Global equities opened the week on a weaker note, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions following U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Meanwhile, last week’s central bank decisions were largely in line with expectations, prompting markets to shift focus toward upcoming economic data and geopolitical developments.

Market Focus: Data and Geopolitical Events

With most major central banks now adopting a data-dependent approach, investor attention is turning toward key economic releases this week. These data points will play a critical role in shaping expectations for the next policy steps, especially in the U.S. and Europe.

Simultaneously, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain a key market risk. The U.S.-led strikes on Iranian nuclear sites have introduced new volatility risks, particularly in commodities and equity markets.

If tensions escalate further or if economic data surprises—either positively or negatively—markets may face renewed turbulence. This risk is amplified as we approach the end of the 90-day U.S. tariff pause period in July, which adds another layer of global trade uncertainty.

Middle East Escalation: Key Risk to Monitor

The U.S. airstrikes on June 21, targeting Iran’s Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan facilities with bunker-buster bombs and cruise missiles, significantly escalated the regional conflict. The U.S. described the strikes as having “obliterated” key nuclear infrastructure.

Iran retaliated by launching missiles and drones at Israel, with confirmed hits on Be’er Sheva, including a hospital and civilian zones. Tehran also threatened to close the vital Strait of Hormuz, a move that could severely disrupt global oil supply.

Calls for international condemnation and de-escalation have intensified, with global powers like Russia and China urging a ceasefire, while Gulf nations have heightened internal security on fears of spillover.

Weekly Outlook: SPX500, US Dollar, and Gold

As the markets digest the geopolitical shock and prepare for economic data releases, risk sentiment remains fragile. The combination of escalating Middle East tensions and uncertainty over global trade tariffs could lead to elevated volatility across major asset classes.

If investor nerves are triggered, we could see a renewed flight to safety, pressuring risk assets and lifting safe havens such as gold and the U.S. dollar.

SPX500: Key Level in Focus Near 6000

The S&P 500 Index continues to hover near the psychologically important 6,000 level, with recent price action reflecting caution.

Technically, the index has recently broken below a rising wedge pattern, but remains in a consolidation zone. If the 6,000 level fails to hold, it could invite fresh downside pressure. Any shift in sentiment—driven by geopolitical escalation or weak data—could trigger renewed selling pressure.

US Dollar: Challenging the 99–100 Zone

The US Dollar posted a modest recovery last week, particularly gaining ground against the Japanese Yen, as the Bank of Japan once again delayed its rate hike expectations. This policy divergence offered support to the greenback in the near term.

However, downside risks remain in place. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and lingering uncertainty over U.S. tariffs continue to cloud the outlook. As such, while the dollar may test the 99.00–100.00 resistance zone, any escalation in geopolitical risk or soft economic data could cap the upside.

Gold: Testing the 3330–3400 Zone

In the gold market, prices experienced a pullback last week despite escalating geopolitical tensions. This retreat suggests moderating demand in the short term, especially as gold approaches the 3400 resistance level, where a technical correction is likely.

That said, the overall bullish structure remains intact, with gold still trading within its uptrend channel. As long as this structure holds, gold remains supported in the near term.

While geopolitical risks could trigger further upside, traders should remain cautious of short-term technical pullbacks. Near-term outlook remains constructive, especially if risk sentiment deteriorates further.