Market Themes

Silver led the decline among major asset classes. During the session, the U.S. non-farm payrolls came in at 162K, higher than expected (with the previous figure revised to 21K). Although the data release did not trigger major waves, the synchronized pullback in precious metals and energy, combined with the inverse rally in USD/JPY, suggests that the market is recalibrating its risk appetite after processing the data—the employment numbers were not bad enough to trigger safe-haven demand, yet not strong enough to support commodity demand expectations. Capital chose to scale back exposure rather than chase direction.

Silver fell 1.17%; Gold fell 0.95%; the Dow Jones fell 0.77%; U.S. Crude Oil fell 0.50%; USD/JPY rose 0.28%.

On September 4, Silver (XAGUSD) closed at 66.183 per ounce, down 1.17%. It surged to 67.189 during early Asian trading before selling pressure gradually built up, reaching an intraday low of 64.734 in the late New York afternoon, followed by a slight rebound into the close. The 66 level was lost and regained during the session, while the 67 level was surrendered during the day. In the short term, it closed above the MA5 (65.816); in the medium term, it closed below the MA20 (66.408) (opening above it and closing below it during the day); the long-term moving average MA100 (67.491) poses overhead resistance. Key resistance is at 68.000 (round number mark); lower support is at 64.000 (round number mark). Short-term initiative remains with the sellers. Until moving averages are reclaimed, we view bounces as pressure relief.

The energy market also weakened in tandem overnight, with U.S. Crude Oil (USOIL) closing at 91.583, down slightly by 0.50%. After pushing to 92.453 in early Asian trading, it failed to hold ground and dipped to 89.012 in the late New York afternoon before recovering part of its losses into the close. The 91 level was lost and regained during intraday action, while the 92 level was surrendered during the day. Key resistance lies at 93.919–94.000 (round number mark, 60-day high); lower support lies at 89.000–89.012 (round number mark, intraday low). As long as medium-term moving averages remain beneath our feet, we prefer to treat current back-and-forth price action as a pause within an uptrend, with pullbacks remaining opportunities to position.

The precious metals market weakened on the same day, with Gold (XAUUSD) dropping 42.4 points to close at 4,431.11 per ounce, down slightly by 0.95%. Key resistance lies at 4500.00–4502.98 (major round number mark, 10-day SMA); lower support lies at 4350.00–4353.73 (round number mark, 100-day SMA). Short-term initiative remains with the sellers. Until moving averages are reclaimed, we view bounces as pressure relief.

USD/JPY (USDJPY) closed at 156.236, up slightly by 0.28%. Immediate resistance is at 156.747 (intraday high); key resistance is at 157.000 (round number mark); lower support is at 155.218–155.289 (previous day’s low, intraday low, 60-day low, last month’s low).

The Dow Jones (DJ30) fell 412.0 points to close at 53,274.9, down slightly by 0.77%. Immediate resistance is at 53,746.9 (intraday high); key resistance is at 53,834.0 (10-day high, previous week’s high); lower support is at 52,676.9–52,687.5 (10-day low, 20-day low, last month’s low).

Key Levels

• XAUUSD —— Resistance: 4500.00–4502.98 (Major round number mark, 10-day SMA) / 4696.81–4700.00 (Round number mark, 10-day high) / 4800.00 (Round number mark); Support: 4350.00–4353.73 (Round number mark, 100-day SMA) / 4282.51 (10-day low, 20-day low) / 3942.97 (60-day low)
• XAGUSD —— Resistance: 68.000 (Round number mark) / 71.154 (10-day high, 20-day high) / 75.000 (Major round number mark); Support: 64.000 (Round number mark) / 62.557 (20-day low) / 54.766 (60-day low)
• USDJPY —— Resistance: 157.000 (Round number mark) / 158.923–159.000 (Round number mark, previous day’s high, 21-day SMA, 21-day EMA) / 160.193 (Previous week’s high, last month’s high); Support: 155.218–155.289 (Previous day’s low, intraday low, 60-day low, last month’s low) / 154.000 (Round number mark) / 151.000 (Round number mark)
• DJ30 —— Resistance: 53834.0 (10-day high, previous week’s high) / 54268.7 (20-day high) / 54795.0 (60-day high, last month’s high); Support: 52676.9–52687.5 (10-day low, 20-day low, last month’s low) / 52000.0 (Round number mark) / 51399.5 (60-day low)
• USOIL —— Resistance: 93.919–94.000 (Round number mark, 60-day high) / 98.000 (Round number mark) / 101.000 (Round number mark); Support: 89.000–89.012 (Round number mark, intraday low) / 84.000–84.080 (Round number mark, 75-day EMA) / 80.127 (10-day low, previous week’s low)

Reviewing last week’s market performance, Silver fell 0.14%, the Dow Jones fell 0.47%, Gold fell 0.57%, and USD/JPY fell 2.46%. Gold’s trading range for the week was 4,282.51 – 4,510.77, with the current close located near the midpoint of the range. From a medium-term structural perspective, Gold currently sits above its 20-week moving average (4,351.29, roughly five months) and remains above its 100-week moving average (roughly two years), indicating that the medium-term trend has not been damaged.