Market Overview

Dollar softens and gold advances as weak jobs data shift policy bets 

ADFX Team

Market Recap 

XAUUSD 
XAUUSD ended the session at 5174.76, up 91.31 or 1.8% from the prior close, after setting the day’s high at 5174.95 at 23:56 and its low at 5063.01 at 13:56. The day spanned 111.94 points, equivalent to 2.2% of the open, with the close pinned at the extreme and less than 0.2 from the peak. The session opened at 5083.45 at 01:00 and first eased to the 5063.01 trough by early afternoon before reversing into a steady climb that carried into the final minutes, when the high was recorded. Price action traversed multiple 10-handle increments through the afternoon and evening, finishing closest to the 5170 handle. On the intraday backdrop, spot held above the H1 20-period SMA at 5123.59 into the close, with pullbacks remaining contained above that marker once the afternoon advance was underway. From a higher-timeframe perspective, XAUUSD also sat well above the D1 50-day SMA at 4870.58 by the bell. The strong late-session finish left the close at the very top of the day’s range, with no late fade, while the earlier low established the session’s sole downside extension before a sequence of higher highs and higher lows developed into the evening. The 5-day high stands at 5419.28, leaving today’s finish and intraday high below that reference level, though the session’s extension built distance from the open and maintained traction above round-number thresholds into the close. 

GBPUSD 
GBPUSD finished the session near its high, closing at 1.34 after opening at 1.33, up 0.46% on the day. The intraday low printed at 1.33 at 14:23, and price later marked the high at 1.34 at 18:46 before settling at 1.34 into the close. The day’s range covered roughly 0.74% of the open and measured about 96.8% of the current D1 ATR, with trading contained within the 1.33–1.34 area. The close was positioned near the top of the range, with a close location of about 97.9%, leaving only a small distance between the final print and the session peak. The sequence featured a dip to the low in the early afternoon followed by a late-session push to the high, with the market ending the day near the upper boundary of its intraday span. On the higher timeframes, spot remained below the daily upper Bollinger Band, which sat near 1.37, while the daily MACD hovered around the zero line. From a structural perspective, the session held inside a single big-figure band, with the 1.33 handle providing the day’s floor and the 1.34 area capping the high watermark late in the day. Overall, the tape reflected a contained yet full-session excursion relative to recent daily volatility, a range that was broad for the day but in line with the prevailing daily average as indicated by the ATR comparison. 

USOIL 
USOIL traversed a wide session on 6 Mar, ranging $14.3, or 18.02% of the open, between a low at 78.29 at 03:00 and a high at 92.59 at 19:43. It opened at 79.36, slipped to the session low shortly after the start, then recovered through the 80 handle and extended through the afternoon, taking out 90 into the evening before setting the day’s peak. The market settled at 91.39, up 12.04 on the day, a 15.17% gain, closing well above the session midpoint at 85.44 and near the top of the day’s range. The advance registered new 5‑day and 10‑day highs, with the close and intraday high both north of the daily Bollinger upper band at 82.56 and far above the daily 21‑EMA at 70.2. On the intraday profile, the early selloff into 03:00 was followed by persistent upward prints, with the 85 area giving way ahead of New York hours and the 90 figure tested and held on the approach to the high at 19:43; the session ended with price consolidating above 91. On higher timeframes, the H4 RSI(14) read 86.63 by the close, while spot remained above the daily Bollinger midline at 68.37. The close near the highs left little retracement from the late-session peak, and the day’s settlement sits firmly in the upper decile of the range, underscoring upward control across the latter half of the session. 

Economic Calendar Recap & Preview 

US labor data surprised to the downside: at 13:30 server time, Nonfarm Payrolls fell by 92,000, compared with a 130,000 prior gain and a 79,000 consensus increase, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4 percent from 4.3 percent, exceeding the 4.2 percent forecast. Over the next 24 hours, the economic calendar is empty with no scheduled data releases in server time, and no rate decisions are due. With no time-stamped indicators on deck, there are no previous or forecast figures to flag for the period ahead; attention will instead remain on positioning and any unscheduled headlines as markets digest the latest labor figures. 

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