Market Themes

September Non-Farm Payrolls added only 29k jobs, far below the expected 90k, with the previous two months revised down by a combined 60k, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. This initially weighed on nominal yields and the US Dollar, providing an initial boost to both risk assets and gold. However, yields subsequently reversed and moved higher, becoming the core variable behind cross-asset divergence on the day: the holding cost of non-yielding assets was raised, causing gold to spike and pull back from 4227.85 to close down at 4139.28; US equities maintained gains against the backdrop of absolute yield levels remaining low, with the Nasdaq closing at a record high.

Crude oil traded independently from the employment headline: G7 agreed to release 100 million barrels of crude oil and diesel stockpiles, with supply-side additions dominating, driving WTI to close down to 93.394.

After Non-Farm Payrolls fell significantly short of expectations, yields reversed upward intraday: Gold spiked and pulled back to close down at 4139.28; the Nasdaq closed up at 30825.5 to set a closing record, the S&P closed up at 7726.0, and the British Pound probed lower before recovering to close up at 1.3237; G7 reserve releases suppressed WTI, closing down at 93.394.

Spot Gold (XAUUSD)

Spot Gold (XAUUSD) closed down at 4139.28, falling 0.91% from the previous close of 4177.13, ending its prior winning streak. Gold prices traded lower in early Asian trading, spiked to 4227.85 during the European session boosted by weak employment data, but reversed and pulled back from highs as yields moved higher in the US session, touching a low of 4125.21 and closing near intraday lows. The 4200 round-number mark was touched intraday but failed to hold, pulling back below 4150 at the close.

Mechanistically, Non-Farm Payrolls falling significantly short of expectations initially weighed on nominal yields and the US Dollar, lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold and serving as the initial driver for the spike; however, yields subsequently reversed and moved higher, raising the holding cost of non-yielding assets and suppressing their valuation, which provides the core explanation for gold’s spike and pullback. On daily structure, gold still closed below the MA5 (4154.07) and noticeably below the MA10 (4231.94) and MA20 (4285.90), with short- and medium-term moving averages continuing to exert overhead resistance.

Outlook Focus: If yields extend their rise, a bounce above 4139 may face resistance at the MA10 (4231.94); 4110.83 below (10-day low, 20-day low) is key recent support, subject to confirmation on a closing basis.

NAS100

The Nasdaq (NAS100) closed up at 30825.5, rising 0.93% from the previous close of 30542.7, marking its 4th consecutive session of gains and setting a closing record. It probed down to 30537.7 during the Asian session, tested up to 31054.5 in the US session, briefly tested the 31000 mark intraday without holding, and pulled back late in the session while still closing above 30800.

Weak employment data weighed on yields and the US Dollar, with growth stocks—which carry the highest rate sensitivity—benefiting most noticeably, forming the core mechanism for the Nasdaq leading gains and setting a closing record. On daily structure, the Nasdaq closed above the MA5 (30520.94) and MA10 (30553.62), with short- and medium-term moving averages continuing to provide underlying support. Outlook Focus: The 31000 round-number mark is the first overhead resistance, requiring a close above to be valid; if yields extend their rise, upside room for the Nasdaq below 31000 may be limited.

S&P 500 Index (SP500)

The S&P 500 (SP500) closed up at 7726.0, rising 0.67% from the previous close of 7674.8, marking its 2nd consecutive session of gains. It probed down to 7673.5 in the Asian session, tested up to 7759.5 in the US session, and broke above and held firm over the 7700 mark intraday. The gain was smaller than the Nasdaq’s, reflecting its relatively lower sensitivity to interest rate expectations. On daily structure, the S&P closed above the MA10 (7716.26) and MA20 (7678.90).

Outlook Focus: 7790.7 (10-day high, 20-day high) is key overhead resistance, requiring a close above to be valid; 7655.7 (previous week low) serves as support below.

GBPUSD

The British Pound against the US Dollar (GBPUSD) closed up at 1.3237, rising 0.31% from the previous close of 1.31963. It probed down to 1.31807 at 01:30 in the Asian session, recovered to 1.32553 in the US session, and broke above and held firm over the 1.32 mark intraday. Weak employment data dampening October rate hike bets and a weaker US Dollar formed the primary background for the Pound’s drop-and-recovery. On daily structure, the Pound closed near the MA5 (1.32364), but remains below the MA10 (1.32591) and MA20 (1.33680).

Outlook Focus: The 1.32 mark serves as underlying support, and the MA10 (1.32591) acts as the first overhead resistance.

US Crude Oil (WTI / Symbol: USOIL)

US Crude Oil (WTI / Symbol: USOIL) closed down at 93.394, falling 1.92% from the previous close of 95.224. It spiked to 95.504 in the Asian session before turning weak, pulled back to 90.388 in the US session, and subsequently recovered part of its losses from lows to close above 93. The 94 round-number mark was surrendered intraday, while the 93 mark was reclaimed after being tested.

G7 agreeing to release 100 million barrels of crude oil and diesel stockpiles was the dominant supply-side news of the day, directly increasing available supply and suppressing front-end prices, explaining why WTI still closed lower against the backdrop of US equity strength. On daily structure, WTI closed below the MA5 (93.87), as well as below the MA10 (94.97) and MA20 (97.44), with short- and medium-term moving averages continuing to exert overhead resistance. Outlook Focus: 90.388 (day low, 10-day low) is key support below, subject to confirmation on a closing basis; before standing back above the MA5 (93.87), bounces are treated as corrective moves rather than a reversal.

Today, OPEC+ agreed to maintain November production targets unchanged; Yemen’s Houthis attacked Saudi Aramco facilities, and both Russia and Ukraine made statements regarding strikes on energy facilities—supply-side disruptions still require ongoing tracking.

Outlook Focus

Gold: If yields extend their rise, a bounce above 4139 may be capped at the MA10 (4231.94), with 4110.83 below acting as key support, subject to confirmation on a closing basis. Nasdaq: The 31000 mark requires a close above to be valid; if yields extend their rise, upside space may be limited. S&P: 7790.7 is key overhead resistance, with 7655.7 acting as support below. Pound: The 1.32 mark acts as support below, with the MA10 (1.32591) serving as the first overhead resistance.

WTI: 90.388 is key support below; before standing back above the MA5 (93.87), bounces are treated as corrective moves. Focus today: OPEC+ maintaining November output targets unchanged, Yemeni Houthi attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities, Russia-Ukraine statements on energy facility strikes, and US ISM Services PMI.

Overview of Key Levels

Instrument	Direction	Near R1 / S1	Medium R2 / S2	Far R3 / S3
XAUUSD	Resistance	4200.00 Round number	4300.00–4304.08 Round number, 55-day SMA, 50-day EMA	4510.77 Last month high
XAUUSD	Support	4050.00 Round number	3959.60 60-day low	3750.00 Key round number
GBPUSD	Resistance	1.33000 Round number	1.33978–1.34077 Round number, 10-day high, 25-day SMA, 250-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 55-day EMA	1.35673 20-day high, last month high
GBPUSD	Support	1.32000–1.32036 Round number, last month low, previous week low	1.31000 Round number	1.28500 Round number
NAS100	Resistance	31218.7 Upper Bollinger Band	32000.0 Round number	32500.0 Key round number
NAS100	Support	30500.0–30520.9 Round number, Fib 23.6%, 5-day SMA	29642.3–29648.3 10-day low, Fib 61.8%, 55-day EMA	28771.1 20-day low, last month low
USOIL	Resistance	96.000–96.045 Round number, previous day high, 25-day SMA	101.000–101.038 Round number, 10-day high	106.752 20-day high, 60-day high
USOIL	Support	90.388 Day low, 10-day low	86.518–86.600 100-day SMA, last month low	72.682 60-day low
SP500	Resistance	7785.9–7790.7 10-day high, 20-day high, Upper Bollinger Band	7900.0 Round number	8000.0 Key round number
SP500	Support	7649.6–7655.7 Fib 50.0%, 55-day SMA, 50-day EMA, previous week low	7511.9 20-day low, last month low	7400.0 Round number

Resistance and support are each arranged from nearest to farthest: R1/S1 are the nearest, R3/S3 are the farthest.