Market Themes

The tape prior to yesterday’s close presented an intriguing, split picture: Gold (XAUUSD) closed down 0.56%, yet the Nasdaq (NAS100) rose 0.28%, with risk appetite clearly taking the upper hand. This stands in sharp contrast to the «US dollar strength suppresses» pattern on September 4, indicating that the main line has shifted. We tend to observe for another day to confirm its continuity before making a call. Meanwhile, Gold and US Crude Oil moved in opposite directions—Gold down 0.56%, US Crude Oil up 1.42%—showing that the internal driving logic within commodities is not unified, which cautions us against mechanically applying a single theme to all instruments. The US Dollar Index weakened 0.30%, providing a tailwind environment for the overall market, but the internal divergence within commodities demonstrates that the core of this wave of volatility is not a simple inverse dollar trade.

US Crude Oil rose 1.42%; USD/JPY fell 1.21%; Gold fell 0.56%; Nasdaq rose 0.28%; Silver fell 0.04%.

On September 7, USD/JPY (USDJPY) closed at 154.343, down 1.21%, recording a single-day decline rarely seen recently. In the Asian session at 22:30, it spiked to 156.275 before losing momentum and turning weak, pulling back to 154.050 in the European session at 08:30. The 155 mark was lost intraday; although an attempt was made to test the 156 mark during trading, it failed to hold above, with the bullish counteroffensive halting in front of the round number. Full-day amplitude reached 178% of its 14-day average daily volatility, ranking at the 95th percentile of the past 20 days, underscoring the intensity of the long-short battle—such severe intraday swings typically appear at critical inflection points of trend acceleration or reversal. The short-to-medium-term moving average system has displayed a bearish alignment—with both MA5 (157.044) and MA20 (158.733) exerting overhead pressure, while the long-term moving average MA200 (158.492) likewise constitutes resistance. The pattern of all three moving averages pressing down in the same direction leaves any rebound facing selling pressure from layers of trapped overhead supply. Key resistance sits at 155.000 (key round number), 0.4% away from current prices, requiring a closing stand above to be considered a valid breakout; downside support lies at 153.000 (round number), 0.9% away from current prices, subject to a closing loss to be confirmed. The MA5 (157.044) can be viewed as the watershed of this leg of decline; if prices cannot reclaim this line, talking about a reversal remains premature; once 153.000 (round number) is lost, the next position to watch closely will shift down to 152.000 (round number), at which point Yen bulls may further eye the 149.000 (round number) level.

Precious metals markets weakened in tandem overnight, with Gold (XAUUSD) closing at 4,406.20 per ounce, down 24.9 points or 0.56%. In the Asian session at 22:45, it surged to 4,435.16 before turning weak, pulling back to 4,381.13 in the European session at 11:30; intraday, it briefly fell through the 4,400 mark but ultimately reclaimed it, indicating buying interest stepping in around this level—such a move of dipping lower and quickly pulling back often implies real-money demand below waiting to enter. Full-day amplitude was only 48% of its 14-day average daily volatility, ranking at the 0th percentile of the past 20 days; the narrow trading range reflects that market participants are still on the sidelines, with neither bulls nor bears willing to increase bets before the direction becomes clear. Short-term closed above MA5 (4,405.73), while medium-term remains constrained below MA20 (4,466.71), with the long-term moving average MA100 (4,349.59) providing support below; prices are sandwiched between short-term and medium-term moving averages, sitting in a classic decision zone. Key resistance sits at 4,510.77 (previous week high), 2.4% away from current prices, requiring a closing stand above to be valid; downside support lies at 4,282.51 (10-day low, 20-day low), 2.8% away from current prices, subject to a closing loss to be confirmed. The MA20 (4,466.71) is the confirmation line; before reclaiming it, any bounce-back is more likely to be interpreted as a technical correction rather than a trend reversal. If 4,282.51 (10-day low, 20-day low) is lost, the weak structure may extend toward the 4,247.14–4,250.00 zone (key round number, 50-day SMA). Notably, week-to-date, Gold remains above its 20-week moving average (4,351.29, approximately five months), and the medium-term structure has not been damaged by the past two days of pullbacks.

Energy markets strengthened on the same day, with US Crude Oil (USOIL) closing at 92.888, up 1.42%. In the European session at 08:15, it quickly stabilized after testing down to near 91.089, and in the US session at 15:00, it touched up to 93.513, with the early-session low remaining untested thereafter, demonstrating solid underlying support. The 92 mark was lost and regained intraday; although an attempt to test the 93 mark failed to hold above, the closing position remained in the upper portion of the intraday range, and the day’s high of 93.513 refreshed recent 20-day highs, illustrating bullish control. Key resistance sits at 95.000 (key round number), 2.3% away from current prices, requiring a closing stand above to be valid; downside support lies at 91.000–91.091 (round number, day low, 5-day EMA), 2.0% away from current prices, subject to a closing loss to be confirmed. Looking upward toward 95.000 (key round number), only after effectively standing firm will the overall structure truly improve, at which point upside space may open up to 99.000 (round number); once 91.000–91.091 (round number, day low, etc.) is lost, weakness may extend toward the 84.498–84.566 zone (55-day EMA, 50-day EMA). The divergent paths between Crude Oil and Gold reflect current internal division within commodity markets—capital has not fled safe-haven assets in unison, but is rather reallocating across different sectors.

Other Asset Performance

Silver (XAGUSD) closed at 66.156 per ounce, down slightly by 0.04%, closing nearly flat after probing low and recovering intraday. Silver’s resilience was noticeably stronger than Gold’s, with its decline less than one-tenth that of Gold, and its closing position sitting at the 57th percentile of its intraday range, showing a more active buying willingness below. Key resistance sits at 68.000 (round number), 2.8% away from current prices; downside support lies at 63.299 (10-day low, previous week low), 4.3% away from current prices.

The Nasdaq (NAS100) closed at 29,592.1, up 84.0 points or 0.28%, with consecutive bullish candles showing that the bullish rhythm is continuing. However, it is worth noting that the Nasdaq’s day high of 29,671.8 did not touch the 5-day high of 29,674.1, showing slightly waning upward momentum, and its closing position sat at only the 47th percentile of its intraday range after pulling back late in the session. Key resistance sits at 30,000.0 (key round number), 1.4% away from current prices; downside support lies at 29,364.6–29,393.6 (5-day SMA, 10-day SMA), 0.7% away from current prices.

Key Levels

• XAUUSD —— Resistance: 4,510.77 (previous week high) / 4,696.81–4,700.00 (round number, 10-day high) / 4,750.00 (key round number); Support: 4,282.51 (10-day low, 20-day low) / 4,247.14–4,250.00 (key round number, 50-day SMA) / 3,942.97 (60-day low)
• XAGUSD —— Resistance: 68.000 (round number) / 71.154 (10-day high, 20-day high) / 75.000 (key round number); Support: 63.299 (10-day low, previous week low) / 62.557 (20-day low) / 54.766 (60-day low)
• USDJPY —— Resistance: 155.000 (key round number) / 157.000–157.044 (round number, 5-day SMA) / 160.193–160.346 (50-day SMA, last month high); Support: 153.000 (round number) / 152.000 (round number) / 149.000 (round number)
• NAS100 —— Resistance: 30,000.0 (key round number) / 30,265.7 (20-day high, last month high) / 30,722.3 (60-day high); Support: 29,364.6–29,393.6 (5-day SMA, 10-day SMA) / 28,889.8–28,910.4 (20-day low, 10-day low, lower Bollinger Band) / 28,206.3 (last month low)
• USOIL —— Resistance: 95.000 (key round number) / 99.000 (round number) / 103.000 (round number); Support: 91.000–91.091 (round number, day low, 5-day EMA) / 84.498–84.566 (55-day EMA, 50-day EMA) / 80.127 (10-day low, 20-day low)

Week-to-date, Silver is up 0.29%, Nasdaq is up 0.26%, Gold is down 0.31%, and USD/JPY is down 1.61%. Gold’s trading range this week is 4,381.13–4,435.16, with the current close located in the upper area of the range. From a medium-term structural view, Gold is currently located above its 20-week moving average (4,351.29, approximately five months) and remains above its 100-week moving average (approximately two years), with the medium-term trend not yet damaged. Looking ahead at market prospects, we believe the tape will contest around two main threads: first, whether USD/JPY can hold 153.000 (round number)—if lost, dollar weakness will be further confirmed, providing support for Gold and the Nasdaq; second, whether US Crude Oil can effectively stand firm above 95.000 (key round number)—if broken out, the overall commodity valuation center is expected to shift higher, at which point Gold’s pullback may be viewed as an unwarranted sell-off rather than a trend change.