Market Themes

Yesterday, up until the US market close, the strong performance of the US Dollar Index constituted a common suppressing factor across the market. Specifically, the US Dollar Index recorded a gain of 0.25%, and this momentum transmitted directly to safe-haven and risk assets: Gold (XAUUSD) fell 1.43%, Silver (XAGUSD) fell 0.91%, and the British Pound (GBPUSD) also pulled back 0.40%. The sole exception was driven by a recovery in risk appetite, with Nasdaq (NAS100) rising 0.38%. It is worth noting that internal commodity drivers showed clear divergence: the trends of Gold and US Crude Oil diverged, with the former falling 1.43% while the latter rose 0.92% against the trend. Given that the EIA crude oil inventory change was recorded at 0.095M, which was below expectations, we believe a single US dollar suppression logic should not be simple-mindedly applied to all asset classes, and one should be alert to independent drivers within the commodity sector.

Gold fell 1.43%; US Crude Oil rose 0.92%; Silver fell 0.91%; British Pound fell 0.40%; Nasdaq rose 0.38%.

On August 26, US Crude Oil (USOIL) closed higher at 82.317, rising slightly by 0.92%. In the European session at 09:15, it dipped to around 80.127 before stabilizing, and in the US session at 16:15, it touched 83.782. Although the 81 mark was lost intraday, it was immediately reclaimed, and subsequently the price broke above the 82 mark again and successfully stabilized above it. Observing from the moving average structure, short-to-medium-term moving averages MA10 (84.214) and MA20 (82.391) remain above current prices to exert suppression, while the long-term moving average MA200 (78.349) provides support below. The key resistance level is locked in the 83.977–84.000 range (covering the round number and the 75-day SMA); if it rises above 83.000 intraday but fails to hold firm, the validity of the breakout awaits confirmation by the close; conversely, if it can hold the 82 mark and attack on increased volume, upside space is expected to open up further.

The precious metals market weakened in tandem overnight, with Gold (XAUUSD) falling 66.8 pips, closing at 4,592.91 per ounce, a drop of 1.43%. In the Asian session at 22:45, it surged to 4,673.70 before turning weak, and in the US session at 15:15, it pulled back to 4,583.14. The 4,600 mark was lost intraday, indicating heavy short-term selling pressure. Key resistance sits at 4,696.81–4,700.00 (round number and previous day high), while downside support is seen at 4,500.00–4,502.67 (major round number and 10-day SMA). We believe this adjustment belongs to the short-term scope, and the medium-term bullish structure has not been fundamentally damaged; next, it remains to be observed whether effective buying support can be gained around 4,500, which will determine the nature of the subsequent adjustment.

The precious metals market weakened on the same day, with Silver (XAGUSD) closing at 68.101 per ounce, down slightly by 0.91%. Key resistance sits at 70.010 (10-day high, 20-day high), with downside support at 65.000–65.018 (major round number and 20-day EMA). Prices pulled back after surging past 69.000, indicating that the battle in this region has not yet decided a winner.

The British Pound (GBPUSD) closed at 1.35931, down slightly by 0.40%. Key resistance sits at 1.36497–1.36542 (round number and previous day high), while downside support lies at 1.35441–1.35500 (round number and Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level).

Nasdaq (NAS100) rose 111.2 points, closing at 29,342.1, a gain of 0.38%. Key resistance sits at 30,265.7 (10-day high, 20-day high), while downside support lies at 29,136.8–29,141.5 (55-day EMA and previous week low).

Key Levels

• XAUUSD —— Resistance: 4,696.81–4,700.00 (round number, previous day high) / 4,800.00 (round number) / 4,900.00 (round number); Support: 4,500.00–4,502.67 (major round number, 10-day SMA) / 4,324.60 (previous week low) / 4,198.90–4,200.00 (round number, 55-day SMA)
• XAGUSD —— Resistance: 70.010 (10-day high, 20-day high) / 75.000–75.069 (major round number, 60-day high) / 77.000 (round number); Support: 65.000–65.018 (major round number, 20-day EMA) / 62.557 (10-day low, previous week low) / 56.556 (20-day low)
• GBPUSD —— Resistance: 1.36497–1.36542 (round number, previous day high) / 1.36671–1.36750 (10-day high, 20-day high) / 1.38000 (round number); Support: 1.35441–1.35500 (round number, Fib 38.2%) / 1.35178–1.35221 (21-day SMA, 25-day EMA) / 1.32182 (last month low)
• NAS100 —— Resistance: 30,265.7 (10-day high, 20-day high) / 30,722.3 (60-day high); Support: 29,136.8–29,141.5 (55-day EMA, previous week low) / 28,500.0 (round number) / 27,500.0 (major round number)
• USOIL —— Resistance: 83.977–84.000 (round number, 75-day SMA) / 88.321 (10-day high, 20-day high) / 93.919–94.000 (round number, last month high); Support: 80.000 (major round number) / 74.423 (20-day low) / 67.409 (60-day low, last month low)

So far this week, Nasdaq is up 0.73%, Gold is up 0.34%, Silver is down slightly by 0.21%, and the British Pound is down 0.35%.

Gold’s trading range this week is 4,583.14 – 4,696.81, with the current close located in the lower area of the range.

From a medium-term structural view, Gold is currently above its 20-week moving average (4,386.19, approximately five months) and remains above its 100-week moving average (approximately two years); the medium-term trend remains intact.

Disclaimer: The above content represents general market information and data review only and does not constitute any investment advice, recommendation, or offer to buy or sell. CFDs and other leveraged products carry high risk and may lead to losses exceeding your initial investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results; please evaluate carefully according to your own circumstances.