Market Themes

Yesterday up until the US market close, dollar strength emerged as the main line of suppression across the board: the US Dollar Index rose 0.26%, Gold fell 2.69%, Silver fell 3.67%, and the British Pound fell 0.24%, forming a distinct shift from the “dollar weakness boosts” pattern on August 31. We tend to observe for another day before confirming its continuity, as internal drivers among commodities are not unified—Gold and US Crude Oil moved in opposite directions (Gold down 2.69%, US Crude Oil up 4.96%), so a single theme should not be applied to all instruments. Intraday, the US ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid came in at 71.1, higher than expected; input cost price signals were on the hotter side, potentially providing extra support for dollar strength.

US Crude Oil rose 4.96%; Silver fell 3.67%; Gold fell 2.69%; Nasdaq fell 1.28%; British Pound fell 0.24%.

On September 1, US Crude Oil (USOIL) closed higher, reporting at 91.003, surging 4.96%. In the Asian session at 22:00, it stabilized after testing down to near 86.518, and in the US session at 20:00, it touched up to 91.313. Intraday, it broke above three key levels in succession—87, 88, and 89—finally standing above the 90 major round number and closing above it, with the bullish offensive accomplished in one go. Full-day amplitude was equivalent to 158% of its 14-day average daily volatility, ranking at the 90th percentile of the past 20 days, with volatility intensity expanding significantly. Short- and medium-term moving averages MA5 (85.576) and MA20 (83.357) both provide support below, while the long-term moving average MA100 (86.641) has also been reclaimed, with the three moving averages aligned in a bullish stack. Key resistance sits at 94.368 (60-day high); downside support lies at 89.000 (round number). Short-term upside momentum has strengthened noticeably; once 94.368 is effectively broken, medium-to-short-term upside space is expected to open up further; if it pulls back to test lower, the 89.000 level will be the first to face the test.

Precious metals markets weakened in tandem overnight, with Silver (XAGUSD) closing at 64.084 per ounce, falling sharply by 3.67%. In the Asian session at 05:45, it surged to 67.066 before turning weak, pulling back to 64.010 in the US session at 20:15. The 65 round number was lost intraday, and although an attempt was made to test the 67 mark during the session, it failed to hold above it; the surge-and-fall trajectory was identical to that of Gold. Key resistance sits at 67.000–67.066 (round number, day high); downside support lies at 62.000 (round number). The 67.000 level was briefly captured but could not be held, remaining an uncompleted breakout pattern-wise; if heavy volume attacks again subsequently and closes firmly above, the validity of the breakout will be confirmed; conversely, if 62.000 is lost, downside space may extend further.

Precious metals markets weakened on the same day, with Gold (XAUUSD) falling 119.5 points to close at 4,328.63 per ounce, down sharply by 2.69%. Intraday, after surging past 4,450.00, it failed to stand firm, and the breakout still awaits confirmation at close; moreover, two key levels—4,400 and 4,350—were lost in succession, giving short-term bears the upper hand. Key resistance sits at 4,450.00–4,452.23 (round number, 5-day EMA); downside support lies at 4,250.00 (major round number). Notably, Gold’s trading range this week is 4,322.77–4,472.08, with the current close located in the lower area of the range, and the 20-week moving average (4,371.45) has been lost, putting the medium-term structure under some pressure; however, the 100-week moving average still provides backing below, and the medium-term trend has not completely turned bearish. If gold prices can hold the 4,250.00 mark and reclaim 4,450.00, the adjustment may come to an end; if lost, the next support needs to be looked down at 4,065.47.

The Nasdaq (NAS100) fell 376.7 points to close at 29,108.6, down 1.28%. Intraday, it tested up to a day high of 29,541.9, but failed to stand firm above the 29,500 round number; in late trading, it pulled back near 29,000 where support was found, reclaiming the level by close. Key resistance sits at 29,470.8–29,500.0 (round number, 75-day SMA); downside support lies at 28,889.8 (10-day low, 20-day low). Both short-term moving average MA10 (29,329.5) and medium-term moving average MA50 (29,265.6) were lost, but MA100 (29,071.2) still provides support below, keeping the long-short intertwined pattern unchanged. If the index can stand above 29,500 again and close above it, the short-term adjustment may end; if it breaks below 28,889.8, look down toward 28,206.3.

The British Pound (GBPUSD) closed at 1.35148, down slightly by 0.24%. The intraday high of 1.35588 could not be held, with the close falling below MA20 (1.35472), though MA200 (1.34541) still provides medium-term support below. Immediate resistance sits at 1.35588 (day high); key resistance at 1.35472–1.35543 (round number, Fib 50.0%); downside support at 1.34420–1.34500 (round number, 100-day SMA). So far this week, the British Pound is down 0.12%, a relatively limited decline, with exchange rates in a repeated tug-of-war near 1.3500; directional choice may require waiting for more catalysts. If it reclaims 1.35588 and stands firm, the short-term slightly strong pattern is expected to continue; if it breaks below 1.34420, look down to the 1.34108–1.34173 support zone.

Key Levels

• XAUUSD —— Resistance: 4,450.00–4,452.23 (round number, 5-day EMA) / 4,547.81–4,550.00 (round number, Fib 23.6%) / 4,693.75–4,696.81 (10-day high, 20-day high); Support: 4,250.00 (major round number) / 4,065.47 (20-day low) / 3,942.97 (60-day low)
• XAGUSD —— Resistance: 67.000–67.066 (round number, day high) / 71.154 (10-day high, 20-day high) / 71.552 (60-day high); Support: 62.000 (round number) / 59.390 (20-day low) / 54.766 (60-day low)
• GBPUSD —— Resistance: 1.35472–1.35543 (round number, Fib 50.0%) / 1.36500–1.36554 (round number, previous week high) / 1.36750 (10-day high, 20-day high); Support: 1.34420–1.34500 (round number, 100-day SMA) / 1.34108–1.34173 (250-day SMA, 55-day SMA) / 1.31394 (60-day low)
• NAS100 —— Resistance: 29,470.8–29,500.0 (round number, 75-day SMA) / 29,740.1–29,768.3 (10-day high, Fib 38.2%) / 30,722.3 (60-day high); Support: 28,889.8 (10-day low, 20-day low) / 28,206.3 (last month low) / 27,500.0 (major round number)
• USOIL —— Resistance: 94.368 (60-day high) / 97.000 (round number) / 101.000 (round number); Support: 89.000 (round number) / 82.968–83.000 (round number, 75-day SMA) / 80.127–80.154 (10-day low, 200-day EMA)

So far this week, the British Pound is down 0.12%, Nasdaq is down 1.22%, Gold is down 2.71%, and Silver is down 3.17%. From a medium-term structural view, Gold is currently located below its 20-week moving average (4,371.45, approximately five months) and remains above its 100-week moving average (approximately two years), with its medium-term structure under some pressure.