Market Themes

On September 29, news of marginal easing emerged on the crude oil supply side: Middle East exports via the Strait of Hormuz recovered to more than 80% of their pre-war daily average; additionally, reports indicated that Trump supports an early-stage proposal to swap political prisoner releases for a softening of Russian sanctions, which, if progressed, could erode the risk premium associated with restricted Russian oil supply. US Crude Oil (WTI) tested higher to 97.433 in the Asian session at 05:30 before turning weak, probing down to 91.482 in the US session at 20:30, closing at 91.693, down sharply by 4.66%; four round-number marks from 92 to 95 were surrendered in succession on a closing basis on the M15 timeframe.

Supply-side headlines served as an important backdrop for the day’s decline; if weakness in oil prices persists, it could marginally alleviate earlier inflation concerns driven by energy prices.

Following the sharp drop in oil prices, inflation concerns cooled at the margin. New York Fed President Williams stated on the day that there was no need to rush into action following the September rate hike. Under conditions where nominal interest rates do not rise further, upward pressure on real interest rates may ease, correspondingly reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold. Spot Gold (XAUUSD) rebounded off an eight-week low of 4,113.41, closing at 4,180.32, up 1.60%. The US Dollar remained broadly strong overall, with the Euro and British Pound closing lower; the Nasdaq probed lower before recovering amidst intertwined long-end yield highs and falling oil prices, closing up 0.41%.

US Crude Oil closed down 4.66% at 91.693; Spot Gold closed up 1.60% at 4,180.32; Nasdaq closed up 0.41% at 30,431; Euro closed down 0.26% at 1.13405; British Pound closed down 0.17% at 1.32309.

US Crude Oil (WTI / Symbol: USOIL)

US Crude Oil (WTI) spiked higher before falling back on the day, closing at 91.693, down sharply by 4.66% from the previous close of 96.172. In the Asian session at 05:30, it tested up to 97.433 before softening, probing down to 91.482 in the US session at 20:30. Four round-number marks—92, 93, 94, and 95—were surrendered in succession on a closing basis on the M15 timeframe; among them, after the 95 mark was first touched at 12:30, only 1 M15 bar closed above it, and after the 92 mark was lost at 21:15, only 3 out of 11 bars closed back above it, with selling pressure persisting across both European and US sessions.

Supply-side headlines served as an important backdrop for the day’s decline. Middle East exports via the Strait of Hormuz recovered to more than 80% of their pre-war daily average level, significantly easing shipping bottlenecks previously constrained by the Iranian conflict; on the same day, separate reports noted that Trump supports an early-stage proposal to swap political prisoner releases for a softening of Russian sanctions, which, if progressed, could erode the risk premium associated with restricted Russian oil supply. Both pieces of news were published during the trading day, and expectations of marginally easing supply constraints formed an important background for WTI pulling back from high levels.

Technically, WTI closed below the D1 MA5 (95.685) on the day, remaining below the MA20 (97.096) in the medium term; the 89.000–89.046 zone below serves as key support where the 20-day low coincides with a round-number mark. Before reclaiming the MA5, bounces are better treated as pressure relief; if 89.000–89.046 is further lost on a closing basis, the next observation level lies near 78.000.

Gold（XAUUSD）

Gold (XAUUSD) probed lower before rebounding on the day, closing at 4,180.32, up 1.60% from the previous close of 4,114.34. In the Asian session at 01:00, it probed down to 4,113.41, nearing the previous day’s low of 4,110.83, before gradually stabilizing; in the US session at 20:45, it touched 4,185.23, breaking above the 4,150 mark intraday and holding firm above it on the M15 timeframe (36 bars closed above it after being reached).

Falling oil prices served as an important background for Gold’s rebound on the day. WTI’s sharp drop alleviated earlier inflation concerns driven by energy prices, cooling inflation expectations at the margin; under conditions where nominal interest rates do not rise further, upward pressure on real interest rates may ease, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold. At the same time, Williams stated on the day that there was no need to rush into action after the September rate hike; his dovish stance may also have capped expectations for further US Dollar strength, with both factors jointly forming the interest-rate and exchange-rate backdrop for Gold’s rebound off eight-week lows.

Technically, Gold closed below the D1 MA5 (4,228.39) on the day, while the medium-term moving average MA20 (4,326.80) continues to exert suppression above, meaning the rebound has not yet reversed the medium-term weak structure. Below, 4,110.83–4,113.41 serves as key support where the previous day’s low coincides with the day’s low; above, 4,250 is the nearest key round-number mark. Before reclaiming the MA5, the rebound is still best treated as pressure relief; if 4,110.83–4,113.41 is lost on a closing basis, the next observation level lies at 3,959.60.

NAS100

Nasdaq (NAS100) probed lower before rebounding on the day, closing at 30,431.0, up 0.41% from the previous close of 30,307.3. In the Asian session at 05:30, it probed down to 30,142.0, touching 30,494.0 in the US session at 13:30 before pulling back slightly, still holding above 30,200 at the close. Falling oil prices eased inflationary pressure, providing a marginal tailwind for valuations; however, the US 30-year Treasury yield rose to its highest level since 2002, with elevated long-end yields suppressing growth stock valuations, leaving both forces intertwined and leading to a slight gain for the Nasdaq rather than unilateral strength.

Technically, the Nasdaq closed below the D1 MA5 (30,482.34) on the day, but remained above the MA10 (30,179.70), leaving its short-term structure intact. Above, 30,494 is the day high, while 30,142 below is the day low, with the 30,200 zone acting as a level contested repeatedly intraday. If long-end yields continue to climb, rebound space for the Nasdaq may be limited; if oil prices remain weak and drive inflation expectations further down, it will favor valuation recovery.

EURUSD

The Euro (EURUSD) closed down 0.26% at 1.13405 on the day, marking its second consecutive session of losses. In the Asian session at 22:00, it tested up to 1.13738 before turning weak, probing down to 1.13113 in the US session at 16:45, and recovering slightly in late trading. Eurozone Economic Sentiment Index for September fell to 97.9, below expectations of 99.0, with both industrial and services sub-indices missing forecasts while consumer inflation expectations rose; the disconnect between growth and inflation weighed on the Euro, which, combined with broad US Dollar strength, kept the Euro weak on the day.

Technically, the Euro closed below the D1 MA5 (1.13725) on the day, with both the MA10 (1.14200) and MA20 (1.15101) situated above, leaving the short-term structure weak. Below, 1.13113 is the day low as well as a recent low, forming key support; above, 1.13738 is the day high. If 1.13113 is lost on a closing basis, the next observation level lies at the 1.13000 round-number mark.

GBPUSD

The British Pound (GBPUSD) closed down 0.17% at 1.32309 on the day. In the US session at 15:15, it probed down to 1.32016, refreshing recent lows, before recovering slightly in late trading. Reports after the close noted that the Pound fell to its lowest level since June, with BoE stance-maintaining members pushing back against arguments for further rate hikes, which can be monitored for future market moves.

Technically, the Pound closed below the D1 MA5 (1.32369) on the day, with both the MA10 (1.33027) and MA20 (1.34093) situated above, leaving the short-term structure weak. Below, 1.32016 is the day low, forming key support; above, 1.33000–1.33050 forms a resistance zone where a round-number mark coincides with the 10-day moving average. If 1.32016 is lost on a closing basis, the next observation level lies at 1.31500.

Outlook Focus

For WTI Crude Oil, focus on whether price can reclaim the MA5 (95.685) to judge if a rebound is valid, with 89.000–89.046 serving as key support below; for Spot Gold, focus on whether price can stand above the MA5 (4,228.39) to confirm a continued rebound, with 4,110.83–4,113.41 serving as key support below; for the Nasdaq, focus on whether price can hold above 30,200 and challenge the intraday high of 30,494; for the Euro, focus on low support at 1.13113 and resistance at 1.13738; for the British Pound, focus on low support at 1.32016 and resistance at 1.33000–1.33050.

Overview of Key Levels

Instrument	Direction	Near R1 / S1	Medium R2 / S2	Far R3 / S3
XAUUSD	Resistance	4250.00 Key round number	4383.34 Previous week high	4510.77 20-day high
XAUUSD	Support	4110.83–4113.41 Previous day low, day low	3959.60 60-day low	3750.00 Key round number
EURUSD	Resistance	1.14000 Round number	1.14500 Round number	1.14899–1.14952 75-day SMA, 25-day EMA, previous week high
EURUSD	支撑	1.13113–1.13120 Day low, 10-day low, Lower Bollinger Band	1.12500 Key round number	1.10500 Round number
NAS100	Resistance	30844.5 10-day high, 20-day high	31500.0 Round number	32000.0 Round number
NAS100	Support	30000.0 Key round number	29648.3 Previous week low	28206.3 Last month low
USOIL	Resistance	95.000–95.029 Key round number, 5-day EMA	101.000–101.038 Round number, previous week high	106.752 20-day high, 60-day high
USOIL	Support	89.000–89.046 Round number, 20-day low, 50-day SMA	78.000–78.043 Round number, 250-day SMA	70.922 60-day low
GBPUSD	Resistance	1.33000–1.33050 Round number, 10-day SMA, 10-day EMA	1.33997–1.34093 Round number, 20-day SMA, previous week high	1.35673 20-day high
GBPUSD	Support	1.31500 Round number	1.31000 Round number	1.28500 Round number

Resistance and support are each arranged from nearest to farthest: R1/S1 are the nearest, R3/S3 are the farthest.