Market Themes

On October 5, US interest rates and growth data diverged, and asset pricing adjusted accordingly. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI recorded 54.9, slightly below the expected 55.2, but its prices sub-index rebounded; S&P Global Composite PMI final reading recorded 58.4, with services activity reaching its strongest level since July 2021. The combination of still-strong growth and reignited price pressures pushed US Treasury yields to multi-year highs and strengthened the US Dollar. This backdrop exerted pressure on the Euro and crude oil, yet failed to disrupt the Nasdaq from setting new closing highs supported by earnings expectations and the AI narrative.

The drivers for precious metals and crude oil were not identical: gold and silver were linked more to rebounding inflation expectations and physical demand rather than geopolitical safe-haven flows.

The Nasdaq closed up 0.98% at 31,126.5 to set a new closing high, rising for a 5th consecutive trading session; US Crude Oil (WTI) closed down 2.59% at 90.971, falling for a 2nd consecutive session; Spot Gold gained slightly by 0.05% to close at 4,141.34, while Silver rose 1.16% to 61.054; the Euro fell 0.25% to 1.12219, reclaiming the 1.12 mark after touching a 17-month low intraday.

NAS100

The Nasdaq 100 Index (NAS100) closed at 31,126.5 on the day, up 0.98%, rising for a 5th consecutive trading session and refreshing its closing record. The intraday path was a drop followed by a rise: probing down to 30,743.2 at 09:30 during the European session, before gradually moving higher in the US session, touching an intraday high of 31,154.7 at 19:15 and maintaining high levels in late trading. This price action diverged from the macro backdrop of US Treasury yields rising to multi-year highs and a stronger US Dollar on the day—higher interest rates usually suppress high-valuation growth stocks, but earnings expectations and AI-related narratives outweighed rate pressure, with capital continuing to concentrate in mega-cap tech stocks.

From daily moving averages, the index closed above the MA5 (30,684.78), MA10 (30,615.29), and MA20 (30,026.12), with short- and medium-term moving averages in a bullish alignment, and both 5-day and 10-day highs were refreshed on the day. The 31,000 round-number mark was broken above and held firm on the M15 timeframe (26 bars closed above it after being touched). Outlook Focus: if yields continue to rise while the index can hold above 31,000, strength will extend; if it falls below that mark and drops back below the MA5, caution is required regarding pullbacks driven by renewed rate sensitivity.

US Crude Oil (WTI / Symbol: USOIL)

US Crude Oil (WTI) closed at 90.971 on the day, falling sharply by 2.59%, down for a 2nd consecutive trading session. The intraday path featured a spike followed by a pullback: briefly spiking to 93.551 at 22:00 in the Asian session before turning weak, pulling back to an intraday low of 90.438 at 18:30 in the US session, and not retesting intraday highs thereafter. Three round-number marks—91, 92, and 93—were surrendered in succession on the M15 timeframe, with the close remaining below 91, showing clear short-term pressure.

Supply-side improvements provided the main explanation for the day’s decline: Middle East exports recovering and the G7 releasing emergency stockpiles, combined with market expectations of Saudi Arabia lowering official selling prices, jointly eroded earlier geopolitical risk premiums. This differed from the driver behind precious metals—crude oil traded supply recovery, while gold and silver traded inflation expectations and physical demand. On daily moving averages, WTI closed below the MA5 (92.834) and MA10 (94.463), with the medium-term MA20 (97.3447) still exerting overhead resistance, leaving the short-term MA5 as the watershed for this move.

Outlook Focus: if WTI can reclaim the 91 mark and stand back above the MA5 (92.834), the decline may ease; if Middle East exports continue to recover and G7 stockpile releases materialize, downside space below 90 may open up, with attention turning to 90.388 (10-day low) and lower medium-term support below.

Spot Gold (XAUUSD)

Spot Gold (XAUUSD) closed at 4,141.34 on the day, up slightly by 0.05%, marking its 1st session of gains. The intraday path featured a spike followed by a pullback: briefly spiking to 4,170.37 at 08:15 in the European session before pulling back to an intraday low of 4,123.2 at 15:15 in the US session, recovering slightly in late trading. The 4,150 round-number mark failed to be held after spiking on the M15 timeframe (40 bars closed above while 84 bars closed below after being touched), failing to form a sustained closing center, indicating overhead selling pressure at that level.

Against the backdrop of US Treasury yields rising to multi-year highs and a stronger US Dollar, gold still managed to hold above 4,100, showing that rebounding inflation expectations partially offset the pressure from rising real yields—the day’s yield increase was accompanied by higher inflation expectations, raising the opportunity cost of holding gold while simultaneously strengthening inflation-hedging demand. On daily moving averages, gold closed below the MA5 (4,159.472), with the MA10 (4,211.726) and MA20 (4,272.652) still exerting overhead resistance.

Outlook Focus: the 4,150 mark serves as the short-term watershed; if yields continue to rise while gold fails to reclaim this level, it may retest 4,110.83 (10-day low); if yields pull back, upside space will open up.

XAGUSD

Spot Silver (XAGUSD) closed at 61.054 on the day, up 1.16%, marking its 1st session of gains, still outperforming gold despite rising yields and a stronger US Dollar. The intraday path was a drop followed by a rise without full recovery: probing down to an intraday low of 60.336 at 22:00 in the Asian session, testing up to an intraday high of 62.03 at 11:30 in the European session, and pulling back thereafter. The 61 round-number mark was broken above and held firm on the M15 timeframe (70 bars closed above after being touched), while a spike toward the 62 mark failed to hold (0 bars closed above after being touched).

Silver’s stronger elasticity relative to gold partially reflects its dual precious and industrial metal attributes, gaining additional buying support from rebounding inflation expectations and physical demand. On daily moving averages, silver closed above the MA5 (60.8664), but remains below the MA10 (62.4644) and MA20 (63.64475), with medium-term moving averages exerting resistance. Outlook Focus: the 61 mark serves as short-term support; if held, it may test 62 again; if broken below 60.336 (near the day low and 10-day low), weakness may extend toward 59.67.

EURUSD

The Euro (EURUSD) closed at 1.12219 on the day, down 0.25%, marking its 1st session of losses. The intraday path was a rise followed by a drop before closing near higher levels: spiking to 1.12606 at 22:45 in the Asian session before pulling back to a 17-month low of 1.11606 at 03:00 in the Asian session, subsequently reclaiming the 1.12 mark. The 1.12 round-number level was reclaimed after being tested on the M15 timeframe (46 bars closed above after being touched).

Elevated energy prices and French fiscal concerns formed the primary backdrop for Euro weakness, with US Dollar strength amplifying the decline. On daily moving averages, the Euro closed below the MA5 (1.12768), MA10 (1.133551), and MA20 (1.1439915), with moving averages in a bearish alignment. Outlook Focus: the 1.12 mark acts as short-term support; if lost, it may retest 1.11606 (day low, 10-day low); if US Dollar upside momentum wanes, a bounce to test the MA5 (1.12768) may occur.

Outlook Focus

Monitor whether the US 10-year Treasury yield can stabilize near multi-year highs: if it continues to move higher, pressure on Gold 4,150 and Silver 62 will increase, and Euro 1.12 support will be tested again; if yields pull back, room for the Nasdaq’s winning streak and precious metals bounce will open up. For crude oil, observe whether WTI can reclaim the 91 mark and MA5 (92.834); if Middle East exports continue to recover and G7 stockpile releases materialize, downside space below 90 may open up; conversely, if supply disruptions re-emerge, oil prices may stabilize near 90.4.

Overview of Key Levels

Instrument	Direction	Near R1 / S1	Medium R2 / S2	Far R3 / S3
XAUUSD	Resistance	4200.00–4202.01 Round number, 10-day EMA	4276.89–4280.66 Fib 50.0%, 21-day SMA, previous week high	4510.77 Last month high
XAUUSD	Support	4050.00 Round number	3959.60 60-day low	3750.00 Key round number
XAGUSD	Resistance	62.972–63.000 Round number, Fib 61.8%	64.219 Previous week high	71.138–71.154 60-day high, 250-day SMA
XAGUSD	Support	59.670 Previous day low, 10-day low	56.000 Round number	54.766 60-day low
EURUSD	Resistance	1.13907 Previous week high	1.14000–1.14086 Round number, Fib 50.0%, 21-day EMA	—
EURUSD	Support	1.11606 Day low, 10-day low	1.11000 Round number	1.09000 Round number
NAS100	Resistance	31500.0 Round number	32000.0 Round number	33000.0 Round number
NAS100	Support	30743.2–30768.6 Day low, 5-day EMA	30098.9–30122.3 10-day low, 25-day EMA	28771.1 20-day low, last month low
USOIL	Resistance	94.000–94.033 Round number, 25-day EMA	99.402 Previous week high	106.752 20-day high, 60-day high
USOIL	Support	86.447–86.518 100-day SMA, last month low	80.000 Key round number	74.423 60-day low

Resistance and support are each arranged from nearest to farthest: R1/S1 are the nearest, R3/S3 are the farthest.