which was the main mechanism behind gold’s weakness. The euro and pound showed no clear independent drivers during the session and largely followed the broader dollar move. Oil’s rebound diverged from the stronger dollar, and its drivers need to be assessed alongside supply-side developments. If the move was indeed driven by a supply-risk premium, the day’s pricing focus was more on supply factors than macro liquidity.

Spot Gold (XAUUSD)

Spot gold (XAUUSD) retreated after rising earlier on September 23, closing at 4,289.38, down 1.58% from the previous close of 4,358.25, marking one of the larger single-day declines recently. After rising to 4,369.31 at 00:00 during the Asian session, gold declined throughout the day, reaching 4,274.75 at 17:30 during the US session. It closed near the lower end of the day’s range, at around 15% of the range from the low. The price successively broke below the 4,350 and 4,300 psychological levels.

The main pressure came from the stronger US dollar. Broad dollar strength raises the opportunity cost of holding gold, while a real-rate environment that is not offset by higher inflation expectations can weigh on non-yielding assets. Gold’s previously elevated levels also left the market exposed to profit-taking following its earlier advance. From a daily-chart perspective, the close has fallen below the 10-day MA (4,322.96) and 20-day MA (4,375.78). Below, 4,235.06 marks the 10-day and 20-day lows and is approximately 1.3% below the close, making it an important near-term support reference.

Gold needs to reclaim the 10-day MA (4,322.96) first to ease the downside pressure.

WTI Crude Oil (USOIL)

WTI crude oil (USOIL) rebounded after dipping on September 23, closing at 96.384, up 2.83% from the previous close of 93.729. It was the only instrument to move against the stronger dollar that day. After falling to 92.425 at 04:45 during the Asian session, WTI climbed to 96.764 at 20:30 during the US session. It closed near the upper end of the day’s range, at around 91%. The four psychological levels at 93, 94, 95 and 96 were successively broken to the upside and held intraday. After touching 96, the price remained above the level through the close, indicating a relatively complete rebound.

From a fundamental perspective, if new supply-side disruptions emerged, a risk premium could explain the rebound rather than an improvement in demand expectations. This diverged from the stronger US dollar and suggests that the day’s pricing focus may have been on supply-side factors rather than macro liquidity. On the daily chart, the close at 96.384 has moved above the 20-day MA (95.27), but remains below the 5-day MA (97.48) and 10-day MA (100.11). The short-term rebound has therefore not yet reversed the pressure from the medium-term moving averages.

Looking ahead, attention will be on whether WTI can hold above 96 and further test the 5-day MA (97.48). A move back below 95 would cast doubt on the strength of the rebound.

EURUSD

EURUSD closed at 1.13809 on September 23, down 0.60% from the previous close of 1.14491, marking its third consecutive daily decline. After rising to 1.14502 at 21:00 during the Asian session, the euro weakened, falling to 1.13696 at 17:00 during the US session and closing near the day’s low. The 1.1400 level was broken during the session. Broad US dollar strength was the main source of pressure, while the euro and pound showed no clear independent drivers and largely followed the dollar.

The close has fallen below the 5-day MA (1.14508). Until the pair reclaims this moving average, any rebound can be viewed as easing selling pressure rather than a confirmed recovery. Below, 1.13528 marks the 60-day low and is approximately 0.3% below the close, making it an important near-term support reference.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD closed at 1.32378 on September 23, down 0.80% from the previous close of 1.33439, also marking its third consecutive daily decline. After rising to 1.33470 at 21:45 during the Asian session, the pound weakened, falling to 1.32229 at 17:00 during the US session and closing near the day’s low. The 1.3300 level was broken during the session. The pound weakened alongside the euro, with broad US dollar strength providing the common backdrop. The close has fallen below the 5-day MA (1.33396). Until this moving average is reclaimed, any rebound can be viewed as easing selling pressure. Below, 1.32229 marks the 10-day and 20-day lows and is an important near-term support reference.

NAS100

The Nasdaq 100 (NAS100) pulled back after rising earlier on September 23, closing at 30,522.7, down 0.73% from the previous close of 30,748.3. After rising to 30,844.5 at 06:30 during the Asian session, the index weakened, reaching an intraday low of 30,392.3 at 14:15 during the US session. The 30,500 level was tested at 17:00 and subsequently reclaimed, with the index closing around 29% of the day’s range. Its weakness alongside gold and the euro reflected the pressure that a stronger US dollar can place on risk assets.

The close remains above the 5-day MA (30,184.84), leaving the short-term structure intact, while 30,844.5 has become a near-term resistance reference.

Key Points to Watch

For gold, attention is on whether it can reclaim the 10-day MA (4,322.96) to ease downside pressure, while 4,235.06 represents support at the 10-day and 20-day lows. For WTI crude oil, the focus is on whether it can hold above 96 and further test the 5-day MA (97.48); a move back below 95 would cast doubt on the strength of the rebound. For the euro and pound, attention is on whether the three-day losing streak can be halted and whether their respective 5-day MAs (1.14508/1.33396) can be reclaimed. For the Nasdaq 100, the key level to watch is whether 30,500 can continue to hold.

Key Levels at a Glance

Instrument	Direction	Near R1 / S1	Mid R2 / S2	Far R3 / S3
XAUUSD	Resistance	4,399.57–4,400.00 — Psychological level, previous week’s high	4,500.00 — Major psychological level	4,696.81–4,700.00 — Psychological level, 60-day high
XAUUSD	Support	4,235.06 — 10-day low, 20-day low	4,100.00 — Psychological level	3,959.60 — 60-day low
GBPUSD	Resistance	1.32925–1.33000 — Psychological level, lower Bollinger Band	1.33470–1.33500 — Psychological level, daily high	1.35280 — Previous week’s high
GBPUSD	Support	1.32000 — Psychological level	1.31000 — Psychological level	1.28500 — Psychological level
NAS100	Resistance	30,844.5 — Daily high, 10-day high	31,500.0 — Psychological level	32,000.0 — Psychological level
NAS100	Support	30,000.0 — Major psychological level	29,500.0 — Psychological level	28,771.1 — 10-day low, 20-day low
USOIL	Resistance	99.000 — Psychological level	106.752 — 10-day high, 20-day high	111.000 — Psychological level
USOIL	Support	93.945–94.000 — Psychological level, 50.0% Fibonacci	86.937–87.000 — Psychological level, 55-day SMA	74.423 — Previous month’s low
EURUSD	Resistance	1.14455–1.14508 — Psychological level, daily high, 5-day SMA, 5-day EMA	1.15910–1.15980 — 23.6% Fibonacci, previous week’s high	—
EURUSD	Support	1.13500–1.13528 — Psychological level, 60-day low	1.13000 — Psychological level	1.10500 — Psychological level

Resistance and support levels are arranged from nearest to farthest: R1/S1 are the nearest, while R3/S3 are the farthest.