Market Themes

Dollar strength was the clearest common thread overnight, but commodities were not synchronized internally: the US Dollar Index rose 0.37%, Gold fell 1.17%, Euro fell 0.42%, and USD/JPY rose 0.55%; meanwhile, US Crude Oil rose 1.78%, moving in the opposite direction of Gold. This set of divergences illustrates that applying a single theme to all instruments does not hold up, and the respective price drivers for Gold and Crude Oil still need to be observed separately. The Sweden Consumer Price Index (CPI) MoM released during the day came in at -0.3%, lower than expected.

US Crude Oil rose 1.78%; Gold fell 1.17%; Nasdaq fell 0.64%; USD/JPY rose 0.55%; Euro fell 0.42%.

USOIL (US Crude Oil)

On September 14, US Crude Oil (USOIL) closed higher, settling at 101.961, up 1.78%. In the European session at 12:30, it spiked to 104.990 before softening, pulling back to 100.591 in the US session at 18:30. The 101 mark was lost and regained intraday, while the 102 mark was surrendered during the day. Intraday amplitude was approximately 108% of its 14-day average daily volatility. Short- and medium-term prices both sit above the MA5 (99.487) and MA20 (90.208); the long-term moving average MA100 (87.125) provides support underneath.

Key resistance sits at 104.990–105.000 (key round number, day high), 3.0% from current prices, requiring a close above to be valid; downside support lies at 99.000 (round number), 2.9% from current prices, with a loss on a closing basis taking precedent. Looking upward, standing firm above 104.990–105.000 (key round number, day high) is required before talking about opening up space; if 99.000 (round number) is further lost, the next observation level sits at 91.000–91.089 (round number, previous week low).

USDJPY (USD/JPY)

The foreign exchange market strengthened in tandem overnight as well, with USD/JPY (USDJPY) closing at 154.332, up slightly by 0.55%. In the Asian session at 00:00, it probed down to near 153.363 before stabilizing, touching 154.991 in the US session at 13:45. Intraday, it broke above the 154 mark and held firm above it. Intraday amplitude was approximately 115% of its 14-day average daily volatility. Short-term prices closed above the MA5 (153.945) (opening below and closing above it intraday); medium-term prices closed below the MA20 (157.373); the long-term moving average MA200 (158.419) exerts suppression above.

Key resistance sits at 156.000 (round number), 1.1% from current prices, requiring a close above to be valid; downside support lies at 152.874–153.000 (round number, 10-day low), 0.9% from current prices, with a loss on a closing basis taking precedent. The confirmation line lies at MA20 (157.373); before reclaiming it, a bounce-back is more like a correction than a trend reversal. If 152.874–153.000 (round number, 10-day low) is lost, weakness may extend toward the 151.000 (round number) level.

XAUUSD (Gold)

The precious metals market weakened on the same day, with Gold (XAUUSD) falling 50.9 points to close at 4,297.57 per ounce, down 1.17%. In the Asian session at 02:30, it spiked to 4,355.33 before softening, pulling back to 4,253.61 in the US session at 13:00, with the intraday high untested thereafter. The 4,300 mark was surrendered during the day, while an attempt to test the 4,350 mark failed to hold above.

Key resistance sits at 4,400.00–4,402.45 (round number, previous day high), 2.4% from current prices, requiring a close above to be valid; downside support lies at 4,200.00 (round number), 2.3% from current prices, with a loss on a closing basis taking precedent. Before reclaiming the MA100 (4,331.42), bounces are still treated as pressure relief; if 4,200.00 (round number) is further lost, the next observation level sits at 4,019.08 (last month low).

Other Asset Performance

NAS100 (Nasdaq)

The Nasdaq (NAS100) fell 187.0 points to close at 29,212.1, down slightly by 0.64%. Key resistance: 29,500.0–29,504.8 (round number, previous day high), 1.0% from current prices; downside support: 28,827.2 (day low, 10-day low), 1.3% from current prices.

EURUSD (Euro)

The Euro (EURUSD) closed at 1.15478, down slightly by 0.42%. Key resistance: 1.15978–1.16024 (round number, day high, 5-day SMA, 21-day EMA, 10-day EMA), 0.5% from current prices; downside support: 1.14998–1.15000 (key round number, last month low), 0.4% from current prices.

Overview of Key Levels

Instrument	Resistance R1	Resistance R2	Resistance R3	Support S1	Support S2	Support S3
XAUUSD	4400.00–4402.45 Round number, previous day high	4442.05–4442.95 25-day SMA, previous week high	4696.81–4700.00 Round number, 20-day high	4200.00 Round number	4019.08 Last month low	3942.97 60-day low
EURUSD	1.15978–1.16024 Round number, day high, 5-day SMA, 21-day EMA, 10-day EMA	1.16500–1.16537 Round number, 10-day high	1.17110 20-day high, 60-day high	1.14998–1.15000 Key round number, last month low	1.14500 Round number	1.13241 60-day low
NAS100	29500.0–29504.8 Round number, previous day high	29755.8–29761.4 10-day high, Fib 23.6%	30457.4 60-day high	28827.2 Day low, 10-day low	28206.3 Last month low	27500.0 Key round number
USOIL	104.990–105.000 Key round number, day high	110.000 Key round number	115.000 Key round number	99.000 Round number	91.000–91.089 Round number, previous week low	83.000–83.014 Round number, 75-day SMA
USDJPY	156.000 Round number	156.275 Previous week high	160.193 Last month high	152.874–153.000 Round number, 10-day low	151.000 Round number	148.000 Round number

Resistance and support are each arranged from nearest to farthest: R1/S1 are the nearest, R3/S3 are the farthest.

Week-to-date, US Crude Oil is up 2.01%, Euro is down 0.43%, Nasdaq is down 0.76%, and Gold is down 1.39%.

Gold’s trading range for the week is 4,253.61 – 4,355.33, with price action’s daily close situated near the midpoint of the range.

From a medium-term structural view, Gold is currently located below its 20-week moving average (4,333.30, approximately five months) while remaining above its 100-week moving average (approximately two years), with the medium-term structure under some pressure.

Looking ahead today, market focus turns first to the France Consumer Price Index (CPI) MoM—the core inflation reading that dictates rate path expectations.