시장 개요

Dollar steady and gold softer as focus turns to Fed policy 

ADFX 팀

Market Recap 

XAUUSD 
XAUUSD opened at 4079.07 and finished the session at 4028.75, down 50.32 points or 1.234%. The day’s high was set immediately at 01:00 at 4082.74, aligning with the 4080 handle, while the low printed at 17:23 at 4011.45, marking a 5‑day low and coming close to the 4010 handle. The intraday range measured 71.29 points, equivalent to 1.75% of the open. By the close, price sat 53.99 points below the session high and 17.30 above the low, placing the settlement in the lower quarter of the day’s range and beneath the session midpoint at 4047.09. The close was 1.25 points under the 4030 handle. The session thus featured an early high at the outset followed by a steady move lower into the afternoon low and a limited rebound into the close. On the hourly timeframe, RSI‑14 registered 39.34. From a broader lens, the daily upper Bollinger band stood at 4182.56, with spot closing below that reference. Notable round numbers were engaged on both sides: an early test of 4080 failed to spur a retest later in the day, and downside extension probed the low‑4010s before stabilizing into the finish. Overall turnover metrics were not provided, but the defined range and placement of the close indicate net intraday pressure within a contained amplitude relative to the opening level. 

USDJPY 
USDJPY traded in a contained band on Tuesday, finishing at 163.74, up 0.02 or 0.01% from a 163.72 open. Price set the session low at 163.58 at 00:02 before grinding higher to the day’s high of 163.94 at 13:45, then eased back into the close. The intraday range measured 0.36, equivalent to 0.22% of the opening level. The pair did not trade above the 164.00 figure, with the high at 163.94 leaving that round number untested, and it remained well above the 160.00 handle throughout. By the close, USDJPY sat just below the midpoint of the day’s range, 0.16 above the low and 0.20 beneath the high, reflecting an early-session trough followed by a mid-session peak and a modest retracement into the end of trade. From a higher-timeframe perspective, H4 RSI14 printed 47.07 and the H4 MACD signal stood at 0.2, while on H1 RSI14 read 50.37, offering a neutral short-term momentum read around the midline on the hourly and a sub-50 posture on the four-hour. No tests of lower round levels such as 163.50 occurred, with the session bounded between 163.58 and 163.94. The absence of a push through 164.00 kept the topside unbroken, while the early low established the lower edge within the first minutes of trade. Overall turnover metrics were not available, and no daily ATR reference was provided for comparison. 

EURUSD 
EURUSD added 0.00186, or 0.164%, over the session from 1.13665 at the open to 1.13851 at the close, with a 0.0052 intraday range that equated to 106.3% of the current D1 ATR. Price marked the session low at 1.13526 at 13:10, a print that also registered both a 5‑day and 10‑day low, before pushing on to the day’s high at 1.14046 at 19:29; the close finished in the upper half of that range. The sequence set an early afternoon trough followed by an evening peak, leaving the market above the open by the bell while not crossing a 100‑handle. From a structural standpoint, the session spanned roughly 52 pips between the extremes, with the final settlement closer to the high than the low, indicating more of the day’s net progress occurred after the early dip. On higher timeframes, H4 RSI(14) stood at 54.62, while the day’s realized range modestly exceeded its recent average as measured by the daily ATR reference. No tick volume data were provided. High and low timestamps placed the pivot in the European afternoon and the subsequent high into the US evening, aligning the close nearer the session’s upper quartile. No additional multi‑day highs were flagged, and no 100‑handle break was recorded, while the fresh 5D/10D low underscores the session’s extension to new short‑term extremes before retracing into the close. 

Economic Calendar Recap & Preview 

Inflation breadth in Japan was mixed while U.S. sentiment softened: the BoJ’s trimmed mean core CPI held at 2.7 percent year over year, matching both the prior and the forecast, and the weighted median core CPI ticked up to 1.5 percent from 1.4 but came in below the 1.7 forecast; later, the U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index eased to 90.8 from 91.2 yet topped the 89.5 consensus. Looking ahead, Australia’s second‑quarter CPI arrives at 04:30 server time, with quarter over quarter inflation seen slowing to 1.1 percent after 1.4 previously, while the year over year rate is expected at 5.1 percent versus 4.1; a stronger‑than‑forecast CPI would typically firm expectations for tighter policy. U.S. energy data follow at 17:30 with the EIA crude oil stocks change, where inventories previously rose by 2.01 million barrels and are forecast to increase by 5.13 million. The day culminates with the Fed interest rate decision at 21:00 server time; the prior policy rate stood at 3.75 percent, and accompanying communication could shape expectations around the policy path. A brief note of caution: market volatility can increase around the Fed announcement and immediate headlines. 

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