시장 개요

Sterling firms before BoE while gold steadies and stocks remain soft 

ADFX 팀

Market Recap 

XAUUSD 
XAUUSD registered both a 5‑day low and a 5‑day high in the same session, traversing a 120.61 range (2.99% of the open) from 3995.95 at 17:13 to 4116.56 at 22:02, before settling at 4065.98. The metal opened at 4030.52 and finished 35.46 higher, a 0.88% gain on the day. Price action first undercut the 4000 round level with the 17:13 low, then turned higher into the late hours, surpassing the 4100 handle and peaking at 4116.56, with the close holding above the session’s midpoint but below the high. The high near 22:02 set a new 5‑day peak, while the earlier dip established a 5‑day trough, underscoring a broad intraday span that encompassed two major round‑number tests. On the higher timeframes, the daily RSI14 printed 45.81, and price ended marginally below the 20‑day simple moving average at 4071.61. Intraday gauges showed H1 RSI14 at 55.23 into the close, while the H4 MACD signal line remained below zero at -7.68. By the end of trade at 23:57, the market had retained gains off the sub‑4000 low yet relinquished part of the late advance from above 4100, leaving the settlement in the upper half of the day’s distribution. The sequence from a lower print in the late afternoon to a late‑evening high, with the close back under 4100, outlined a session that tested and briefly exceeded key handles before consolidating into the finish. 

DJ30 
DJ30 ended the 29 Jul session at 51,595.52, down 1,196.0 points or 2.266% on the day, after traversing a 1,390-point range equal to 2.63% of the open. The market opened at 52,791.52 and pushed to the session high of 52,893.47 at 03:21, a stretch that briefly placed price just under the 52,900 area, before retreating into the close. The low was established late at 23:12 at 51,503.47, marking new 5- and 10-day troughs, and the index finished 92 points above that extreme, leaving the close near the lower end of the day’s range. Round numbers featured through the session, with the late-day probe near 51,500 and a settlement about 4.5 points below the 51,600 handle. Relative to higher-timeframe markers, the close sat beneath the H4 21-EMA at 52,290.42 and under the D1 Bollinger midline at 52,386.06. The H4 RSI(14) printed 43.97 by the end of the session, while the 10-day low level now aligns with the intraday floor at 51,503.47. The sequence presented an early uptick from the open to the 03:21 high, a persistent pullback into the US afternoon, and a final downtick into the 23:12 low before a marginal bounce into the close. With the settlement lodged in the lowest decile of the session’s span and below the cited H4 and D1 reference levels, the day’s profile emphasizes the late-session drive toward the newly set multi-day low. 

GBPUSD 
GBPUSD closed at 1.34 for the 00:00 finish, up 71 pips or 0.54% from the 1.33 open. The session traded within a 109‑pip range, about 0.82% of the opening level, setting the low at 15:16 near 1.33 and the high at 22:18 near 1.34, with the sequence of extremes registering low before high. The close sat in the upper end of the day’s range, holding near the late‑session high into the bell. On the higher timeframes, the daily 50‑day simple moving average is at 1.34, and spot ended around that reference. The day also registered a new five‑day high, while the five‑day and ten‑day lows are both marked at 1.33. From the intraday perspective, price advanced after the 15:16 trough toward the evening high and did not revisit the earlier low, positioning the settlement close to the session peak rather than the midpoint of the range. No additional higher‑timeframe momentum indicators were flagged for the period, and no average true range context was provided to benchmark the day’s span. Overall, the session featured a clear progression from the afternoon low into a late high and a close near the top of the range, with price action traversing the 1.33 handle and finishing around the 50‑day average. 

Economic Calendar Recap & Preview 

A steady Federal Reserve set the tone, holding the policy rate at 3.75 percent, while Australia’s inflation slowed more than expected and U.S. crude stocks posted a sharp draw: Australia’s CPI rose 0.6 percent quarter over quarter (prior 1.4 percent, forecast 1.1 percent) and 3.9 percent year over year (prior 4.1 percent, forecast 5.1 percent), and EIA crude oil stocks change fell 7.17 versus a prior 2.01 and a 5.13 forecast. Looking ahead, the Bank of England announces its interest rate decision at 14:00 server time, with the previous level at 3.75 percent; the policy meeting will be closely watched. At 15:30, the first estimate of U.S. GDP is forecast at 1.7 percent quarter over quarter after 2.1 percent previously, while GDP sales are seen at 1.0 percent following 1.9 percent. Initial jobless claims arrive at the same time, expected at 194.0 after 187.0 previously. If GDP outperforms the 1.7 percent forecast, it would typically signal firmer aggregate demand. Briefly, central bank remarks around the BoE decision could color market expectations into the U.S. data window, and headline risk may lift volatility around the 14:00–15:30 releases. 

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