Market Themes

As of yesterday’s US market close, dollar strength and internal direction divergence among commodities emerged simultaneously: the US Dollar Index closed up 0.30%, while Gold (XAUUSD) fell 1.89%, Silver (XAGUSD) tumbled 5.48%, and USD/JPY (USDJPY) rose 0.58%. This set of price action shows that dollar strength aligned with the co-directional weakening of precious metals and the yen, yet fails to explain the independent upward move in oil prices; therefore, a single theme should not be mechanically applied to all instruments.

The European Central Bank interest rate decision released during the day came in at 2.65%.

US Crude Oil rose 7.39%; Silver fell 5.48%; Gold fell 1.89%; Nasdaq fell 1.01%; USD/JPY rose 0.58%.

Precious Metals & Energy

Silver (XAGUSD) closed lower at 63.573 per ounce, a decline of 5.48%. In the Asian session at 06:00, it spiked to 67.939 before softening, pulling back to 63.477 in the US session at 20:15, with the 64 mark lost intraday. Full-day amplitude was equivalent to 175% of its 14-day average daily volatility, ranking at the 95th percentile over the past 20 days, signaling a concentrated release of selling pressure. Short-term prices closed below the MA5 (65.770) (opening above and closing below it intraday), medium-term prices closed above the MA50 (62.479), while the long-term moving average MA100 (67.022) exerts suppression above.

Key resistance: 65.000–65.024 (key round number, 55-day EMA), 2.2% from current prices, requiring a close above to be valid; downside support: 62.000 (round number), 2.5% from current prices, with a loss on a closing basis taking precedent. Before reclaiming the MA5 (65.770), bounces are still treated as pressure relief; if 62.000 (round number) is further lost, the next observation level sits at 58.000 (round number).

USOIL (US Crude Oil)

Energy markets strengthened in tandem overnight, with US Crude Oil (USOIL) closing at 103.999, surging 7.39%. In the Asian session at 06:15, it tested down to near 95.534 before stabilizing, touching 104.139 in the US session at 20:45. The 96 level was lost and regained intraday, while breaking above the 99 mark during the session and holding firm above it. Full-day amplitude was equivalent to 222% of its 14-day average daily volatility, ranking at the 100th percentile over the past 20 days.

Short- and medium-term prices both sit above the MA5 (95.954) and MA20 (88.462); the long-term moving average MA100 (86.989) provides support underneath. Key resistance: 106.000 (round number), 1.9% from current prices, requiring a close above to be valid; downside support: 102.000 (round number), 1.9% from current prices, with a loss on a closing basis taking precedent. Looking upward to 106.000 (round number), the structure will only improve after holding firm validly; once 102.000 (round number) is lost, weakness may extend toward the 94.966–95.000 zone (key round number, Fib 38.2%).

Other Asset Performance

NAS100 (Nasdaq)

Nasdaq (NAS100) fell 298.7 points to close at 29,151.6, a drop of 1.01%. Key resistance: 29,500.0–29,506.7 (round number, day high), 1.2% from current prices; downside support: 28,889.8–28,903.6 (20-day low, 10-day low), 0.9% from current prices.

USDJPY (USD/JPY)

USD/JPY (USDJPY) closed at 154.416, up slightly by 0.58%. Key resistance: 155.956–156.000 (round number, 10-day EMA), 1.0% from current prices; downside support: 152.874–153.000 (round number, previous day low, 10-day low, 20-day low, 60-day low), 0.9% from current prices.

Overview of Key Levels

Instrument	Resistance R1	Resistance R2	Resistance R3	Support S1	Support S2	Support S3
XAUUSD	4400.00–4403.03 Round number, 10-day SMA, 21-day EMA	4510.77 Previous week high	4696.81–4700.00 Round number, 20-day high	4245.92–4250.00 Key round number, 55-day SMA	4100.00 Round number	3942.97 60-day low
XAGUSD	65.000–65.024 Key round number, 55-day EMA	67.462 Previous week high	71.154 10-day high, 20-day high	62.000 Round number	58.000 Round number	54.766 60-day low
USDJPY	155.956–156.000 Round number, 10-day EMA	157.000 Round number	160.183–160.193 75-day SMA, last month high	152.874–153.000 Round number, previous day low, 10-day low, 20-day low, 60-day low	152.000 Round number	149.000 Round number
NAS100	29500.0–29506.7 Round number, day high	29674.1 Previous week high	30265.7 20-day high, last month high	28889.8–28903.6 20-day low, 10-day low	28206.3 Last month low	27495.7–27500.0 Key round number, 200-day EMA
USOIL	106.000 Round number	111.000 Round number	116.000 Round number	102.000 Round number	94.966–95.000 Key round number, Fib 38.2%	85.950–86.000 Round number, 55-day EMA

Resistance and support are each arranged from nearest to farthest: R1/S1 are the nearest, R3/S3 are the farthest.

Week-to-date, USD/JPY is down 1.14%, Nasdaq is down 1.50%, Gold is down 2.62%, and Silver is down 4.13%.

Gold’s trading range for the week is 4,311.19 – 4,442.95, with price action’s daily close situated in the lower region of that range.

Regarding Gold’s medium-term structure, current prices sit below the 20-week moving average (4,351.29, roughly five months) while remaining above the 100-week moving average (roughly two years), with the medium-term structure under some pressure.

Looking ahead today, market focus turns first to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) MoM—the core inflation reading that dictates rate path expectations.