{"id":5412,"date":"2025-07-15T18:14:00","date_gmt":"2025-07-15T08:14:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ad-fx.com\/%e9%9d%9e%e5%86%9c%e5%b0%b1%e4%b8%9a%e6%8a%a5%e5%91%8a%ef%bc%9a%e4%b8%ba%e4%bd%95%e9%87%8d%e8%a6%81%e4%bb%a5%e5%8f%8a%e5%a6%82%e4%bd%95%e4%ba%a4%e6%98%93\/"},"modified":"2026-01-14T13:40:38","modified_gmt":"2026-01-14T02:40:38","slug":"understanding-non-farm-payrolls-nfp-why-it-matters-and-how-to-trade-it","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.adfxzh.com\/zh-hans\/blog\/understanding-non-farm-payrolls-nfp-why-it-matters-and-how-to-trade-it\/","title":{"rendered":"\u975e\u519c\u5c31\u4e1a\u62a5\u544a\uff1a\u4e3a\u4f55\u91cd\u8981\u4ee5\u53ca\u5982\u4f55\u4ea4\u6613"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\u7f8e\u56fd\u975e\u519c\u5c31\u4e1a\uff08NFP\uff09\u62a5\u544a\u662f\u5168\u7403\u5e02\u573a\u6700\u53d7\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6307\u6807\u4e4b\u4e00\u2014\u2014\u5c24\u5176\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5916\u6c47\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u800c\u8a00\u3002\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b21\u516c\u5e03\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u5728\u4e3b\u8981\u8d27\u5e01\u5bf9\u3001\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u548c\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\u5f15\u53d1\u663e\u8457\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002\u867d\u7136\u8bb8\u591a\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5c06\u5176\u89c6\u4e3a\u9ad8\u673a\u9047\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u4f46\u82e5\u5728\u4e0d\u4e86\u89e3\u5176\u80cc\u540e\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u8fdb\u884c\u975e\u519c\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4f7f\u81ea\u5df1\u66b4\u9732\u5728\u4e0d\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u4e4b\u4e2d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u672c\u6587\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u89e3\u91ca\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u975e\u519c\u5c31\u4e1a\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u5b83\u4e3a\u4f55\u5bf9\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5982\u4f55\u4ee5\u66f4\u5177\u4fe1\u606f\u548c\u6218\u7565\u6027\u7684\u601d\u7ef4\u65b9\u5f0f\u6765\u5e94\u5bf9\u975e\u519c\u4ea4\u6613\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u975e\u519c\u5c31\u4e1a\uff08NFP\uff09\u62a5\u544a\uff1f<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u975e\u519c\u5c31\u4e1a\u62a5\u544a\uff08\u901a\u5e38\u7b80\u79f0\u4e3a NFP\uff09\u7531\u7f8e\u56fd\u52b3\u5de5\u7edf\u8ba1\u5c40\u6bcf\u6708\u53d1\u5e03\u3002\u5b83\u8861\u91cf\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u5c31\u4e1a\u51c0\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u5305\u62ec\u519c\u573a\u5de5\u4eba\u3001\u79c1\u4eba\u5bb6\u5ead\u96c7\u5458\u3001\u73b0\u5f79\u519b\u4eba\u548c\u975e\u8425\u5229\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5de5\u4f5c\u4eba\u5458\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8986\u76d6\u4e86\u5927\u7ea6 80% \u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\uff0cNFP \u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u8861\u91cf\u7f8e\u56fd\u6574\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5065\u5eb7\u72b6\u51b5\u7684\u5173\u952e\u6307\u6807\u3002\u5176\u7ed3\u679c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f71\u54cd\u4ece\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u9884\u671f\u5230\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u77ed\u671f\u8d70\u5411\uff0c\u518d\u5230\u5168\u7403\u98ce\u9669\u60c5\u7eea\u7684\u65b9\u65b9\u9762\u9762\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>NFP \u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u975e\u519c\u5c31\u4e1a\uff08Non-Farm Employment\uff09 = \u5360\u7f8e\u56fd GDP \u7684 50%<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\uff08Fed\uff09\u7684\u9996\u8981\u76ee\u6807 = \u6700\u5927\u5316\u5c31\u4e1a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u975e\u519c\u5bf9\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5916\u6c47\u5e02\u573a\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u975e\u519c\u62a5\u544a\u662f\u6ce2\u52a8\u6027\u7684\u5173\u952e\u9a71\u52a8\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u60c5\u7eea\u548c\u5229\u7387\u9884\u671f\u3002\u5176\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u4e3b\u8981\u4f53\u73b0\u5728\u4e24\u4e2a\u6838\u5fc3\u65b9\u9762\uff1a <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><em>1. \u5c31\u4e1a\u63a8\u52a8\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f<\/em><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5f3a\u52b2\u7684\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u652f\u6491\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u652f\u51fa\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd GDP \u7684\u652f\u67f1\u3002\u5f53\u5c31\u4e1a\u521b\u9020\u7a33\u5065\u65f6\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u53cd\u6620\u51fa\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5177\u6709\u97e7\u6027\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u5728\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u65f6\u671f\u4e5f\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u5c31\u4e1a\u589e\u957f\u75b2\u5f31\u5219\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653e\u7f13\u7684\u65e9\u671f\u9884\u8b66\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><em>2. \u975e\u519c\u4e0e\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u51b3\u7b56<\/em><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u53cc\u91cd\u4f7f\u547d\u662f\u4fdd\u6301\u7269\u4ef7\u7a33\u5b9a\u548c\u6700\u5927\u5c31\u4e1a\u3002\u968f\u7740 2024 \u5e74\u901a\u80c0\u9010\u6b65\u7f13\u89e3\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5173\u6ce8\u70b9\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u4ee5\u5bfb\u627e\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b65\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u7ebf\u7d22\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u597d\u4e8e\u9884\u671f<\/strong>\u7684\u975e\u519c\u6570\u636e\u53ef\u80fd\u8868\u660e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6709\u97e7\u6027\uff0c\u964d\u4f4e\u964d\u606f\u7684\u7d27\u8feb\u6027\uff0c\u5e76\u652f\u6491\u7f8e\u5143\u8d70\u5f3a\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u5dee\u4e8e\u9884\u671f\u7684<\/strong>\u975e\u519c\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5982\u679c\u4f34\u968f\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u6216\u6570\u636e\u4e0b\u4fee\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5f15\u53d1\u66f4\u65e9\u964d\u606f\u7684\u9884\u671f\u2014\u2014\u901a\u5e38\u5bf9\u7f8e\u5143\u4e0d\u5229\uff0c\u4f46\u5bf9\u9ec4\u91d1\u548c\u80a1\u7968\u7b49\u98ce\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7\u6709\u652f\u6491\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u4ea4\u6613\u975e\u519c\uff1a\u6218\u7565\u6027\u65b9\u6cd5<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u867d\u7136\u975e\u519c\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u9ad8\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u5176\u5468\u56f4\u8fdb\u884c\u6210\u529f\u4ea4\u6613\u9700\u8981\u7684\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u5bf9\u5934\u6761\u6570\u5b57\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u3002\u4ee5\u4e0b\u662f\u4e00\u4e9b\u5173\u952e\u7b56\u7565\u548c\u539f\u5219\uff1a <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><em>1. \u7406\u89e3\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u975e\u519c\u62a5\u544a<\/em><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u53ea\u5173\u6ce8\u5c31\u4e1a\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5934\u6761\u6570\u636e\u2014\u2014\u4f46\u8fd9\u53ea\u662f\u6545\u4e8b\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u806a\u660e\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u4f1a\u8003\u8651<em>\u6574\u4e2a<\/em>\u5c31\u4e1a\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\uff1a <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\uff1a<\/strong>\u5c31\u4e1a\u521b\u9020\u4e0b\u964d\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u88ab\u66f4\u4f4e\u7684\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u62b5\u6d88\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u5e73\u5747\u65f6\u85aa\uff1a<\/strong>\u53cd\u6620\u5de5\u8d44\u901a\u80c0\u3002\u5de5\u8d44\u4e0a\u6da8\u53ef\u80fd\u63a8\u52a8\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u63a8\u8fdf\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u63d0\u632f\u7f8e\u5143\u3002 <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u52b3\u52a8\u53c2\u4e0e\u7387\uff1a<\/strong>\u663e\u793a\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u4eba\u79ef\u6781\u5bfb\u627e\u5de5\u4f5c\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u662f\u8861\u91cf\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u5f3a\u5f31\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ec6\u5fae\u4f46\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><em>2. \u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u6570\u636e\u672c\u8eab<\/em><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5e02\u573a\u53cd\u5e94\u4e0d\u4ec5\u7531\u5b9e\u9645\u6570\u636e\u51b3\u5b9a\uff0c\u8fd8\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u6570\u636e\u4e0e\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u201c\u5dee\u4e8e\u9884\u671f\u201d\u7684\u975e\u519c\u5e76\u4e0d\u603b\u662f\u5bf9\u7f8e\u5143\u5229\u7a7a\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5e02\u573a\u5df2\u7ecf\u6d88\u5316\u4e86\u66f4\u5dee\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u201c\u597d\u4e8e\u9884\u671f\u201d\u7684\u6570\u636e\u53ef\u80fd\u5f71\u54cd\u6709\u9650\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5e02\u573a\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u65e0\u8bba\u5982\u4f55\u90fd\u4f1a\u4fdd\u6301\u9e3d\u6d3e\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><em>3. \u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u9884\u671f\u51b3\u5b9a\u5f71\u54cd\u529b<\/em><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u975e\u519c\u516c\u5e03\u540e\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u6ce2\u52a8\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u6570\u636e\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u5f3a\u5f31\uff0c\u8fd8\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u5f53\u65f6\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u9884\u671f\u3002\u5f53\u5e02\u573a\u76f8\u4fe1\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52a8\u3001\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u8c03\u6574\u5229\u7387\u65f6\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u975e\u519c\u5f3a\u52b2\u6216\u75b2\u5f31\uff0c\u5bf9\u7f8e\u5143\u6216\u7f8e\u80a1\u6307\u6570\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u9650\u3002  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u5728\u653f\u7b56\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u65f6\u671f\u2014\u2014\u4f8b\u5982\u901a\u80c0\u56de\u843d\u6216\u8870\u9000\u62c5\u5fe7\u5347\u6e29\u65f6\u2014\u2014\u540c\u6837\u7684\u975e\u519c\u6570\u636e\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u53d1\u5267\u70c8\u4e14\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u7406\u89e3\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u80cc\u666f\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u60c5\u7eea\u5728\u975e\u519c\u516c\u5e03\u524d\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u8981\u95ee\u81ea\u5df1\uff1a <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul 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