Market Themes

The US CB Consumer Confidence Index recorded 89.4, significantly pulling back from the revised previous value of 90.2% and far weaker than market expectations. We believe that weak consumer sentiment provided a soft macroeconomic backdrop for commodities, with oil prices reacting particularly violently, directly mirroring market concerns over economic momentum.

US Crude Oil fell 4.58%; Nasdaq rose 0.66%; Gold rose 0.19%; GBP rose 0.13%; EUR rose 0.09%.

On August 25, US Crude Oil (USOIL) closed at 81.565, plunging 4.58%. The intraday movement presented a classic rally-and-reversal pattern: in the Asian session at 02:00, it rallied to 86.360 before weakening, and in the US session at 20:15, it pulled back to 80.760. The 81 mark was lost and then regained intraday, but the 82 mark was lost during the day, and both the 83 and 84 marks were broken in succession. We believe that opening above MA10 (84.251) and MA20 (82.517) and closing below them formed a bearish intraday cross structure; the long-term moving average MA200 (78.237) still provides support below. Key resistance sits at 84.000–84.030 (round number, 10-day EMA); downside support lies at 78.973–79.000 (round number, 50-day SMA). Selling pressure came direct and prices gave up many positions; until taking them back, any rebound easily turns into relief.

Precious metals market also strengthened in tandem overnight, with Gold (XAUUSD) rising 8.7 pips, closing at 4,659.73 per ounce, up slightly by 0.19%. The intraday path was rallying first then falling yet still closing at high levels: in the Asian session at 00:30, it rallied to 4,696.81, and in the US session at 13:45, it pulled back to 4,605.32, but the 4,650 mark was lost and then regained intraday, showing buying support at lower levels still exists. Key resistance sits at 4,750.00 (major round number); downside support lies at 4,600.00 (round number). After rising above 4,680.93 intraday, it failed to hold firm, with a breakthrough yet to be confirmed by the close; short-term structure remains relatively strong, with key focus on whether it can reclaim this level. From a medium-term structural view, Gold is currently above its 20-week moving average (4,386.19, approximately five months) and remains above its 100-week moving average (approximately two years); the medium-term trend remains intact.

The three major US stock indices strengthened on the same day, with Nasdaq (NAS100) rising 191.2 points, closing at 29,230.9, up slightly by 0.66%. On the trend, although closing higher, it has not yet reclaimed MA5 (29,261.1) — the rebound awaits confirmation. Key resistance sits at 29,500.0–29,514.6 (round number, Fib 23.6%); downside support lies at 29,000.0 (round number). Neither bulls nor bears managed to bring anything decisive — our approach is to wait for a breakout rather than guess the direction.

Euro (EURUSD) closed at 1.16739, up slightly by 0.09%. Immediate resistance sits at 1.16791 (day high); key resistance at 1.17110 (10-day high, 20-day high); downside support lies at 1.16500–1.16548 (round number, previous day low).

British Pound (GBPUSD) closed at 1.36477, up slightly by 0.13%. Immediate resistance sits at 1.36542 (day high); key resistance at 1.36692–1.36750 (10-day high, 20-day high); downside support lies at 1.36000 (round number).

Key Levels

• XAUUSD —— Resistance: 4,750.00 (major round number) / 4,850.00 (round number) / 5,000.00 (major round number); Support: 4,600.00 (round number) / 4,500.00–4,502.90 (major round number, 10-day EMA) / 4,323.79–4,324.60 (21-day SMA, previous week low)
• GBPUSD —— Resistance: 1.36692–1.36750 (10-day high, 20-day high) / 1.37500 (major round number) / 1.38500 (round number); Support: 1.36000 (round number) / 1.35115–1.35188 (20-day SMA, 25-day EMA) / 1.32778 (20-day low)
• NAS100 —— Resistance: 29,500.0–29,514.6 (round number, Fib 23.6%) / 30,265.7 (10-day high, 20-day high) / 30,792.8 (60-day high); Support: 29,000.0 (round number) / 28,500.0 (round number) / 27,500.0 (major round number)
• USOIL —— Resistance: 84.000–84.030 (round number, 10-day EMA) / 88.321 (10-day high, 20-day high) / 93.919–94.000 (round number, last month high); Support: 78.973–79.000 (round number, 50-day SMA) / 74.423 (20-day low) / 67.409 (60-day low, last month low)
• EURUSD —— Resistance: 1.17110 (10-day high, 20-day high) / 1.17500 (major round number) / 1.18500 (round number); Support: 1.16500–1.16548 (round number, previous day low) / 1.15567–1.15632 (21-day SMA, 100-day EMA) / 1.13500–1.13528 (round number, last month low)

So far this week, Gold is up 1.01%, GBP is up slightly by 0.02%, Nasdaq is down 0.50%, and US Crude Oil is down 6.80%.

Gold’s trading range this week is 4,594.64 – 4,696.81, with the current close located in the middle area of the range.

Disclaimer: The above content represents general market information and data review only and does not constitute any investment advice, recommendation, or offer to buy or sell. CFDs and other leveraged products carry high risk and may lead to losses exceeding your initial investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results; please evaluate carefully according to your own circumstances.