Market Theme

Major assets diverged, with no single theme in charge. On the data front, USD Existing Home Sales printed 4.06M, above forecasts.

The dollar index was little changed; gold nudged up 0.20%; U.S. indices broadly lower (the Nasdaq 100 edged lower 0.42%); in Europe the DAX crept higher 0.22%, the FTSE 100 slipped modestly 0.36%; in Asia-Pacific the Hang Seng declined 1.63%, the Nikkei 225 edged higher 0.42%, the ASX 200 softened slightly 0.27%, the China A50 crept lower 0.62%; crude rose 1.61%.

Market Recap
Gold (XAUUSD) closed firmer on Tuesday, settling at 4,369.1, fractionally higher by 0.20% on the day, printing a fresh 10-day high along the way. The session lacked a single macro driver, leaving technicals in charge. Near term, the tape stays range-bound, waiting on a fresh catalyst. Initial resistance sits at 4,386.43 (the upper Bollinger band), with support eyed at 4,331.62 (the 5-day moving average); watch for a break of the range edges. On the daily chart, the RSI reads 67, neutral-to-firm, with momentum intact. Into the next session, JPY BoJ L Money Stock y/y is the cue to watch for direction in the yen. Overall, direction stays unresolved as the tape waits on macro guidance.

The Hang Seng (HK50) ground lower on Tuesday, settling at 25,523.5, softer by 1.63% on the day. Price action carries a risk-off undertone — a headwind for the index complex. Initial resistance sits at 25,711.30 (the 5-day moving average), with support eyed at 25,369.50 (10-day low). Near term, the downside rhythm is intact, with the moving averages still capping rallies; watch whether the 10-day low at 25,369.50 holds. On the daily chart, the RSI reads 60, neutral-to-firm, with momentum intact. Overall, the soft picture holds, and any stabilisation will need both volume and time to confirm, though support near the 10-day low at 25,369.50 can still spark a bounce.

U.S. crude (USOIL) extended its advance on Tuesday, settling at 83.375, higher by 1.61% on the day. The session lacked a single macro driver, leaving technicals in charge. Brent crude rose 1.44%, in the same direction. Near term, momentum favours buyers, with dips so far leaving the uptrend intact. Initial resistance sits at 85 (round-number handle), with support eyed at 83.086 (the 20-day moving average); watch whether the 85 handle gives way. On the daily chart, the RSI reads 58, neutral-to-firm, with momentum intact. Overall, buyers keep the initiative and the firmer tone can extend until a fresh macro driver lands, though upside stays capped until the 85 handle clears decisively.

Key Levels

XAUUSD — resistance 4,386.43 (the upper Bollinger band) / 4400 (round-number handle); support 4,331.62 (the 5-day moving average) / 4300 (round-number handle)

HK50 — resistance 25,711.30 (the 5-day moving average) / 25,775.45 (the 10-day moving average); support 25,369.50 (10-day low)

USOIL — resistance 85 (round-number handle) / 86.475 (10-day high); support 83.086 (the 20-day moving average) / 80.098 (the 10-day moving average)

Economic Calendar Recap & Preview

Today’s focus: JPY BoJ L Money Stock y/y at 08:50 JST (Japan)

Why it matters: high-impact release — volatility can pick up sharply around it

Market consensus: forecast 5.1%, prior 4.5%

What to watch: This release lands most directly on the yen; volatility around it can pick up sharply, and the direction has to wait for the print itself.

On the data front, USD Existing Home Sales printed 4.06M (prior 4.09M, forecast 4.00M), above forecasts; BRL CPI y/y printed 4.44% (prior 4.64%, forecast 4.89%), below forecasts; USD Existing Home Sales m/m printed -1.7% (prior -2.4%, forecast -0.6%), below forecasts. Looking to the next 24 hours (Wed 12 Aug 2026), the high-impact calendar carries JPY BoJ L Money Stock y/y at 08:50 JST (Japan) (forecast 5.1%, prior 4.5%) — likely to steer the yen near-term; USD CPI m/m at 08:30 EDT (U.S. Eastern) (forecast 0.2%, prior -0.4%); USD Core CPI m/m at 08:30 EDT (U.S. Eastern) (forecast 0.2%, prior 0.0%); USD CPI y/y at 08:30 EDT (U.S. Eastern) (forecast 2.7%, prior 3.5%).

Tick-volume data are not provided. Volatility can pick up quickly — please mind position sizing and risk management. This report is dated by its publication day (China time) and recaps the previous completed trading session. Server time is set to GMT+3 during U.S. Daylight Saving Time and GMT+2 during U.S. Standard Time.