Market Theme
The dollar eased against most majors, lending the precious metals support. On the data front, USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change printed 44K, above forecasts.
Market snapshot:
The dollar broadly softer; gold +4.02%; U.S. indices mixed (the Dow +0.69%); in Asia-Pacific the Hang Seng -0.82% and the Nikkei 225 +0.75%; crude -1.34%.
Market Recap
In the precious metals, gold (XAUUSD) pushed higher on Wednesday, settling at 4,250.2, up 4.02% on the day. Silver (XAGUSD) moved in tandem, up 4.00%. Intraday trade printed a fresh 10-day high — momentum is doing the talking. Silver, with its industrial side, tracked gold through the session. Initial resistance sits at 4300 (round-number handle), with support eyed at 4250 (round-number handle). Near term, price is riding the upper Bollinger band — a trending-strength signature. The daily RSI reads 65 — neutral-to-firm, with momentum intact. Tonight’s focus is USD Initial Jobless Claims: a dollar-positive outcome would keep gold on the defensive with 4250 the level to hold, while a dollar-negative print puts 4300 back in play. Overall, the upside structure is intact and sentiment leans constructive, though upside stays capped until 4300 clears decisively.
Gold (daily, ~6 months), price above its 21-day EMA
Gold (H4, ~1 month), price above its 21-day EMA
U.S. crude (USOIL) came under pressure on Wednesday, settling at 75.074, down 1.34% on the day. Intraday trade marked a fresh 10-day low — supply is still in charge. Initial resistance sits at 76 (round-number handle), with support eyed at 75 (round-number handle). Near term, price stays capped beneath its 21-day EMA and bounces lack force; watch whether 75 holds. The daily RSI reads 43 — neutral-to-soft, with bounce momentum lacking. Overall, sellers hold the near-term edge while the market waits for a sentiment-turning catalyst, though support near 75 can still spark a bounce.
U.S. crude (H4, ~1 month), price below its 21-day EMA
Key Levels
XAUUSD — resistance 4300 (round-number handle) / 4,265.1 (session high); support 4250 (round-number handle) / 3,995.9 (10-day low)
XAGUSD — resistance 63 (round-number handle); support 62 (round-number handle) / 56.556 (10-day low)
USOIL — resistance 76 (round-number handle) / 93.221 (10-day high); support 75 (round-number handle) / 74.423 (session low)
Economic Calendar Recap & Preview
Today’s focus: USD Initial Jobless Claims at 15:30 server time
Why it matters: for a fresh read on the U.S. labour market and, through it, the dollar and rate expectations
Market consensus: forecast 196K, prior 197K
Potential impact: a the dollar-positive outcome favours the the dollar-correlated side of the dollar, gold and U.S. equity indices and pressures the rest; a the dollar-negative print flips the picture.
On the data front, USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change printed 44K (prior 98K, forecast -12K), above forecasts; USD S&P Global Services PMI printed 54.6 (prior 51.2, forecast 52.7), above forecasts; USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI printed 54.1 (prior 54.0, forecast 54.3), below forecasts; USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices Paid printed 70.3 (prior 67.7, forecast 62.0), above forecasts. Looking to the next 24 hours (Thu 06 Aug 2026), the high-impact calendar carries USD Initial Jobless Claims at 15:30 server time (forecast 196K, prior 197K) — likely to steer the dollar, gold and U.S. equity indices near-term.
Volatility alert: gold’s daily range ran to about 304% of its D1 ATR — swings are running hot, so mind the risk.
Note: All times shown are based on server time. Intraday volume data is not provided. Market volatility may increase during these periods; please manage your positions and risk accordingly. Server time automatically adjusts for U.S. Daylight Saving Time (DST): GMT+3 during DST and GMT+2 during U.S. Standard Time.