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Dollar holds firm as yen softens and euro awaits GDP and Lagarde 

ทีม ADFX

Market Recap 

XAUUSD 
Gold (XAUUSD) traversed an 82.00 range on Thursday, moving 1.8% of the open and finishing marginally lower on the day. The session opened at 4545.98, printed the high at 4570.71 at 04:41, later fell to the low at 4488.71 at 16:39, and settled at 4542.62, down 3.36 points (-0.074%). Range compression versus higher-timeframe volatility was evident, with the day’s span at roughly 85% of the 14-day ATR (96.95). The close sat in the upper half of the session’s range and just below the open, reflecting a path of high-before-low through the day. Price action tested notable round numbers, briefly slipping under 4500 in the afternoon before closing back above it, while the early-session high cleared 4550 but stayed short of 4600. On the intraday backdrop, the 1-hour 20-period SMA at 4527.3 was reclaimed into the close, with settlement above that reference. On the daily timeframe, the RSI stood at 50.11, and the session low remained above the daily lower Bollinger Band at 4453.25. By the close, gold had retraced a significant portion of the intraday downside from the 16:39 trough, finishing 53.91 points above the low and 28.09 below the high. The overall session, running from 01:00 to 23:57 server time, left price little changed on a point and percentage basis while maintaining a range modestly below its recent daily average. 

USDJPY 
USDJPY set a fresh 5‑day and 10‑day high at 159.335 at 16:44 after establishing its session low at 158.763 at 00:00. It opened at 158.885 and settled at 158.905, a net gain of 0.02 (0.013%). The intraday range measured 0.572, equal to 0.36% of the open. Price advanced through the 159.00 figure on the run-up to the peak before easing back, and the close sat at 24.8% of the day’s range measured from the low, leaving it closer to the floor than the peak. Highs reached just beyond 159.30 while lows held above 158.70, with no interaction with the 160.00 handle; the peak finished 0.665 below that round level. The session thus traced an early dip at the outset, a steady climb into mid‑afternoon, and a late pullback that left the pair in the upper‑158s by the close. On the H4 backdrop, spot remained above the 50‑period simple moving average at 158.465 throughout, and H4 RSI(14) registered 59.61. By the end of trade, price was above that moving average but below the day’s high, while the open and close were separated by just 0.02 despite the 57‑pip excursion between extremes. The new multi‑session high at 159.335 marked the latest extension of the recent range, and the settlement near the lower quartile of the day’s range outlined a close closer to session lows than highs. 

EURUSD 
EURUSD saw a two-way session that ultimately finished little changed, closing at 1.16183, down 0.00025 or 0.022% from the 1.16208 open. Price first edged higher to the day’s peak at 1.16348 at 11:16 before reversing to a low of 1.15754 at 16:45, which marked both a five‑day and ten‑day trough. The intraday range spanned 0.00594 (59 pips), around the 14‑day daily ATR of 0.00564 (56 pips). From the afternoon low near 1.1575, the pair recovered into the close, ending in the upper portion of the day’s range, with the close sitting about 72% of the distance from low to high. Round levels featured, with price trading above 1.1630 at the morning high and sliding through 1.1600 mid‑session before finishing back above that figure. On the higher‑timeframe backdrop, the session low undercut the daily lower Bollinger Band at 1.15813, while the close returned above it, leaving the band upper edge at 1.18018 unchallenged. On the hourly chart, the pair settled above the 21‑EMA at 1.16109 by the bell. The day’s structure showed an early uptick, a mid‑afternoon downside extension to fresh multi‑day lows, and a late rebound that narrowed losses by the close. Overall, activity stayed concentrated near the lower half of the broader daily Bollinger envelope, and the session’s realized range was broadly in line with recent daily volatility as indicated by the 14‑day ATR. 

Economic Calendar Recap & Preview 

US labor-market data offered a modestly firmer signal as Initial Jobless Claims edged down to 209k from 211k, a touch above the 208k consensus. Looking ahead, the euro area prints GDP quarter over quarter at 06:00 server time, with the estimate pinned at 0.3 percent after 0.3 previously; a stronger-than-forecast reading can temper expectations for additional monetary easing. European Central Bank President Lagarde speaks at 08:30, an event that could color the growth and policy narrative heading into next week even with few immediate data points on the docket. A brief burst of volatility is possible around the GDP release, particularly in euro rates and FX if the outturn deviates from 0.3 percent. No other major releases are scheduled in this window, leaving the focus squarely on the growth print and any policy-relevant cues from Lagarde’s remarks. 

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