Market Themes

During yesterday’s trading session, a weakening US dollar became the common thread running through all asset classes: the US Dollar Index recorded a drop of 0.56%, while gold and USD/JPY moved in opposite directions with a rise of 1.92% and a drop of 1.83%, respectively, forming exact mirror images. Meanwhile, commodity bulls gathered strength simultaneously, with US crude oil rising 1.16%. US initial jobless claims released during the day came in at 206K, lower than market expectations, with the previous reading revised to 204K—data that itself did not reverse dollar weakness, but rather tipped the scales of interest rate expectations further, pushing safe-haven sentiment to ferment in precious metals.

Gold rose 1.92%; USD/JPY fell 1.83%; Nasdaq rose 1.17%; US crude oil rose 1.16%; Dow Jones rose 1.08%.

On September 3, Gold (XAUUSD) closed up 84.4 points to report at 4,473.54 per ounce, a gain of 1.92%. During the Asian session at 23:30, it dipped to the 4,381.13 level before finding support, with buying interest gradually accumulating; subsequently, during the US session at 15:15, it touched 4,510.77, with the intraday volatility roughly at 115% of its 14-day average true range. The 4,450 mark was effectively reclaimed during the session and firmly stood above, and an attempt was made to challenge the 4,500 mark but failed to close above that level—the pull-back after surging high leaves the battle around this level unresolved. Short-term structure closed below the MA10 (4,520.32); medium-term closed above the MA20 (4,461.39), opening below it intraday and flipping back above it at the close, indicating that medium-term buying interest is still stepping in at low levels; long-term moving average MA200 (4,569.18) exerts resistance above. Key levels to watch: Resistance 4,550.00 (round number) | Support 4,395.68–4,400.00 (round number, 25-day SMA).

The energy market strengthened in tandem overnight, with US Crude Oil (USOIL) closing at 92.041, up 1.16%. During the European session at 08:00, it probed lower to the 89.880 level before stabilizing and rebounding, touching 93.442 at 10:30, with the early-session low remaining untested thereafter. The 90 mark was briefly lost during trading but quickly recovered, followed by a break above the 92 mark and standing firm above it, demonstrating strong control by the bulls. A intraday break above 93.000 failed to hold, leaving the breakout awaiting confirmation at the close; short-term structure remains relatively strong, with key focus on whether it can reclaim this level. Key levels to watch: Resistance 93.919–94.000 (round number, 60-day high) | Support 88.924–89.000 (round number, 5-day SMA).

The foreign exchange market formed a contrast with commodity trends, with USD/JPY (USDJPY) closing at 155.792, down 1.83%, weakening for the second consecutive day. Intraday, it spiked to 158.955 before falling back rapidly, hitting a low of 155.289 near the tail end, with the full-day volatility reaching 341% of its 14-day average true range, marking the widest single-day range in nearly 20 days. Short-term selling pressure is noticeable; before recovering lost ground, any bounce is expected to be capped. Key levels to watch: Resistance 157.000 (round number) | Support 155.000 (key round number).

The Nasdaq (NAS100) rose 339.8 points to close at 29,477.1, a gain of 1.17%. The intraday low occurred at 05:15, after which it moved higher step-by-step, touching the day’s high of 29,559.4 at the late session around 18:15. Immediate resistance 29,559.4 (day high); key resistance 29,740.1–29,768.3 (10-day high, Fib 38.2%); downside support 28,978.3–29,000.0 (round number, 75-day EMA).

The Dow Jones (DJ30) rose 574.0 points to close at 53,686.9, a gain of 1.08%. Intraday, it opened below the MA10 and MA20 and reclaimed both at the close, showing that buying interest provided solid support at lower levels. Immediate resistance 53,791.0 (day high); key resistance 54,268.7 (20-day high); downside support 53,160.5 (previous week low).

Key Levels

• XAUUSD —— Resistance: 4,550.00 (round number) / 4,696.81–4,700.00 (round number, 10-day high) / 4,850.00 (round number); Support: 4,395.68–4,400.00 (round number, 25-day SMA) / 4,229.66–4,232.35 (20-day low, 50-day SMA) / 3,942.97 (60-day low)
• USDJPY —— Resistance: 157.000 (round number) / 158.000–158.142 (round number, 200-day EMA) / 160.193 (previous week high, last month high); Support: 155.000 (key round number) / 154.000 (round number) / 151.000 (round number)
• NAS100 —— Resistance: 29,740.1–29,768.3 (10-day high, Fib 38.2%) / 30,265.7 (20-day high, last month high) / 30,722.3 (60-day high); Support: 28,978.3–29,000.0 (round number, 75-day EMA) / 28,889.8–28,913.9 (previous day low, 10-day low) / 28,206.3 (last month low)
• USOIL —— Resistance: 93.919–94.000 (round number, 60-day high) / 98.000 (round number) / 102.000 (round number); Support: 88.924–89.000 (round number, 5-day SMA) / 84.953–85.000 (key round number, 25-day EMA) / 80.127–80.137 (10-day low, 55-day SMA)
• DJ30 —— Resistance: 54,268.7 (20-day high) / 54,795.0 (60-day high, last month high) / 55,500.0 (round number); Support: 53,160.5 (previous week low) / 52,676.9–52,720.9 (previous day low, 10-day low) / 51,500.0 (round number)

Week-to-date, US crude oil has risen 9.84%, gold has gained 0.51%, Nasdaq is up slightly by 0.02%, and USD/JPY has fallen 2.65%. Gold’s trading range this week has been 4,282.51–4,510.77, with the current close situated in the upper area of the range. Looking at the medium-term structure, gold still stands above its 20-week moving average (4,371.45, roughly five months), while remaining above its 100-week moving average (roughly two years), indicating the medium-term trend has not been damaged.