{"id":5124,"date":"2025-09-24T12:39:39","date_gmt":"2025-09-24T02:39:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ad-fx.com\/pmi\/"},"modified":"2025-11-13T17:07:17","modified_gmt":"2025-11-13T06:07:17","slug":"pmi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.adfxzh.com\/zh-hans\/blog\/pmi\/","title":{"rendered":"PMI \u7684\u529b\u91cf\uff1a\u628a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u4ea4\u6613\u7b56\u7565"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4ec0\u4e48\u662fPMI\u6570\u636e\uff1f\u7406\u89e3PMI\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027 <\/h2>\n\n<p>PMI\u6570\u636e\u662f\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u8861\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5065\u5eb7\u548c\u5546\u4e1a\u4fe1\u5fc3\u6700\u53d7\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u6307\u6807\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u5b83\u901a\u5e38\u80fd\u591f\u4e3a\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u548c\u670d\u52a1\u4e1a\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u63d0\u4f9b\u65e9\u671f\u6d1e\u5bdf\uff0c\u5e2e\u52a9\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u3001\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u548c\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u8bc4\u4f30\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u3002 <\/p>\n\n<p>\u65e0\u8bba\u4f60\u662f\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u8fd8\u662f\u6295\u8d44\u8005\uff0c\u7406\u89e3PMI\u90fd\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u4f60\u9884\u6d4b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u52a8\u80fd\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u5e76\u76f8\u5e94\u8c03\u6574\u4f60\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u3002<\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4ec0\u4e48\u662fPMI\uff1f<\/h2>\n\n<p>PMI \u662f <em>\u91c7\u8d2d\u7ecf\u7406\u4eba\u6307\u6570 (Purchasing Managers\u2019 Index)<\/em> \u7684\u7f29\u5199\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u53cd\u6620\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u548c\u670d\u52a1\u4e1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u5173\u952e\u6307\u6807\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u91c7\u8d2d\u7ecf\u7406\u7684\u6708\u5ea6\u8c03\u67e5\u7f16\u5236\u800c\u6210\uff0c\u5b83\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u5728\u7279\u5b9a\u65f6\u671f\u5185\u5546\u4e1a\u72b6\u51b5\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u3002 <\/p>\n\n<p>PMI\u6700\u521d\u8bde\u751f\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u5982\u4eca\u5df2\u5728\u5305\u62ec\u6b27\u76df\u548c\u4e9a\u6d32\u5728\u5185\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4e2d\u5e7f\u6cdb\u4f7f\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">PMI\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u8ba1\u7b97\u7684\uff1f<\/h2>\n\n<p>\u867d\u7136\u4e0d\u540c\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u5730\u533a\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u53ef\u80fd\u7565\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u4f46PMI\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u7f16\u5236\u7ed3\u6784\u57fa\u672c\u7c7b\u4f3c\u3002\u4ee5\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f9b\u5e94\u7ba1\u7406\u534f\u4f1a (ISM) \u53d1\u5e03\u7684PMI\u662f\u5168\u7403\u6700\u5177\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u7684\u6307\u6807\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002 <\/p>\n\n<p>PMI\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u57fa\u4e8e\u8c03\u67e5\u95ee\u5377\u3002\u7f16\u5236\u65b9\u4f1a\u5411\u5404\u4e2a\u884c\u4e1a\uff08\u6db5\u76d6\u5404\u79cd\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\uff09\u5206\u53d1\u95ee\u5377\uff0c\u5e76\u6536\u96c6\u5173\u4e8e\u7279\u5b9a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7ec4\u6210\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u6570\u636e\u3002\u7136\u540e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u636e\u4f1a\u7528\u4e8e\u8ba1\u7b97\u5404\u4e2a\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u6269\u6563\u6307\u6570\u3002  <\/p>\n\n<p>\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u884c\u4e1a\u6307\u6570\u4f1a\u6839\u636e\u5176\u5728GDP\u4e2d\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u52a0\u6743\uff0c\u5f97\u51fa\u603b\u4f53PMI\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0cISM\u53d1\u5e03\u7684PMI\u4e3b\u8981\u5206\u4e3a\u4e24\u7c7b\uff1a<\/p>\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u5236\u9020\u4e1aPMI<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u670d\u52a1\u4e1aPMI<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n<p>\u867d\u7136\u6bcf\u4efd\u8c03\u67e5\u6db5\u76d6\u5927\u7ea610\u4e2a\u7ec4\u6210\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u4f46\u53ea\u6709\u90e8\u5206\u5173\u952e\u6307\u6807\u4f1a\u88ab\u7eb3\u5165PMI\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u4ee5\u4e0b\u662f\u4e24\u7c7bPMI\u6d89\u53ca\u7684\u884c\u4e1a\u548c\u8c03\u67e5\u7ec4\u4ef6\u6458\u8981\uff1a<\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>PMI\u7c7b\u578b<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>\u884c\u4e1a\u90e8\u95e8<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>\u8c03\u67e5\u7ec4\u4ef6<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u5236\u9020\u4e1aPMI<\/td><td>\u98df\u54c1\u4e0e\u70df\u8349\u3001\u7eba\u7ec7\u4e0e\u670d\u88c5\u3001\u4ea4\u901a\u8bbe\u5907\u3001\u539f\u6cb9\u4e0e\u80fd\u6e90\u3001\u7535\u6c14\u4e0e\u673a\u68b0\u8bbe\u5907\u3001\u91d1\u5c5e\u5236\u54c1\u7b49<\/td><td>\u65b0\u8ba2\u5355\u3001\u4ea7\u51fa\u3001\u5c31\u4e1a\u3001\u5e93\u5b58\u3001\u4f9b\u5e94\u5546\u4ea4\u8d27\u65f6\u95f4<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u670d\u52a1\u4e1aPMI<\/td><td>\u4ea4\u901a\u4e0e\u901a\u4fe1\u3001\u91d1\u878d\u670d\u52a1\u3001IT\u4e0e\u4fe1\u606f\u670d\u52a1\u3001\u9152\u5e97\u4e1a\u3001\u5176\u4ed6\u4e2a\u4eba\u53ca\u5546\u4e1a\u670d\u52a1<\/td><td>\u5546\u4e1a\u6d3b\u52a8\u3001\u65b0\u8ba2\u5355\u3001\u5c31\u4e1a\u3001\u4f9b\u5e94\u5546\u4ea4\u8d27\u65f6\u95f4<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5982\u4f55\u89e3\u8bfbPMI\uff1f<\/h2>\n\n<p>PMI\u6bcf\u6708\u7f16\u5236\u5e76\u53d1\u5e03\uff0c\u8ffd\u8e2a\u76f8\u5173\u884c\u4e1a\u4ea7\u80fd\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u5236\u9020\u4e1aPMI\u901a\u5e38\u5728\u6bcf\u6708\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5de5\u4f5c\u65e5\u53d1\u5e03\uff0c\u670d\u52a1\u4e1aPMI\u5219\u5728\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e2a\u5de5\u4f5c\u65e5\u53d1\u5e03\u3002 <\/p>\n\n<p>PMI\u7684\u6570\u503c\u4ecb\u4e8e0\u5230100\u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c50\u662f\u8363\u67af\u5206\u754c\u7ebf\uff1a<\/p>\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>PMI\u9ad8\u4e8e50\uff0c\u8868\u793a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6269\u5f20<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>PMI\u4f4e\u4e8e50\uff0c\u8868\u793a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6536\u7f29<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n<p>\u9664\u4e86PMI\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u8bfb\u6570\uff0c\u73af\u6bd4\u53d8\u5316\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e0e\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u4e5f\u5907\u53d7\u5173\u6ce8\uff1a<\/p>\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u5982\u679cPMI\u4f4e\u4e8e\u9884\u671f\u6216\u8f83\u4e0a\u6708\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u7740\u7ecf\u6d4e\u524d\u666f\u8d70\u5f31<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5982\u679cPMI\u9ad8\u4e8e\u9884\u671f\u6216\u663e\u793a\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6269\u5f20<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n<p>\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u901a\u5e38\u4f1a\u901a\u8fc7\u7ecf\u6d4e\u65e5\u5386\u6765\u8ddf\u8e2a\u4e0d\u540c\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u5730\u533a\u7684PMI\u53d1\u5e03\u60c5\u51b5\u3002<\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">PMI\u6570\u636e\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/h2>\n\n<p>\u867d\u7136PMI\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u5982\u975e\u519c\u5c31\u4e1a\u6570\u636e (NFP) \u6216\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4ef7\u683c\u6307\u6570 (CPI) \u90a3\u4e48\u5267\u70c8\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u4f9d\u7136\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u524d\u77bb\u6027\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u5177\u6709\u5f88\u5f3a\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6307\u6570\u9ad8\u5ea6\u76f8\u5173\u3002 <\/p>\n\n<p>\u592e\u884c\u3001\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u4f1a\u5bc6\u5207\u5173\u6ce8PMI\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u4ee5\u8bc4\u4f30\u7ecf\u6d4e\u52a8\u80fd\u548c\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u8d70\u5411\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u4f8b\u5982\uff1a<\/p>\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>2020\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u8513\u5ef6\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u670d\u52a1\u4e1aPMI\u8dcc\u783450\u5e76\u8fc5\u901f\u964d\u81f330\u4ee5\u4e0b\uff0c\u8868\u660e\u4e25\u91cd\u6536\u7f29\u3002\u8fd9\u4fc3\u4f7f\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u964d\u606f\u4ee5\u523a\u6fc0\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u3002 <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u968f\u540e\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u964d\u606f\u653f\u7b56\u5b9e\u65bd\uff0cPMI\u56de\u5347\u81f350\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u663e\u793a\u590d\u82cf\u8ff9\u8c61\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u80a1\u5e02\uff08\u5982\u6807\u666e500\u6307\u6570\uff09\u5f00\u59cb\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4fe1\u5fc3\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e50\u89c2\u60c5\u7eea\u7684\u6539\u5584\u3002 <\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48PMI\u5bf9\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\uff1f<\/h2>\n\n<p>\u867d\u7136PMI\u672a\u5fc5\u50cf\u975e\u519c\u5c31\u4e1a\u6216\u901a\u80c0\u6570\u636e\u90a3\u6837\u7acb\u5373\u5f15\u53d1\u5267\u70c8\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u5728\u5851\u9020\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u524d\u666f\u65b9\u9762\u626e\u6f14\u7740\u5173\u952e\u89d2\u8272\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6216\u8f6c\u578b\u65f6\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>PMI\u6570\u636e\u5e2e\u52a9\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u6bd4\u8bb8\u591a\u6ede\u540e\u6307\u6807\u66f4\u65e9\u53d1\u73b0\u5546\u4e1a\u5468\u671f\u7684\u62d0\u70b9\u3002 <\/p>\n\n<ul 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